3 things to watch for and a prediction for Michigan State football vs. Oregon

Michigan State football will be in Eugene on Friday night to face a suddenly-hot Oregon team. Here’s what to watch and a prediction.

As strange as it feels, Michigan State football will travel to Eugene on Friday for a conference game against the Ducks. The Spartans will be taking on a top-10 team for the second time in six days. Once again, Michigan State finds itself as a heavy underdog against a team with national title aspirations.

Here is what I’ll be watching for, and what I ultimately expect to happen.

1. Oregon’s offensive line

Everything is relative, right? Relative to the rest of college football, this Oregon offensive line is fine. But for a team with massive preseason expectations, it’s been an underwhelming start. The Ducks are averaging fewer yards per carry than 75 other teams in the nation. Before popping off against Oregon State, Oregon barely rushed for 100 yards against Idaho and Boise State. The Ducks have just four rushing plays all season that have gained 20 yards or more. That’s in line with teams like UMass, Charlotte, and Northwestern. They’ve surrendered 20 tackles for loss and allowed seven sacks in four games.

That could be a problem against this Michigan State football front seven. The Spartans present a top-40 rushing defense, yielding just over three yards per carry. They also rank in the top 20 nationally in sacks and tackles for loss. And unlike the Oregon offensive line, this Michigan State defense has been tested, with games against Maryland, Boston College, and Ohio State.

It’s worth noting that Michigan State allowed over five yards per carry against Ohio State and did not record a sack. So, this unit was not immune to the step up in competition. But are we sure this Oregon offense is on par with Ohio State? The numbers through four games suggest that they are not.

Sure, Dillon Gabriel has been lethal through the air, completing over 80 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns. But this is still a passing attack that needs the threat of a running game to be successful. Oregon will use play-action and run/pass options to try and generate big plays through the air. Their lack of a ground game has impacted those plans. The Ducks have only generated 14 pass plays of 20 yards or more. That’s as many as Minnesota.

Oregon’s offensive line is the unit to watch in this game. At this point, Michigan State has to feel pretty good about what they have in the defensive trenches. Oregon’s offensive line is the wild card. Have they been holding things back because of their schedule? As 24-point favorites, will that continue? Or do they have some legitimate issues up front?

Michigan State’s hopes of hanging around in this game hinge on that last question.

2. Michigan State’s passing offense

What happens when you combine an inaccurate quarterback with turnover issues and an elite pass defense? Well, we’re about to find out.

Friday night will likely be the most difficult test of Aidan Chiles’ young career. Thus far, Oregon has been outstanding against the pass. The Ducks are allowing fewer than 51 percent of passes to be completed and have not surrendered more than 178 yards in a single game. They’ve come up with four interceptions while allowing just two touchdown passes.

This Oregon defense has to be licking their chops at the opportunity to go up against Chiles. Sure, he’s talented. And the hope is that one day, they won’t be as eager to see him dropping back to throw. For now, though, it’s a welcome sight because Chiles has been a walking, breathing turnover. He’s thrown an interception in all four games against FBS opponents. His eight total interceptions are the second-most among FBS quarterbacks.

Even if Chiles takes better care of the ball, Michigan State’s wide receivers still have to prove they can create separation. Oregon has been exceptional at passing breakups, ranking third in America according to Action Network. Michigan State got Nick Marsh and Jaron Glover back from injury last week. But it’s no guarantee that either player is operating at 100 percent.

If MSU’s receivers can’t separate, and Chiles holds onto the ball, bad things are going to happen. This is not a great offensive line and it’s been made worse by injuries. Six of Chiles’ eight interceptions this season have come under pressure.

The youth at receiver for the Spartans combined with sticky coverage and a questionable offensive line feels like a recipe for disaster.

There is some reason to suggest that Michigan State football can run the ball on Oregon. The numbers are a bit skewed by Boise standout Ashton Jeanty, but Oregon State had some success as well. Michigan State has to find a way to follow suit if they want to have any chance in this game. Without it, I don’t see how MSU moves the ball with any success through the air.

3. Autzen Stadium

With all due respect to Maryland and Boston College, Friday night presents a different kind of environment for Michigan State football. Although smaller than most of college football’s intimidating environments, Autzen Stadium is widely regarded as one of the sport’s loudest venues.

Yes, Oregon is a heavy favorite. Most of their fans are probably more focused on hosting Ohio State next weekend. Even so, Michigan State is a big enough brand to draw a big crowd, especially on Friday night.

I’m curious to see how Michigan State handles this. As a team, they’ve been extremely sloppy with penalties this season. Does that get amplified with the crowd noise? If things start off poorly, do they snowball on the Spartans?

Jonathan Smith has experience coaching against Oregon in this building. He knows what it’s like to be an underdog against the Ducks. He was aggressive last week in this spot against Ohio State. Does that change at all on the road a week later?

As much as Autzen Stadium works in Oregon’s favor, it also has the potential to become a pressure cooker. This fanbase has seen some inexplicable losses at home over the years. If MSU can hang around in this game, the pressure will shift heavily towards Oregon. Boise State gave us a glimpse of what that looks like on Sept. 7. The Ducks managed to escape with the help of two special teams’ touchdowns and a field goal as time expired.

Prediction

Currently, Oregon is a 23.5-point favorite with a total in the low 50s. Vegas is projecting a final score in the neighborhood of 38-14. Even though we haven’t seen a ton from Oregon this season, we’ve seen enough of Michigan State to understand why the spread is what it is.

Situationally, this is a decent spot for Michigan State. Yes, they are coming off a short week after getting blasted at home against Ohio State. But Oregon is also coming off a short week, with the biggest game of their season on deck. Dan Lanning wants to win this game and stay healthy. There’s no need to send a message or play any starters longer than necessary.

Even so, it’s tough to trust Michigan State on the road. Aside from a buttoned up special teams unit, they possess very few qualities you want when backing an underdog. They commit too many penalties. They turn the ball over. And they’re horrendous at finishing drives.

But I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that this Oregon team is overvalued. I mentioned the Oregon State game as the one game where they ran the ball well. You know who ran for more yards against the Beavers? Purdue, last week. Have you seen Purdue this year?

Oregon hasn’t covered the spread in their other three games, with single-digit victories at home against Idaho and Boise State. They dominated UCLA, sure. But I’ll ask again. Have you seen UCLA this year?

Something feels off with this team. I do expect the Ducks to move the ball between the 20s. But their lack of a running game forces them to settle for field goals in the red zone.

Offensively, I’m banking on the fact that MSU can’t be any worse with the turnovers than it’s been so far. The Spartans showed some progress against the Buckeyes before catastrophic mistakes.

Michigan State football keeps this annoyingly close, while also never seriously threatening to win.

Final score: Oregon 30, Michigan State 16