{"id":19949,"date":"2024-11-22T14:13:21","date_gmt":"2024-11-22T19:13:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/?p=19949"},"modified":"2025-02-11T06:25:41","modified_gmt":"2025-02-11T11:25:41","slug":"michigan-state-football-3-keys-and-a-prediction-vs-purdue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/?p=19949","title":{"rendered":"Michigan State football: 3 keys and a prediction vs. Purdue"},"content":{"rendered":"

Well, folks, the good news is that Michigan State football<\/a> will be playing on Friday night at Spartan Stadium. The bad news? I can\u2019t guarantee it will be particularly thrilling. The Spartans and Boilermakers will fight for superiority in the basement of the Big Ten on a cold, dark, November evening in East Lansing.<\/p>\n

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Here\u2019s what to watch for as Michigan State continues its quest for a bowl game.<\/p>\n

1. Purdue\u2019s defense<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Awful. Terrible. Horrendous. Those are words that come to mind when describing this Purdue defense. You can pick any stat you\u2019d like, and you\u2019ll find Purdue last, or near last, in the Big Ten. Scoring defense, rushing defense, total defense, interceptions, fumble recoveries, and opponent red zone conversions are all categories where Purdue ranks dead freaking last in the conference.<\/p>\n

Only Utah State, Ball State, and Kent State allow more points per game (38.9) than Purdue. In seven games against FBS opponents, Purdue has only held their opponents under 30 twice while allowing five opponents to score at least 40.<\/p>\n

They cannot stop the run \u2013 allowing over 200 yards per game. They can\u2019t get off the field on third down, allowing over 48 percent of attempts to be converted. They\u2019ve given up the most plays that gain at least 10 and<\/em> 20 yards in the conference. And they are dead last in the Big Ten in time of possession, meaning this unit is on the field a ton<\/em>.<\/p>\n

For as critical as people have been with this Michigan State football offense, they haven\u2019t faced a unit at the FBS level like this all season. Aidan Chiles and the offense should be salivating at the opportunity to take a turn against Ryan Walters\u2019 defense. If there was ever a spot for this offense to \u201cget right\u201d, it\u2019s right here.<\/p>\n

At the same time, that also comes with some pressure. If Michigan State can\u2019t move the ball against this sieve of a unit, things will get uncomfortable inside Spartan Stadium. But if I\u2019m Brian Lindgren and Jonathan Smith, I\u2019m lining up under center and running it at Purdue until they prove they can stop it. They haven\u2019t all season. In game No. 11, it\u2019s unlikely they find what they\u2019ve been missing.<\/p>\n

2. Michigan State\u2019s secondary<\/strong><\/h3>\n

If there\u2019s an area where Purdue has an advantage Friday, it\u2019s with their passing offense. Quarterback Hudson Card is an experienced passer who has flashed some promise in the past. He may look the best he has all season on Friday against a depleted Michigan State secondary.<\/p>\n

Jonathan Smith confirmed after the Illinois game that cornerback Charles Brantley and safety Malik Spencer are finished for the season. That means Michigan State\u2019s entire starting secondary from the preseason is on the shelf.<\/p>\n

The Spartans will be relying on reserves and inexperienced players again this week. The trial run against Illinois did not go well. Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin had their way last weekend, and Michigan State was only able to get their hands on one Luke Altmyer pass. While Purdue doesn\u2019t have those kinds of weapons at receiver, they do have a good tight end in Max Klare.<\/p>\n

While this is an air raid attack for Purdue, they\u2019ve found more success running the ball, averaging over 4.5 yards per carry. Michigan State has been decent against the run, so I\u2019d be surprised if this isn\u2019t a pass-heavy game plan from the Boilermakers.<\/p>\n

You know the stat by now. It\u2019s been six games since Michigan State football recorded a sack. That means Card should have time to sit back and let routes develop. If he\u2019s able to get into a rhythm, we could be in for a bit of a shootout. But if MSU can hang tough in coverage, they should come up with enough stops. After all, this is still the worst offense from a scoring perspective in the conference at just 17 points per game.<\/p>\n

3. Motivation<\/strong><\/h3>\n

This was alluded to in the open, but this game on Friday is as \u201coff the radar\u201d as you can get with Big Ten football. At 1-9, without a win against an FBS team, Purdue is playing for pride, and perhaps their head coach\u2019s job. How much does that matter to them? We\u2019ll find out.<\/p>\n

Michigan State, in theory, is the one with something more to play for. They can become bowl-eligible with wins against Purdue and Rutgers to close their season. Do they care about that? Do bowl games mean what they used to? Again, we\u2019ll find out.<\/p>\n

At this point in the season, \u201cshowing up\u201d is not as much of a given as it was in September and October.<\/p>\n

To make matters worse, Spartan Stadium isn\u2019t going to provide much juice. The state of both teams, combined with the cold weather and the ridiculously late start time, is going to keep a lot of MSU fans at home.<\/p>\n

Sometimes you\u2019re the lamp, other times you\u2019re the generator. On Friday night, these teams might have to find more self-motivation than normal. That\u2019s where leadership can be key. I\u2019ll be curious to see if this is a spot where Chiles\u2019 captaincy is validated. It\u2019s been a tough season, but this game represents a rare opportunity for this offense to find some swagger. We should find out a lot about the character of this MSU football team on Friday night.<\/p>\n

Prediction<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Michigan State is a two-touchdown favorite at home. The total is sitting at 48.5. Here is some free, unsolicited financial advice. Do not bet on this game. Take the money and donate it to the MSU NIL fund. Or your local animal shelter. Better yet \u2013 buy someone important in your life a nice gift.<\/p>\n

Because while this line is telling of how bad this Purdue team is, Michigan State football shouldn\u2019t be trusted with your money. Off a bye week, they weren\u2019t impressive in any phase of the game in a 22-point loss to Illinois. And don\u2019t forget, these teams feel the same way about each other. MSU looks at Purdue as an opportunity to take out some frustrations. But Purdue is looking at the Spartans as their last chance to get a Big Ten victory.<\/p>\n

Because of that, nothing would surprise me. The atmosphere and feelings surrounding this game are rather sad. Both fan bases expected better this season.<\/p>\n

Michigan State hasn\u2019t been favored since their game against Prairie View A&M. They shouldn\u2019t be giving two touchdowns to anybody. Their tendency to commit penalties and turn the ball over makes them liable to lose to anybody.<\/p>\n

Still, Michigan State has Nick Marsh, Nate Carter, and Montorie Foster to throw at a bad Purdue defense. As long as Aidan Chiles doesn\u2019t lose the turnover battle, MSU should be able to score. Outside of an outlier performance against Illinois, this Purdue offense has been as lifeless as their defense. Even with a wounded MSU secondary, I\u2019m not sure Hudson Card has the receivers to take advantage. It won\u2019t be a work of art, but Michigan State keeps their bowl hopes alive.<\/p>\n

Final score: <\/em>Purdue 17, Michigan State 31<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What must the Spartans do to beat Purdue?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":19952,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[173],"tags":[59,191,189,504],"class_list":["post-19949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-football","tag-featured","tag-michigan-state-football","tag-michigan-state-spartans","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19949"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19949\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/19952"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}