For the 28th consecutive season, Spartan fans will get to watch their team play an NCAA Tournament game. This year\u2019s Michigan State vs NDSU first-round game will tip off on Thursday evening at 4:05 p.m. ET.<\/p>\n
The Summit League champion Bison are the 14-seed in the East Region. As 16.5-point underdogs, the Bison will need a flawless effort to beat Michigan State. But if they are going to do so, here are some key areas that will likely swing things in their favor.<\/p>\n
You don\u2019t have to beat Michigan State on the boards to beat them. But you have to keep pace with them. Fortunately for North Dakota State, the metrics indicate that they can. They own the 17th-best defensive rebounding percentage in college basketball, a remarkable figure for a mid-major.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s even more impressive when you consider the fact that the Bison are one of the smallest teams in the country. They have a pair of centers in 6-foot-9 Treyson Anderson and 6-foot-10 Joah Feddersen. But they rarely play together. And everyone else is 6-foot-6 or smaller.<\/p>\n
North Dakota State packs their defense into the paint, daring opponents to shoot over them. Their proximity to the basket allows them to grab misses. And it\u2019s been an effective strategy because opponents are only shooting 33.5% from three against them.<\/p>\n
Michigan State is not a great shooting team. So, this strategy could work. In fact, it may work as long as the Bison are able to grab MSU\u2019s misses.<\/p>\n
But if they can\u2019t, then this all falls apart. On the other end of the court, the Bison are a decent offensive rebounding team as well. The problem is that Michigan State is the best defensive rebounding team in America. Whatever contributions they\u2019re used to getting from second chances are going to be greatly diminished.<\/p>\n
This is the most important factor in this game. If North Dakota State can keep MSU off the offensive glass, they could make this interesting if the Spartans have an off-shooting day. It\u2019s also critical that they grab some offensive rebounds to keep Jeremy Fears and Co. out of transition.<\/p>\n
That last point is key to this factor as well. Because the Bison are a good shooting team. As a team, they\u2019re shooting almost 36% on the season. Individually, NDSU has five players that shoot at least 37% from three.<\/p>\n
Nearly 36% of the Bison\u2019s points come from beyond the arc. Their size limitations don\u2019t allow them to score much in the paint. Against MSU, that size disadvantage will be exacerbated. So, it feels safe to say that the Bison are going to have to knock down threes to win this game.<\/p>\n
If they\u2019re cold, then this could get out of hand. MSU should be able to flex their muscles on the glass. And missed three pointers usually create long rebounds, which the Spartans are excellent at using to start their transition game.<\/p>\n
As mentioned in the first point, Michigan State needs to hit some threes in this game as well. The data says that NDSU is going to let them shoot. And the Spartans could find life challenging on the glass. Believe it or not, NDSU\u2019s defensive rebounding percentage would rank second in the Big Ten.<\/p>\n
And at a certain point, it becomes a math equation. If one team is hitting threes, and the other is not, well, three points will always be worth more than two. There\u2019s a formula here for an upset. The Bison have the shooters to catch fire. And MSU could start to squeeze the ball and settle for jump shots down the stretch. And that\u2019s exactly what the Bison want them to do because of point number three.<\/p>\n
3. The Interior<\/strong><\/p>\n This is typically the biggest mismatch in these games between high and mid-major teams. This will be no exception in Thursday\u2019s Michigan State vs NDSU game. Michigan State should dominate on the interior. North Dakota State\u2019s two-point defense ranks 221st in America.<\/p>\n They want to space the floor with four guards and one center. And while that could force Michigan State to play Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper separately, the Spartans have other options. Cam Ward, Coen Carr, and Jordan Scott are all lengthy defenders that can defend multiple options for the Bison.<\/p>\n And unlike North Dakota State, Michigan State is going to try and play through the post with their big men. That\u2019s going to force Feddersen and Anderson to defend without fouling. Because behind those two, there is nobody else for the Bison.<\/p>\n It\u2019s a different style that North Dakota State hasn\u2019t seen a lot of. The Summit League is filled with finesse offensive styles, with rosters constructed similarly to the Bison. Keep in mind, NDSU did not face a top 100 KenPom team all season. Nor did they play a power conference team. We\u2019ll see if there is any adjustment period to MSU\u2019s size, tenacity, and athleticism.<\/p>\n With these teams separated by nearly 100 spots on KenPom, it\u2019s no surprise that Michigan State is a big favorite \u2014 16.5 is a big number on a neutral court where all of the pressure is on Michigan State.<\/p>\n Dave Richman is a veteran coach, making his fourth appearance in the NCAA Tournament with North Dakota State. He\u2019s still looking for his first win in the round of 64. This is a veteran team that doesn\u2019t rely on any freshman, and just one sophomore.<\/p>\n Maybe my fandom is blinding me, but I don\u2019t see the type of rocking chair victory that you hope for in the round of 64 as a 3-seed. This North Dakota State team is built similarly to the Spartans. And they matchup well in some of the areas that are essential.<\/p>\n But\u2026 let\u2019s take a step back for a second. North Dakota State doesn\u2019t have any advantages in this game. Michigan State is a better version of them. So, if the Spartans are going to be better at the things that helped the Bison get here, where does that leave them?<\/p>\n Outside of their troubles with Rutgers, Michigan State has taken care of business against this level of competition. And since dropping that First Four game to UCLA in 2021, Tom Izzo is 4-0 in the round of 64.<\/p>\n But 16.5 is too large for me to endorse. Especially with the Bison\u2019s ability to get hot from three. MSU could have this in the bag from the tip, only to be outscored 12-2 in the final three minutes to win by 15.<\/p>\n Instead, I\u2019ll look to bet Michigan State live at a discount. We\u2019ve seen them start slow on several occasions this year. And if NDSU is hitting shots early on, we might be able to snag MSU under double digits. Michigan State advances. And that\u2019s all that matters.<\/p>\n Prediction: Michigan State 81, <\/em>North Dakota State 66<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" For the 28th consecutive season, Spartan fans will get to watch their team play an NCAA Tournament game. This year\u2019s Michigan State vs NDSU first-round game will tip off on Thursday evening at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Summit League champion Bison are the 14-seed in the East Region. As 16.5-point underdogs, the Bison will need […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":23879,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[187],"tags":[915,59,190,189,504],"class_list":["post-23952","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-basketball","tag-college-basketball","tag-featured","tag-michigan-state-basketball","tag-michigan-state-spartans","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23952","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=23952"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23952\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/23879"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=23952"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=23952"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spartanshadows.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=23952"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Prediction<\/strong><\/h3>\n