{"id":20891,"date":"2025-03-02T07:30:47","date_gmt":"2025-03-02T12:30:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/?p=20891"},"modified":"2025-03-02T03:45:04","modified_gmt":"2025-03-02T08:45:04","slug":"michigan-state-basketball-scouting-report-and-a-prediction-vs-wisconsin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/?p=20891","title":{"rendered":"Michigan State basketball: Scouting report and a prediction vs. Wisconsin"},"content":{"rendered":"

Michigan State basketball<\/a> will look to cap an improbable five-game stretch with a win at home against Wisconsin. It won\u2019t be easy, but for the first time in almost two weeks, the Spartans will have the Breslin Center crowd behind them.<\/p>\n

From an analytical standpoint, Wisconsin will be the best team the Spartans have faced all year.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s get to know these Badgers better before dissecting the matchup and offering a prediction.<\/p>\n

Scouting Wisconsin<\/strong><\/h3>\n

When you think of Wisconsin basketball, you typically think of a slow, offensively challenged group that wins with an ugly brand of hoops. Not this year, though. Wisconsin features one of the best offenses in the country, scoring with remarkable efficiency. The Badgers feature a top-10 offense, anchored by the best free throw shooting team in America.<\/p>\n

Wisconsin leads the Big Ten in 3-point shooting percentage, effective field goal percentage, and overall offensive efficiency. And unlike most high-scoring teams in today\u2019s game, the Badgers don\u2019t push the tempo to do it. This is still a very patient offense that\u2019s willing to work defenses for however long it takes to get the best shot.<\/p>\n

Last spring, Greg Gard was left out in the cold when A.J. Storr and Chucky Hepburn left the program over NIL concerns. With few options, Gard turned to the transfer portal, where he convinced John Tonje to come to Madison. It\u2019s been the most successful pairing of the off-season cycle.<\/p>\n

Tonje enters Sunday\u2019s game as the fifth-most efficient player in college basketball. His shooting splits (38 percent from three, 57 percent from two, 91 percent from the free throw line) are remarkable. At 6-foot-5, he\u2019s able to do a little bit of everything, averaging 19.5 points and five rebounds per game. Tonje can catch fire at any moment, but he becomes lethal when he\u2019s able to get to the free throw line. He\u2019s attempted at least 10 free throws six different times this season, all Wisconsin victories. That also makes him extremely important at the end of games if Wisconsin has a lead.<\/p>\n

While Tonje is the featured star for Gard, he has plenty of help. John Blackwell has been a Robin to Tonje\u2019s Batman for most of this season. The sophomore guard is not as effective as a shooter, but he\u2019s an exceptional rebounder from the guard position.<\/p>\n

Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter anchor the interior for Wisconsin. Standing at 7-foot and 6-foot-11, respectively, both players present difficult matchups because of their shooting capability. Both are shooting the three at better than 36 percent, and neither is afraid to let it fly. In their only game against Michigan State basketball last season, Winter and Crowl combined to hit three of four from deep.<\/p>\n

But if Wisconsin can\u2019t make a deep run in the NCAA tournament, it will likely be because of their defense. It\u2019s still a top 40 unit nationally, but the Badgers have been able to mask some of their issues by outscoring teams. We saw this on display last weekend against Oregon. Wisconsin went cold down the stretch, and they weren\u2019t able to string together enough stops to hold off the Ducks.<\/p>\n

The Badgers don\u2019t force turnovers. They are just OK at defending the rim, and they are vulnerable against a team that can knock down 3-pointers. This is a roster that has good size, but limited athleticism. Crowl and Winter are big, lumbering forwards that are slow to recover, as evidenced by Wisconsin\u2019s almost non-existent block percentage.<\/p>\n

One name to watch on Sunday is Max Klesmit. The senior guard has been battling an injury since early January and played just five minutes in Tuesday\u2019s win against Washington. Even though he is in the midst of a bad offensive season, the Badgers don\u2019t have a lot of backcourt depth. If Klesmit is limited or unavailable, his minutes will likely fall to true freshman Jack Janicki, who has only played sparingly this season.<\/p>\n

Michigan State update<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Tre Holloman\u2019s half-court heave that beat Maryland on Wednesday made Michigan State basketball the story of the sport. While the shot was incredible, the bigger story is the four-game winning streak MSU has put together.<\/p>\n

Wins at Illinois, Michigan, and Maryland, with a home win against Purdue, have vaulted the Spartans up to a 2-seed in most NCAA tournament projections. It has also put MSU in the driver\u2019s seat as far as a Big Ten title is concerned.<\/p>\n

