2. Tyson Walker vs. Braden Smith<\/strong><\/h3>\nAlright, enough about Edey. Because while he is Purdue\u2019s best player, his greatness is taken for granted at this point. Purdue\u2019s most important<\/em> player is Braden Smith. For as good as Edey was last season, Purdue fell short in March because of their guard play. Many believe Purdue is set to go far in March this year because of the progression of their guards; in particular Braden Smith.<\/p>\nFor Michigan State basketball, it’ll go as far as Tyson Walker can take it. After a torrid start to the season, Walker has slowed a little bit. He\u2019s battling through a groin injury, and he hasn\u2019t shot the ball as well from three in conference play.<\/p>\n
Both coaches know how important it is to get their guy going. As a result, I expect we\u2019ll see Walker on Smith and Smith on Walker. Best against best. The way it should be.<\/p>\n
While Smith is a capable scorer, he\u2019s deadly with the ball in his hands distributing to teammates. It helps when you have Edey down low and the third-best three-point shooting team in America around you. Nonetheless, Smith has been outstanding at stuffing the stat sheet and running the offense.<\/p>\n
The one area where Smith has been questionable this year is with turnovers. He\u2019s committed a turnover in every game this season and hasn\u2019t committed fewer than two since Dec. 21. That\u2019s a little worrisome going up against a defensive thief like Walker. He has had at least one steal in 12 straight games.<\/p>\n
The formula for a Michigan State basketball upset starts right here. Walker needs to win this matchup. The Spartans won\u2019t be able to keep pace with a Purdue offense that\u2019s firing on all cylinders. Making Smith uncomfortable is essential to slowing down the Boilermakers. It\u2019s a tough ask for a guy gutting through an injury. But at his best, he\u2019s capable of doing it. These matchups are why Walker came back to school. Let\u2019s see what he can do.<\/p>\n
3. Michigan State centers<\/strong><\/h3>\nOn one end of the floor, Purdue has the best center in America. On the other end, Tom Izzo has been playing a game of musical chairs with the position. Carson Cooper, Mady Sissoko, Jaxon Kohler, and Xavier Booker have all spent time trying to lock down a spot. Nobody has emerged. It\u2019s an obvious mismatch in this game, particularly on the glass.<\/p>\n
Edey is the main reason Purdue is the best rebounding team in the Big Ten. But they also get solid production from Trey Kaufman-Renn and Mason Gillis. Michigan State, on the other hand, is one of the worst. Tom Izzo is going to have to handle his substitutions with that in mind. The Spartans can\u2019t afford to give an offensive juggernaut like Purdue a bunch of second-chance opportunities.<\/p>\n
Because Michigan State\u2019s production at the position has been so unpredictable, Izzo is going to have to ride with the hot hand. Whoever is most active on the glass and engaged defensively needs to continue playing. On paper, MSU\u2019s best option is Carson Cooper. He\u2019s a capable rebounder and he has the length that could theoretically challenge Edey.<\/p>\n
However, that\u2019s going to be a lot easier said than done because of Edey\u2019s tendency to draw fouls. In reality, Michigan State might need all five fouls from each player to get through this game. To the disappointment of many Michigan State basketball fans, this doesn\u2019t project as a great matchup for Booker. His lack of strength is going to be exposed against Edey, and Matt Painter is too smart to let Edey guard him on the perimeter defensively.<\/p>\n
Instead, I suspect MSU will go with a rotation of Sissoko and Cooper for as long as the officiating crew allows them to. The Spartans can\u2019t be worried about getting offensive production out of the position. Rebounding is the top priority. If there is a weakness with this Purdue team, it shows up in the turnover department. If MSU can take care of the ball, they may be able to steal a couple of possessions. If they rebound well, they may be able to steal a few more.<\/p>\n
4. Officiating<\/strong><\/h3>\nLike it or not, officiating plays a huge part in every Purdue game because of, you guessed it, Edey. He\u2019s an impossible player to officiate. Because of his size, he swings his elbows into the heads of most defenders. The only way to defend him is to keep him out of the paint. To do that, you have to be physical. There\u2019s no way to lightly try and knock a 300-pound human off position.<\/p>\n
The end result is a lot of free throws for Purdue and not many for their opponent. Edey has gotten very good at playing defense without fouling. His length can cover up for his lack of quickness. It also allows him to recover quickly if he\u2019s beaten.<\/p>\n
I wasn\u2019t joking when I mentioned that Michigan State may need all 20 fouls from their big men. That\u2019s the way you have to play against Edey. You have to be physical. Make him work for every post touch, foul him hard, and make him earn it at the free throw line. After all, he is human. He gets frustrated. He gets tired.<\/p>\n
