Michigan State basketball vs. Oregon game preview, prediction

USC. UCLA. And now Oregon. Even though these schools have been Big Ten members for seven months, it still feels strange to call these conference games. Alas, Michigan State basketball will take on its third consecutive PAC-12 Big Ten opponent this weekend.

Here’s what you need to know about the Ducks, along with some matchup analysis.

Scouting Oregon

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Oregon. In the calendar year 2024, the Ducks went 12-1, with an extremely impressive neutral site victory over Alabama. In 2025, though, it’s been a different story. Oregon is 4-6 in the new year, with five losses in their last six games. The lone victory came against basement dweller Washington.

After their two-point loss to UCLA on Dec. 8, Oregon was as high as 14th in KenPom. They’ve since dropped to 37th and now find their NCAA Tournament status far less certain than anticipated.

What’s gone wrong with Dana Altman’s bunch? Well, the offense has completely cratered. Oregon’s 103.8 offensive efficiency rating in Big Ten play ranks 17th in the league. They’ve been terrible at protecting the basketball, turning it over on over 17 pecent of possessions. They’re not a good offensive rebounding team, and they don’t get to the free-throw line.

It’s an offense that wants to play fast and shoot threes. Almost 40 percent of their shot attempts have come from long-range during conference play. And the Ducks have the potential to get hot. Jackson Shelstad, Keeshawn Barthelemy, and Brandon Angel all shoot the three at 37 percent or higher.

Defensively, their problems also reside along the three-point line. The Ducks are daring opponents to shoot. And so far, they’ve gotten blow-torched, allowing opponents to shoot 36 percent. That’s also good for 17th in the league. Nate Bittle has been a solid rim protector, anchoring Oregon’s defense in the paint.

But the Ducks haven’t been great at generating turnovers. When coupled with their giveaways at the offensive end, they’ve found themselves at a disadvantage from a total possession standpoint.

Oregon is a balanced team, with five players averaging at least 9.5 points per game. When they are at their best, it’s because Bittle is controlling the paint, and Shelstad and Barthelemy are hitting shots. But TJ Bamba is Oregon’s X-factor. He’s a streaky offensive player, but his size makes him effective on the glass and his length presents problems in passing lanes. If efficient TJ Bamba shows up, and the Ducks are hitting threes, they become very difficult to handle.

Michigan State basketball update

The Spartans have to be ornery after leaving Southern California with zero wins and a two-game lead in the Big Ten that has since evaporated. MSU couldn’t overcome a lousy start against USC last weekend. This past Tuesday, they were unable to seize an opportunity in the closing minutes against UCLA.

Michigan State didn’t play particularly well in either game. Yet, both games were within reach deep into the second half. The Spartans continued to defend at a high level. But in a surprising turn of events, their offense let them down in both contests. Michigan State basketball averaged fewer than a point per possession for just the second and third times this season.

Shooting continues to be an issue. Michigan State has dropped down to 350th in America in 3-point shooting. Their 32 percent shooting in Big Ten play ranks 15th. Yet, nobody gets a lower percentage of their points from three than Michigan State. And nobody shoots fewer.

MSU can make up for this with their offensive rebounding and free throw shooting. The Spartans lead the conference in both metrics. They also share the ball extremely well, leading the league in assists to field goals made.

But after taking good care of the basketball for most of this season, the Spartans have been bitten by the turnover bug. After coughing it up 13 times against USC, and 16 times against UCLA, MSU now finds themselves outside the top 175 in turnover percentage.

My two cents on this concerning trend is the inconsistency with the lineup combinations. The Spartans have tremendous depth. And all 10 guys that play are capable contributors in some way. But the coaching staff has lost that magic touch with dispersing those minutes lately. And those decisions have an impact on an offense’s ability to play with cohesion and efficiency.

That’s what I’ll be watching most closely on Saturday. Because at this point, 22 games into the season, we have a pretty good idea of who MSU is. This last month has to be about finding the most effective lineup combinations and sticking to them. That might result in some tough decisions. But this team has put themselves in a position to do special things this year. That can’t be put at risk because the coaching staff is trying to evenly distribute playing time.

Prediction

KenPom projects Michigan State basketball as an eight-point favorite at the Breslin Center. The early tipoff time for the West Coast Ducks shouldn’t play a factor, as they stuck around after playing in Ann Arbor on Wednesday.

With both teams on a losing streak, you could make the “buy low” case for either team. However, Oregon’s slide appears much more severe than Michigan State’s. Even before their home loss to Purdue that started this slide, the Ducks won their previous three games by a combined seven points. Those wins came after they were boat raced at home by Illinois.

Oregon has been trending in the wrong direction for weeks. And this doesn’t project as a favorable matchup. You’ve got one of the league’s worst offenses going up against Michigan State’s top-rated defense. MSU should own the glass, and they should be more comfortable shooting at home.

MSU has the guards to match up with Shelstad and Barthelemy. They have several options to throw at Nate Bittle. And I give the edge to MSU if they choose to put Coen Carr on TJ Bamba.

This line could balloon to double digits by tipoff. That wouldn’t scare me off. On the road, I don’t see how Oregon scores enough here. If they choose to play up-tempo, that also favors Michigan State and their transition game. If not, the Oregon defense has not proven to be nearly good enough to win a rock fight. Michigan State gets back on track and starts off the weekend on a high note.

 Prediction: Oregon 68,  Michigan State 80