Man, what a way to start the weekend on Saturday at high noon in East Lansing, Michigan. Duke vs. Michigan State basketball on national television. These teams have met frequently in the Champions Classic and the NCAA Tournament. But it\u2019s rare that we see these teams tangle on campus.<\/p>\n
With the betting line set around a pick \u2018em (Michigan State is a one-point favorite), I thought it would be interesting to dissect the most likely path to a victory for either side. We\u2019ll start with the visitors.<\/p>\n
When scouting the Blue Devils, the number one concern for Michigan State is how they match up physically. The Blue Devils are built like an NBA team. They don\u2019t play anybody shorter than 6-foot-4. And yet, Patrick Ngongba is their only contributor over 6-foot-8.<\/p>\n
That makes Duke extremely versatile from a defensive standpoint. And it\u2019s reflected in their metrics. Currently, the Blue Devils have the best defense in the nation, according to KenPom. That\u2019s fueled by the nation’s best effective field goal percentage defense, with opponents shooting a bone chilling 40.3%.<\/p>\n
The other metric that stands out with the\u00a0Duke defense is their average possession length. The Blue Devils are defending, on average, for 19.1 seconds per possession. That\u2019s among the longest in the country. Meaning, Duke is defending deep into the shot clock, and still not allowing made baskets.<\/p>\n
We\u2019ve seen teams with athletic wings and forwards give Michigan State problems before. Just look back to their elite eight loss against Auburn. And to a lesser degree, their win against Ole Miss two days before that. This MSU team is a little better equipped to handle that than last year\u2019s team, thanks to the additions of Trey Fort, Jordan Scott, and Cam Ward (more on him later).<\/p>\n
But Michigan State\u2019s most important player (Jeremy Fears Jr.) is going to be at a size disadvantage on Saturday. And this is, without question, the best defensive unit Fears will face as quarterback of this Michigan State team.<\/p>\n
Simple game, huh? I hate the \u201cmake or miss\u201d game analysis when it comes to basketball. But sometimes, you\u2019ve got to call it like you see it. Duke is going to take a lot of three pointers. At the moment, 47% of their shot attempts are coming from downtown.<\/p>\n
If they make 12-to-15, they\u2019re going to be nearly impossible to beat. If not, then this is a game Michigan State basketball can win.<\/p>\n
Despite the volume, Duke is not a great three-point shooting team (36%). Isaiah Evans is the name to watch. Through eight games, he\u2019s already chucked up 62 attempts. But even with heavy volume, he\u2019s still a career 39% shooter, and demands respect from the MSU defense.<\/p>\n
Caleb Foster (45% this year) is performing well above his career marks as a third-year player. But he\u2019s not nearly the volume shooter that Evans is. Duke also brings a couple options off the bench in Nikolas Khamenia and Darren Harris who will be in the game to knock down threes.<\/p>\n
The wild card is Cameron Boozer. He\u2019s a threat from outside, but if you\u2019re MSU, you let him shoot out there all he wants. Because inside, he\u2019s a beast, shooting 65% from the field compared to just 37% from deep. Speaking of Boozer, let\u2019s talk about this guy.<\/p>\n
Good segway. Cameron Boozer is a problem. It\u2019s disrespectful to him that I\u2019ve waited this long to mention him in depth. Because this is the guy that can single handedly win you these types of games.<\/p>\n
Boozer is currently the number one rated player in KenPom\u2019s analytical rankings. He\u2019s averaging close to a double double, with 23.6 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. And as if that weren\u2019t enough, he\u2019s an exceptional passer for his size and position.<\/p>\n
The scary thing for MSU is that he may just be getting started. He\u2019s coming off his two best games from a scoring perspective, and it wasn\u2019t against cupcakes. 35 points against Arkansas, followed by 29 against Florida. In those games, he went 18-of-26 in the paint.<\/p>\n
Even in this young season, Boozer has shown impressive consistency with his scoring and rebounding. That matches up with the scouting report out of high school that described him as a player with a remarkably high floor.<\/p>\n
At 6-foot-9 and 250 pounds, he\u2019s a matchup problem for everybody in college basketball. His ability to score inside and out gives him multiple ways to beat you. And his “magnetic” hands, combined with his size, give him an advantage as a rebounder.<\/p>\n
Simply put, these are the guys that set programs like Duke apart from the rest. And nobody knows that better than MSU. Whether it\u2019s Kyrie Irving, Paolo Banchero, or Jahlil Okafor, the Spartans have been beaten in this spot before by Duke teams that have 1.01 NBA talent. Boozer could be that next name.<\/p>\n
Michigan State basketball’s biggest advantage is on the boards. Not surprising with a Tom Izzo team. But I don\u2019t see how they get the job done without a significant advantage in rebounding.<\/p>\n
