{"id":19752,"date":"2024-11-02T09:00:24","date_gmt":"2024-11-02T13:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/?p=19752"},"modified":"2024-11-02T04:41:49","modified_gmt":"2024-11-02T08:41:49","slug":"michigan-state-football-3-keys-and-a-prediction-vs-indiana","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/?p=19752","title":{"rendered":"Michigan State football: 3 keys and a prediction vs. Indiana"},"content":{"rendered":"

Michigan State football<\/a> welcomes national darling Indiana to Spartan Stadium this Saturday. Typically, these teams are playing for the frequently forgotten, and criminally slept-on, Old Brass Spittoon. This year\u2019s game for Indiana has a lot more on the line. At 8-0, the Hoosiers will be looking to keep their Big Ten and College Football Playoff dreams alive.<\/p>\n

Michigan State will hope to play spoiler as Jonathan Smith looks for his first win over a ranked team.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what to watch for ahead of Saturday\u2019s matchup.<\/p>\n

1. Michigan State\u2019s mindset<\/strong><\/h3>\n

A lot of football related things have to go right for Michigan State to win on Saturday. But none of the happenings between the lines will matter if the Spartans don\u2019t strap in for 60 minutes. That focus is in question after a demoralizing defeat last week against Michigan. The Spartans dominated the box score, punched their rival in the face, and had a chance to tie the game late. They didn\u2019t and watched Michigan raise the Paul Bunyan Trophy for the third consecutive year.<\/p>\n

That game means more than the other 11 on the schedule. A lot<\/em> of emotions were exhausted last Saturday night. The shenanigans after the final whistle didn\u2019t do anything to help anyone move on. The challenge for Smith this week is to turn the page.<\/p>\n

Losing to Michigan sucks. But this is MSU\u2019s last opportunity for a win that would resonate with the national audience. Defeating an undefeated, top-15 team would be an outstanding achievement in year one.<\/p>\n

But that won\u2019t happen if Michigan State football still has its heads in Ann Arbor. Indiana is led by \u2013 and I mean this respectfully \u2013 a football psychopath. Curt Cignetti has injected energy and belief into this Indiana program that I never thought was possible.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t underrate that. It matters. Because from a talent standpoint, the Hoosiers aren\u2019t going to bring anything that MSU hasn\u2019t seen. The Spartans have played Oregon, Ohio State, and now Michigan. They\u2019ve seen the best. And for what Indiana may lack in talent compared to those teams, they\u2019ll make up for in \u201cwant to\u201d. If Michigan State can handle its own baggage, and get ready to play, they can think about the football piece. But matching Indiana\u2019s intensity is a non-negotiable on Saturday.<\/p>\n

2. Where is Indiana’s weakness?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

I\u2019ll take questions I never thought I\u2019d ask for $600, Alex. Seriously, where is the weakness with this Indiana team? Pick a stat\u2014any stat. Indiana likely ranks in the top 30 nationally.<\/p>\n

The Hoosiers are scoring 46.5 points per game. They have a top-25 passing and rushing offense on a yards-per-game basis. They are converting 54 percent of their third downs, only behind Army and Miami (FL). They have a plus-eight turnover margin, and lead the country with 47 red zone trips, scoring on all but three occasions.<\/p>\n

And, no, they are not just an offensive juggernaut. Indiana is holding their opponents to 14 points per game. They have a top-five run defense. They rank inside the top 25 in sacks and tackles for loss. And oh, by the way, they\u2019ve only allowed 18 red zone possessions in eight games.<\/p>\n

This team is profiling like a national title contender. And as much as I\u2019d love to put 2024 Indiana in the conversation with 2019 LSU, I don\u2019t believe this is sustainable. This is the product of an extremely favorable schedule. There are weaknesses on this team. And it\u2019s up to Smith to find them.<\/p>\n

There have been some small cracks in the foundation. Washington played them evenly despite a costly pick-six. Maryland and Northwestern were able to move the ball a bit. But nobody has been able to play a complete game. Most of that is Indiana\u2019s doing. But it\u2019s no coincidence that there are zero complete teams on the ledger so far.<\/p>\n