Again, this is all easier said than done. A lot of that physicality that\u2019s needed to play against Edey is dependent on how much the officials allow. A physical game favors Michigan State basketball. A whistle fest favors Purdue. It\u2019s almost a certainty that Michigan State will be outshot at the free throw line by Purdue. That comes with the nature of each team\u2019s offense. But it\u2019s not necessarily about the fouls that are called. It\u2019s about what won\u2019t be called. MSU needs a rugby game down low to beat Edey and Purdue.<\/p>\n
5. Mackey Arena<\/strong><\/h3>\nMichigan State hasn\u2019t won at Mackey Arena since February 20, 2014. The Spartans are 0-7 at Mackey Arena since then with an NCAA Tournament loss to cap their struggles. There\u2019s no shame in losing to Purdue in West Lafayette. Matt Painter has the program rolling and it\u2019s an extremely loud venue.<\/p>\n
The problem for Michigan State basketball is that it hasn’t been competitive. After losing by one point in overtime in 2016, the Spartans haven\u2019t been able to keep it any closer than 10 in their other five defeats.<\/p>\n
Living in the Chicago area, I\u2019ve gotten to know some Purdue fans. The Michigan State game is a big game for them every year. It\u2019s undoubtedly fueled by some of the epic games they\u2019ve played over the years. But they don\u2019t like how Izzo has taken some high-profile recruits out of Indiana. They also feel like Michigan State is a premiere program in college basketball. Beating the Spartans means something. My guess is they\u2019re also a little bit jealous of the success the Spartans have had in March compared to their own. The point is, they\u2019ll be revved up even beyond their usual level on a Saturday night with MSU in town.<\/p>\n
That will be particularly noticeable at the start. This Michigan State team isn\u2019t built to come from behind. Their offense is too inconsistent to put together scoring runs. Their rebounding isn\u2019t good enough to shut the water off defensively. MSU has to find a way to survive the first eight minutes of this game. While it\u2019s not his style, Tom Izzo will need to be aggressive with his timeout usage. If Purdue can extend this out to double-digits, it\u2019s really hard to see Michigan State clawing back in given all its disadvantages.<\/p>\n
Prediction<\/strong><\/h3>\nPurdue comes in favored by 10.5 points with a total of 145. Michigan State basketball hasn\u2019t been that big of an underdog all season. When you look at where both of these teams are at, with the advantage that Mackey Arena provides, the line makes sense.<\/p>\n
Truthfully, I think Zach Edey could name his stat line in this game. He dominated Michigan State in both matchups last year. In two games, Edey averaged 35 points and 15 rebounds. I haven\u2019t seen anything from Michigan State\u2019s interior defense to suggest that they can slow him down. They don\u2019t have the strength, length, athleticism, or savvy in any of their defensive options.<\/p>\n
Even if Edey has an off night, Purdue is a lethal 3-point shooting team. The Boilermakers are shooting over 40 percent from deep, with four players clearing that mark with their season averages. It\u2019s also worth noting that an \u201coff night\u201d for Edey is still probably good for 18 points and 10 rebounds. Purdue enjoys other huge advantages in rebounding and fouls drawn.<\/p>\n
But this has been a long week for Tom Izzo and Michigan State. After two straight losses people have called him \u201cwashed\u201d. They\u2019ve labeled this team \u201csoft\u201d. Nobody on earth is giving Michigan State a chance to win this game. This hopeless feeling is typically followed by something completely unexpected.<\/p>\n
Michigan State has nothing to lose in this game. As a true underdog for the first time in months, I think we\u2019ll get Michigan State\u2019s best effort. Oftentimes in these night-time home games on a Saturday, the buildup actually works against the home team. I\u2019m banking on some of that happening here. For what it\u2019s worth, aside from a 30-point drubbing of Rutgers, Purdue has looked a little vulnerable of late. Minnesota took the Boilermakers deep into the second half before their loss to Ohio State. Last weekend, they let an awful Michigan team hang around way too long.<\/p>\n
This is without a doubt the dumbest prediction I\u2019ve ever made. I hope Old Takes Exposed is reading. I\u2019m psychotic. But these two weeks’ worth of pain feels like the remedy needed to exorcize the demons of Mackey Arena. Michigan State competes on the glass, takes care of the ball, and gets an epic game from their backcourt. Edey may go for 45, but MSU doesn\u2019t let any of the other Boilermakers beat them from three.<\/p>\n
Prediction: Michigan State 74, <\/em>Purdue 72<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Can the Spartans shock the world?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":15368,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[187],"tags":[59,190,189,504],"class_list":["post-15334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-basketball","tag-featured","tag-michigan-state-basketball","tag-michigan-state-spartans","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15334","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15334"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15334\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/15368"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15334"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15334"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15334"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}