{"id":11441,"date":"2024-01-07T10:00:02","date_gmt":"2024-01-07T15:00:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/?p=11441"},"modified":"2024-01-07T02:52:43","modified_gmt":"2024-01-07T07:52:43","slug":"michigan-state-basketball-northwestern-preview-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/?p=11441","title":{"rendered":"Michigan State basketball: Preview, prediction at Northwestern"},"content":{"rendered":"

Northwestern plays host to Michigan State basketball on Sunday night with an improved spot in the Big Ten standings on the line.<\/h2>\n

Michigan State basketball<\/a> looks to make it six in a row Sunday night on the north side of Chicago against Northwestern. Here\u2019s what to watch for and a prediction.<\/p>\n

Scouting Northwestern<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The Wildcats come into the matchup fresh off their worst performance of the season. After losing Terrence Shannon Jr. to suspension, Illinois thirty pieced the Wildcats on Tuesday in Champaign. It\u2019s been that kind of season for Northwestern. Chris Collins\u2019 group has impressive wins this season against Purdue and Dayton. They also have a repulsive loss at home against Chicago State to go with the drubbing from the Fighting Illini.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s put it this way. This year’s Northwestern basketball is not aesthetically pleasing. They move excruciatingly slow, ranking 350th out of 362 teams in adjusted tempo. Northwestern wants to play in the half court, rely on their defense, and out-execute their opponents. Northwestern owns some of the longest average possession lengths on offense and defense. They are comfortable playing late into the shot clock and want to make you uncomfortable in doing the same.<\/p>\n

After finding some success with this play style last season, Collins has tried to replicate it again this season. Despite their efforts to be a defensive grinder of a team, it\u2019s still an average defense by most metrics. Opponents are shooting well (particularly from three), grabbing offensive rebounds, and getting to the free throw line against the Wildcats. You won\u2019t get much in transition against this group, but if you\u2019re patient, you can score.<\/p>\n

Offensively, it\u2019s been even tougher for Northwestern. The only things they do particularly well are limit turnovers and hit threes. Their lack of offensive skill in the front court explains their below average effective field goal numbers in the paint. They don\u2019t want to play in transition, so they don\u2019t get offensive rebounds. They also don\u2019t get to the free throw line.<\/p>\n

Northwestern is led by fifth-year senior guard Boo Buie and Junior wing Brooks Barnhizer. Buie is a capable shooter, but he\u2019s most dangerous as a facilitator. Ty Berry and Ryan Langborg are the guys that Buie will look to find for open threes. Both players are shooting above 40 percent this year. Barnhizer is their best rebounder and disruptor on the defensive end. Senior Matthew Nicholson will see the majority of minutes at center, but he\u2019s a limited player offensively. He\u2019s used primarily as a rim protector and matchup counter piece for opponents with size.<\/p>\n

Michigan State update<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The Spartans are rolling. After their sluggish start, MSU has won five in a row. All five wins have come by double digits. They\u2019ve found their shooting touch from the outside, hitting 44 percent from three over the past five games. A.J. Hoggard and Jaden Akins have found some offense and given support to Tyson Walker.<\/p>\n

Walker\u2019s spectacular play is almost expected at this point. He\u2019s been tremendous all season, but he\u2019s taken it to another level over the past five games. During the win streak, Walker is averaging 20 points per game while shooting 50 percent from three. He\u2019s also maintained a 21-to-4 assist to turnover ratio across 145 minutes. Oh, by the way, he\u2019s come up with 15 steals while going 17-for-19 from the free throw line. Yeah, he\u2019s pretty good.<\/p>\n

But as impressive as Walker has been, Michigan State is at their best when they are sharing the basketball. The Spartans rank sixth in the country in assists per field goals made. So, while Walker is capable of having big games on his own, it\u2019s usually a bad sign for Michigan State if he\u2019s putting up 30. MSU\u2019s ball movement and scoring distribution has a strong correlation to their offensive success.<\/p>\n

Prediction<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The early line for this game has Michigan State as a 3.5-point favorite with a low total of 134.5. That low total is indicative of Northwestern\u2019s pace and Michigan State\u2019s defense. The Spartans now own a top-10 unit in defensive efficiency per KenPom.<\/p>\n

For as well as Michigan State has been playing, Sunday presents a new set of challenges. Northwestern\u2019s style is completely different from what MSU has been dealing with for the past month. The Spartans haven\u2019t scored fewer than 79 points during their winning streak. This game is going to be played in the 60\u2019s. Michigan State is going to have to execute in the half court and value possessions.<\/p>\n

MSU\u2019s offensive efficiency isn\u2019t sustainable, and there is likely a dud coming soon. But I\u2019m not sure if it will happen on Sunday. Like Penn State, Northwestern\u2019s strength is at guard. There just aren\u2019t many teams that are going to have an advantage over the likes of Walker, Hoggard, and Akins. Teams with athletic or scoring big men are Michigan State\u2019s kryptonite. That\u2019s not Northwestern.<\/p>\n

The Wildcats will be motivated at home after getting embarrassed against Illinois. But I do suspect many Chicagoland Spartans (like me) to be in attendance. MSU has what it takes to stop Boo Buie from creating. When he is contained, this Northwestern offense can get bogged down easily. Look for MSU to lean into the half court grind with their defense. Michigan State\u2019s rebounding and three-point defense are the difference.<\/p>\n

Final: Michigan State 68, <\/em>Northwestern 64<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A lot is on the line in this one.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":11463,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[187],"tags":[190,189,504],"class_list":["post-11441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-basketball","tag-michigan-state-basketball","tag-michigan-state-spartans","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11441","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11441"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11441\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/11463"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}