Michigan State football is far from a complete team itself. But they have that type of game in them. We saw it against Iowa. For MSU, this is less about keying in on Indiana\u2019s weaknesses, and more about focusing on themselves. The numbers and the tape aren\u2019t going to show a lot of areas to expose the Hoosiers. They\u2019ve been that good. But if the Spartans can play to their strengths and limit mistakes, Indiana will show some vulnerability.<\/p>\n

3. Kurtis Rourke<\/strong><\/h3>\n

If you watched any #MACtion over the past few seasons, you\u2019re likely not surprised by the success Kurtis Rourke has had this year. He was a baller at Ohio. And now, he\u2019s ballin’ out at Indiana. In seven games, Rourke has completed almost 75 percent of his passes while tossing 15 touchdowns.<\/p>\n

A thumb injury forced him to miss last week\u2019s game against Washington. After having two screws put into his right hand last week, he is on track to play against Michigan State football.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s good news for Indiana. But it doesn\u2019t come without concerns. Just because Rourke can play does not mean he\u2019s 100 percent. His accuracy has been his best attribute this season. When you have an injury to the throwing hand, that becomes your top concern. What kind of zip and touch will Rourke\u2019s passes have? How will it hold up throughout a four-hour game?<\/p>\n

Keep in mind, the high temperature in East Lansing on Saturday is 56 degrees. In the second half, the sun will be gone. We could see temperatures dip into the 30s. Anyone can tell you the football gets harder to grip in the cold. Will that become a factor?<\/p>\n

Backup Tayven Jackson was able to do enough to guide Indiana to a win last week against Washington. But he\u2019s not the same type of passer as Rourke. Indiana had the benefit of playing from ahead that entire game. If Cignetti has to turn to him in this game, that\u2019s a major advantage for Michigan State.<\/p>\n

Rourke\u2019s status in this game is tremendously important. Keep an eye on how he\u2019s throwing the ball early. MSU doesn\u2019t need him to be hobbled to win this game. But if he\u2019s a little bit off, that could be enough to slow down this Indiana offense.<\/p>\n

Prediction<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Indiana is an eight-point favorite. The total has ticked up to 52.5. It\u2019s worth noting that Indiana has been a cash cow against the spread. Since failing to cover in their opening win against FIU, the Hoosiers have been a perfect 7-0 against the number.<\/p>\n

To me, this line feels inflated. The sports books have been struggling to adjust to Indiana\u2019s resurgence, and this feels like an overcorrection. Call me crazy, but I don\u2019t think you should be giving more than a touchdown on the road with a quarterback who has an injured throwing hand.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m a believer in Indiana. I think they belong in the playoff discussion. But it\u2019s not going to look as easy as they\u2019ve made it look all season. Look around at college football. Every team has struggled at some point this season. And oftentimes, it\u2019s when you least expect it. This is the spot for Indiana.<\/p>\n

I was impressed to see Michigan State\u2019s offensive line play carry over from the Iowa game. I\u2019m a believer in their run defense. And if they can hold up there, I think Rourke\u2019s injury becomes a factor at some point.<\/p>\n

Spartan Stadium can be the difference here. Indiana will be playing in just their third road game this year. The other two came at Northwestern\u2019s soccer stadium and a half-empty Rose Bowl at UCLA. That matters, especially if Michigan State football can jump ahead early.<\/p>\n

For what it\u2019s worth, because of the uncertainty with Michigan State\u2019s resolve, I don\u2019t envision a close game where the Spartans lose. They\u2019re either going to win or lose by multiple scores.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m banking on Smith and the old calling card from Mark Dantonio. \u201cDon\u2019t let Michigan beat you twice\u201d.<\/p>\n

Final score: Michigan State 27, <\/em>Indiana 23<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

An upset would be nice.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":19763,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[173],"tags":[191,189,504],"class_list":["post-19752","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-football","tag-michigan-state-football","tag-michigan-state-spartans","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19752","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19752"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19752\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/19763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19752"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19752"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19752"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}