Michigan State basketball: Preview, prediction vs. Michigan, Part II

Michigan State basketball wraps up the regular season on Sunday with its second game this season against Michigan. The Spartans took the first game, 75-62 in Ann Arbor.

Here’s an update on both teams, along with some predictive analysis.

Michigan update

Since that loss to Michigan State on Feb. 21, the Wolverines have been scuffling. Although they are 2-2 since that game, their brand of basketball has been uninspiring.

Michigan was drummed by Illinois at home a week ago, and followed that up with another loss at home against Maryland.

Their two wins came against Rutgers and Nebraska. Against the Huskers, the Wolverines managed to win despite scoring only 49 points. They needed a buzzer-beating 3-pointer from Nimari Burnett to beat the Scarlet Knights.

Dusty May’s group had been flying close to the sun for a while, but kept their heads above water by winning every close game. Regression has come for Michigan, and the version we’ve seen the past two weeks is probably much closer to their true identity.

Michigan’s KenPom rating has plummeted to 28, the lowest it’s been since Thanksgiving. Their offensive efficiency has slipped to 49th, and they are now turning the ball over at the highest rate in the Big Ten.

In the first matchup with Michigan State, the mismatch at guard was obvious. For as strong as the Wolverines are in the frontcourt with Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, they don’t have a dependable point guard.

When Michigan is running well, it’s because Tre Donaldson is hitting shots. Against MSU in round one, he wasn’t, and found himself on the bench for the majority of the final eight minutes.

The bigger issue for Michigan as far as its future is concerned is the play of Wolf. Even though he scored 20 earlier this week against Maryland, he hasn’t looked like the same player that we saw earlier this year. His scoring figures are down, and he remains one of the main contributors to Michigan’s turnover problem.

If Michigan is going to win this game, it’ll need efficient, clean games from the aforementioned Donaldson and Wolf. Goldin, who did play well against Michigan State basketball in February, will have to stay out of foul trouble and replicate the effort he gave in the first matchup.

Michigan State basketball update

That sound you hear is the collective exhale from Michigan State, the coaching staff, and the fans. The Spartans are outright Big Ten champions, no matter what happens in this game.

After four trying years, it’s a significant achievement that many weren’t sure they’d see again any time soon. A program that used to run this conference finds itself at the top once again.

Michigan State won this league by winning its past six games, which included five Quad 1 victories, with three of those coming on the road.

Even though the Spartans may not have much to play for as far as the Big Ten is concerned, they remain in contention for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. I remain confident that they are much closer to obtaining that mark than most Bracketologists. But to have any chance, they need another Quad 1 win against Michigan.

The Spartans won the first matchup by hitting some threes and owning the glass. Michigan’s zone gave Michigan State some trouble, as did Iowa‘s this past Thursday. You can bet they’ll see more of it in this game Sunday.

It’s a smart strategy, because the Spartans are not a good outside shooting team. Which likely means MSU is going to see it in the NCAA Tournament. In that sense, this should serve as excellent preparation for that scenario.

Even though MSU has gotten by against zone defenses, it’s not anything that you’ll ever see on an instructional video. They don’t have a playmaking forward like they did with Malik Hall a year ago. Tom Izzo might have to get creative, and try putting one of his guards in the middle to initiate some offense. Jase Richardson or Jeremy Fears would be my first choices.

Prediction

Michigan State basketball is a 7.5-point favorite on Senior Day at the Breslin Center. This is a substantial movement from the line in the first game, where MSU was a 3.5 point underdog.

One of the reasons I liked the Spartans in the first game was because I got the sense that Michigan was overvalued in the market. Even though the Wolverines were winning, their metrics were declining, and they entered that game with a negative point differential over their previous few games.

Fast forward to today, and look at how much perception has changed. Adjusting for home court, this is a 3-4 point move between these teams.

Typically, this is a spot where I’d say it’s time to back the underdog, with the idea that there’s another overreaction in the works, creating value on the other side. But in this spot, I can’t get there. Even though this is a relatively “meaningless” game for MSU, there are no meaningless games against Michigan. On senior day, the Breslin will be bumpin’. This team has captivated the fan base, and the Spartan faithful will show up strong to send this team off to the postseason.

Michigan State shot the ball better than it typically does in its win earlier this year. But outside of that, there wasn’t anything fluky about the way MSU controlled that game, especially in the second half.

I can’t endorse betting on Michigan State basketball at what should be the peak of their market value. At the same time, I’m not itching to get in front of this train. I guarantee we’ll see a maximum effort from Michigan.

But on the road, against an MSU team with this type of confidence, with no real answer at guard, I’m not sure it’s enough.

Prediction: Michigan 70, Michigan State 78