Now, it\u2019s time to get greedy.<\/p>\n

Even though nobody could have anticipated a 5-0 record during this stretch, a loss at home to Wisconsin after getting the first four would feel deflating. Not to mention, Michigan keeps finding ways to win, staying tied atop the Big Ten standings with Michigan State basketball.<\/p>\n

The identity of this MSU team is slowly shifting from one built off transition offense and alley-oops to one that drowns you defensively. The Spartans always play tough defense under Tom Izzo, but this year\u2019s team takes a certain pride in it that we haven\u2019t seen in quite some time.<\/p>\n

The Spartans are up to sixth in defensive efficiency. That would be their highest ranking, according to KenPom, since 2012. MSU\u2019s 97.4 rating in conference is far and away the best. And the gap between them and the second best is greater than the gap that separates teams ranked 2-7.<\/p>\n

Michigan State basketball has also continued to feast on the glass. The Spartans are second in the Big Ten in both offensive and defensive rebounding, with almost 40 per game. It\u2019s no coincidence that their best work has come during this four-game win streak, where Michigan State holds a 143-115 rebounding advantage over their opponents.<\/p>\n

The Achilles heel for the Spartans continues to be outside shooting. While MSU is over 32 percent from three in Big Ten play, it\u2019s still the final piece that is preventing this offense from taking off. But the Spartans have been able to survive these shooting woes because they\u2019ve been better at defending the three than they have at making them.<\/p>\n

That will be a fascinating matchup to watch on Sunday. Wisconsin, the conference\u2019s best 3-point shooting team, against Michigan State\u2019s top-ranked 3-point defense. We know Michigan State basketball is used to winning games with little help from beyond the arc. Wisconsin is not. And while I\u2019ve been predicting some positive regression for Michigan State\u2019s opponents for a few games now, it hasn\u2019t come. But if there was ever a time for it, Wisconsin is the team that can do it. The Badgers hit 12 out of 30 attempts in a road win at Purdue on Feb. 15.<\/p>\n

Prediction<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Michigan State is a 4.5-point favorite in East Lansing on Sunday afternoon. Vegas, along with most analytical rankings, sees these teams as near equals.<\/p>\n

Michigan State\u2019s home crowd provided a sizable advantage in victories against Oregon and Purdue. With the momentum the Spartans have created, I\u2019d expect more of the same on Sunday given the magnitude of this game.<\/p>\n

Wisconsin has been solid on the road. But outside of their win at Mackey Arena, the Badgers haven\u2019t beaten a top-50 opponent away from home.<\/p>\n

As far as the matchup goes, once again, I think it favors Michigan State. The Spartans have options when it comes to defending Tonje. Jaden Akins will draw the assignment early, but I\u2019m sure we\u2019ll see Coen Carr take a shift as well. Right now, if you\u2019re Tom Izzo, you feel good about those two guarding anyone not named Cooper Flagg or Johni Broome.<\/p>\n

The best-case scenario for Wisconsin is an active, but limited Max Klesmit. That means a lot of minutes for Kamari McGee, John Blackwell, and Tonje. That\u2019s bad news against the Spartans. They\u2019ll rotate guards all afternoon and wear them down. Michigan State has held three of their last four opponents without a field goal for the final four minutes of the game.<\/p>\n

Defensively, I\u2019m getting Purdue vibes when it comes to the Badgers. Their metrics are shaky, and likely inflated by domination against the bottom of the league. Facing an MSU offense with a confident Jase Richardson and Tre Holloman could expose some warts.<\/p>\n

And while Michigan State basketball may not be able to hold the Wisconsin sharpshooters to 28 percent for the game, they will find life more difficult on the road against MSU\u2019s defense. I\u2019m not at all confident that Wisconsin can win a game where they don\u2019t shoot it well.<\/p>\n

But most of all, I can\u2019t bet against this Michigan State team right now. They have that look about them. And being able to cap this murderous stretch with an exclamation point is a tremendous motivator. At home, Michigan State gets the job done. And once again, it\u2019s with defense.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Michigan State 72, <\/em>Wisconsin 66<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A win here would cap off an unreal stretch.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":20897,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[187],"tags":[59,190,189,504,211],"class_list":["post-20891","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-basketball","tag-featured","tag-michigan-state-basketball","tag-michigan-state-spartans","tag-news","tag-tom-izzo"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20891","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=20891"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20891\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/20897"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=20891"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=20891"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=20891"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}