While Boozer is a great rebounder on his own, he doesn\u2019t have a ton of help. And that makes some sense, given Duke\u2019s roster construction that is heavy on lengthy wing players.<\/p>\n
Per KenPom, MSU holds the advantage in offensive and defensive rebounding metrics. Duke\u2019s defensive rebounding numbers are particularly suspect, ranking near 100th<\/sup> nationally. Michigan State can exploit that.<\/p>\n Whether it\u2019s the size advantage the Spartans will have with Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper, or Coen Carr and Cam Ward flying in from the wing positions. I\u2019m not taking anybody in a rebounding contest over MSU at this point in the season.<\/p>\n And they\u2019re going to need it, too. We talked about Duke\u2019s length on defense, and how deep into possessions they\u2019re able to defend. The Spartans aren\u2019t going to get as many clean looks as they\u2019re used to. And they may put up some ugly attempts to beat the shot clock. That\u2019s okay, as long as they\u2019re able to grab some of those misses to create second chance opportunities.<\/p>\n Conversely, on defense, if MSU can grab Duke’s misses, it should give them the opportunity to get out in transition. ESPECIALLY<\/em>, if Duke continues to launch three pointers that create long rebounds. That\u2019s important, because the Spartans do not want this to become a half court grinder.<\/p>\n It\u2019s hard to believe that a true freshman playing fewer than 20 minutes per game could be so important in this game. But I\u2019m sticking my neck out a bit here by saying that an effective Cam Ward is essential for Michigan State to win.<\/p>\n He missed the Iowa game after suffering a wrist sprain in the win against North Carolina. Indications are that he was close to playing against Iowa. Part of me wonders if Tom Izzo knows how much they\u2019ll need him this weekend.<\/p>\n Physically, Ward is Michigan State\u2019s best answer to Cameron Boozer. He gives up a little in terms of girth, but his length could give Boozer some problems. And like Boozer, Ward is comfortable battling in the paint. I used the word \u201cbattling\u201d intentionally there. Ward will understand the challenge and take it personally. His intensity can\u2019t be simulated.<\/p>\n Matchup aside, when Ward has played this season, he\u2019s been important for MSU. Even if he isn\u2019t tasked with guarding Boozer, he\u2019s still an important piece in the rotation. Ward is a high-level rebounder, efficient scorer, and energy booster off the bench. We\u2019ll see how the wrist affects his game. Because MSU likely needs more than just his presence. The Blue Devils need to feel that he\u2019s there.<\/p>\n It\u2019s been a hell of a week for Michigan State athletics. Between the Pat Fitzgerald hire, the Greg and Dawn Williams gift, the \u201cThis is Sparta\u201d campaign, and the blowout against Iowa, there\u2019s a lot to smile about for Spartans.<\/p>\n Meaning, everyone should be in a jolly mood on Saturday as they file into Breslin Center. Under normal circumstances, this is one of the premier home court advantages in college basketball. But given the circumstances, it should be even rowdier than normal.<\/p>\n That\u2019s noteworthy, because this is Duke\u2019s first road game in a big-time environment. Yes, I know they played at Army. But with all due respect to the fine men and women at West Point, this is a different atmosphere.<\/p>\n Cameron Boozer hasn\u2019t played in an arena like this. And home court advantage is the great equalizer in college basketball. We\u2019ve already seen the Breslin crowd will MSU to one win this season. We\u2019ve seen them do it countless times over the years. If MSU is able to get this done, you can bet the crowd will have something to do with it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Man, what a way to start the weekend on Saturday at high noon in East Lansing, Michigan. Duke vs. Michigan State basketball on national television. These teams have met frequently in the Champions Classic and the NCAA Tournament. But it\u2019s rare that we see these teams tangle on campus. With the betting line set around […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":22443,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[187],"tags":[59,190,189,955,504],"class_list":["post-22858","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-basketball","tag-featured","tag-michigan-state-basketball","tag-michigan-state-spartans","tag-michigan-state-vs-duke","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22858","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=22858"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22858\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/22443"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=22858"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=22858"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=22858"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}2. Cam Ward Plays\u2026 Effectively<\/strong><\/h3>\n
3. Breslin Center Goes Nuclear<\/strong><\/h3>\n