Admittedly, at first glance, I tend to agree. But I\u2019ve fallen into this trap before.<\/p>\n
Just last year, I loudly endorsed the over on Michigan State \u2013 which was set at 5.5. Granted, I never saw the Mel Tucker situation ruining the season after two games. But truthfully, I\u2019m not sure if it would have mattered. That was a bad<\/em> team.<\/p>\n This year, I want to take a more serious approach to Michigan State\u2019s season win total. To do that, I\u2019m going to attempt to do a game-by-game analysis to generate a point spread. The point spread indicates how likely Michigan State is to win a particular game. From there, we can derive a win\/loss record and match it up against the season-long projection.<\/p>\n For this exercise, we\u2019ll use ESPN\u2019s College Football Power Index. From my small amount of research, this seems to be the most accessible public database that mirrors what I\u2019m trying to do. ESPN notes that this is a \u201cpredictive rating system\u201d designed to project performance moving forward. This is very similar to a model that sportsbooks and advanced bettors would use when setting lines or placing wagers.<\/p>\n The nice thing about ESPN\u2019s FPI is that it has already calculated an Expected Points Added (EPA) metric. Essentially, this number states how many \u201cpoints above average\u201d a specific team can add compared to the \u201caverage\u201d team.<\/p>\n For example, Georgia ranks No. 1 in FPI in 2024 with a 26.8 EPA. Illinois is the closest team to average, according to FPI, with an EPA of 0.2. Taking the difference between these two values, the model projects Georgia to be about a 27-point favorite on a neutral field against Illinois.<\/p>\n This is where it\u2019s worth noting that there are often vast differences between point spreads and power ratings. This is where the sportsbooks intervene to adjust the spread based on any number of factors. Injuries, home-field advantage, weather, travel, and public perception are just a few of the things that are considered.<\/p>\n We can see this play out in Michigan State\u2019s Week 1 game against Florida Atlantic. This and the Michigan game already have point spreads available to wager on. According to FPI, Michigan State ranks 68th with an EPA of -1.0. Florida Atlantic comes in at 83rd<\/sup> with an EPA of -4.8. If FPI projects the Spartans as a 4-point favorite, why is the line set at Michigan State -11?<\/p>\n As stated, we have to factor in home-field advantage. Traditionally, that\u2019s worth about three points, if not more. We also have to factor in FAU traveling a long distance from Boca Raton to East Lansing, which is good for another point in the Spartans\u2019 favor. The remaining gap from 8-9 points to the current line of 11 is where the sportsbooks manipulate the line to attract action on both sides.<\/p>\n My best guess is that the sportsbooks project Michigan State football to be a heavily bet side. They\u2019re the bigger brand, at home, at night, with a new head coach. That\u2019s worth a few extra points to the spread to get it above the key number of 10.<\/p>\n Remember, the casino is not trying to predict the outcome of the game. They\u2019re trying to find the number that attracts equal money for both sides to secure a profit off the VIG (tax a bettor pays to lay -110).<\/p>\n \u00a9 Nick King\/Lansing State Journal \/ USA TODAY NETWORK<\/p><\/div>\n With that thought process in mind, here are some estimates for the point spread in every Michigan State game this fall. The lone exception is the Sept. 14\u00a0game against Prairie View A&M. FPI does not provide projections for FCS teams. Nonetheless, Michigan State will be massive favorites in a game they should win easily. For this exercise, we\u2019ll assume the same 42-point spread that was used in last year\u2019s game against FCS Richmond.<\/p>\n There are a couple of takeaways from this exercise.<\/p>\n First, outlining the game-by-game spreads illustrates just how pessimistic FPI is with Michigan State\u2019s 2024 team. The Spartans rate higher than just two FBS teams on their schedule and find themselves favored in only four games as a result.<\/p>\n Second, the gap between the Spartans and the elite programs in college football (Oregon, Ohio State, Michigan) is substantial. Michigan State might find itself in the worst spot of the season when it travels to Oregon. FPI projects Oregon as a 25.5-point favorite. Throw in the lengthy travel, short week, the physicality of playing Ohio State the week before, and 31 points might not be large enough.<\/p>\n Lastly, there are real opportunities<\/em> here for Michigan State to exceed expectations. If we count the games against FAU and Prairie View as wins, the Spartans need to win four out of six games that project to have a spread inside of a touchdown. Four of those games are at home. The road games against Boston College and Illinois are not intimidating road atmospheres.<\/p>\n So, while I\u2019m not rushing to my phone to put money on Michigan State football over 4.5 wins, I can see the path. Assuming they can win as a favorite (big assumption), you\u2019ll just need one more to secure a push. At the same time, this bet is open to quite a bit of variance given the unknowns with the roster, coaching staff, and the expected number of close games across this schedule.<\/p>\n In close games, any number of things can beat you. Missed field goals, bad officiating, fourth-down decisions, and so on. FPI projects Michigan State with 4.8 wins and 7.2 losses. It\u2019s not a coincidence at all that the line is set at five. It feels about right. Now, it\u2019s up to Jonathan Smith and this new group of Spartans to go out and prove them wrong.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Will the Spartans reach a bowl game?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":18286,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[173],"tags":[59,529,191,189,504],"class_list":["post-18256","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-football","tag-featured","tag-jonathan-smith","tag-michigan-state-football","tag-michigan-state-spartans","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18256","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18256"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18256\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18286"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18256"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18256"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18256"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Projecting spreads for each 2024 Michigan State football game<\/h3>\n
![\"Michigan](\"http:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/USATSI_23074019_168398951_lowres-2.jpg\")
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