Getting to know the Michigan State football opponent: Minnesota

I caught up with Noel Thompson of GopherHole this week to talk about the upcoming matchup between Minnesota and Michigan State football.

Here’s what he had to say.

The Golden Gophers are amidst year nine with PJ Fleck at the helm, with a 5-3 record on the season. This follows up seasons that has saw Fleck and Minnesota reach bowl games four consecutive times, and six straight seasons with the COVID-19 year exempt. They opened the year with a 6.5 win total expectation. What were your own expectations for Minnesota this season? How would you grade Fleck & Co.’s coaching this season?

This is a tricky question for me to answer, simply because this team has been so hard to figure out this season. They are undefeated at home and have played abysmally on the road. They have consistently started games sluggish but come alive in the second half. The last two weeks have really summed up the season. Two weeks ago, they dominate Nebraska at home but then last week they didn’t come off the bus in Iowa.

In my season predictions before the season, I had this team winning eight games because the schedule was pretty manageable. With five wins already and games still against Michigan State, Northwestern, and Wisconsin, eight wins is still reachable. But the inconsistency worries me. Regarding grading Fleck, I would give him a C+ so far. It hasn’t been all bad this year, but it sure hasn’t been great.

Minnesota is currently averaging 23.9 PPG this season, which is 14th in the conference. Their offensive output of 314.6 yards per game is 17th in the Big Ten. In part, this comes from breaking in redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Lindsey to Big Ten play. What is the strength of the Minnesota offense? What is their weakness? Additionally, if you are to put a rating on Lindsey’s play this year, what is your grade?

Oh boy. I don’t know what else I could say is a strength of this offense besides Drake Lindsey. For a redshirt freshman, he has been impressive this year. There isn’t a throw he can’t make, and outside of Iowa last week, the game hasn’t been too fast for him to make plays with his arm. He has played exceptionally well at home against Big Ten teams, throwing for 709 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. He won’t beat you with his feet, but can toss a pretty ball. I would give Drake a B+ this year.

It’s weird to say this about a P.J. Fleck team, but the run game has been rough this year.

The offensive line includes four new starters from last year. Although they all had experience, they began the season with none playing together. This offensive line has struggled to find its groove, physicality, and chemistry in the run game. Fleck has kept the same five guys on the line but has moved them around three times this season, much like a hockey coach switching up lines. The line is decent in pass protection, but very poor creating holes for the running backs.

Defensively, Minnesota is holding teams to 21.8 points per game, which stands as the 11th best in-conference. However, they are holding teams to 292.1 yards per game, which is in the top half of the conference, at seventh. Anthony Smith is currently tied for the Big Ten lead in sacks with seven. In addition to Smith and dynamic safety Koi Perich, who should the Spartans keep eyes on when on offense? How have teams had success against the Gophers?

You have to know where Anthony Smith is at all times. He has a lot of different moves to get into the backfield. He will be playing on Sundays in the near future. Koi Perich has gotten a lot of attention this offseason, but his fellow safety Kerry Brown is just as good in the back end. Keep an eye on DE Karter Menz, he has been taking advantage of the attention Anthony Smith gets and has found himself second on the team in sacks.

The defense has yet to figure out how to stop the run. Minnesota is giving up almost four yards a carry this season. Some of that is players not shedding their blocks, missing tackles, and not staying disciplined in misdirection. Tackling has been a struggle all season. This is frustrating for Minnesota fans since they are used to a program that stays disciplined and thrives on fundamentals.

A popular phrase at press conferences is “mid-season healthy.” Outside of the normal bumps and bruises, how has the injury bug hit Minnesota? Which impact players are you monitoring for injuries when the injury report releases Saturday?

For the record, P.J. Fleck keeps injury news like they are nuclear codes. He never gives updates on players’ injuries. That said, I have no confidence that Gophers star running back Darius Taylor will play this week. He injured something at the beginning of the game last week and never returned. That’s a big loss for Minnesota. Starting corner John Nestor also came out of the game last week after returning from an injury. That is one player I am curious to look for on the availability report. Other than that, I have no idea which players will be doubtful, questionable, or out till the availability report is released.

In ESPN’s Top 100 Players to Watch ahead of the 2025 NCAA season, Koi Perich checked in at No. 42. Who are some of the Gophers’ X-Factors and impact players to monitor during Saturday’s contest in addition to Perich? Additionally, how are you grading Perich’s play this season, has he lived up to the hype?

Like I mentioned above, Drake Lindsey is the engine, the gas, the wheels, and the steering wheel of this offense. Minnesota will need him to keep playing well at home to beat the Spartans. His favorite target is senior wideout Le’Meke Brockington, who has 31 catches for 339 yards and three touchdowns. In the red zone, make sure you keep an eye on tight end Jameson Geers.

On defense, I have been impressed with linebackers Maverick Baranowski and Devon Williams. This was a group I was worried about entering the season, but now they have played the most consistently this year.

Regarding Koi, he deservedly made multiple preseason All-American lists after his freshman season last year. Entering Saturday, he is third on the team with 44 tackles. He has one sack, and his only interception was a game-winning pick-six against Purdue. I think it’s fair to say that Koi is experiencing a little sophomore slump, but his plate is a lot fuller than last season. He started this season getting snaps on offense, but we haven’t seen that in weeks. He is still the primary returner for Minnesota, but has yet to get free and make a play. Last year, he was able to play centerfield more because Minnesota had really good corners. That is not the case this year.

So it’s hard to grade Koi’s season this year, given all of that. With that said, the kid loves football and is a playmaker. You have to know where he is when he is on the field.

Minnesota enters Saturday’s contest looking to wrap up bowl eligibility and secure their fourth conference win of the season. Additionally, a win on Saturday evens up PJ Fleck’s Big Ten record as Minnesota’s head coach at 38-38. All-time, Michigan State leads the series 30-19 over the Gophers, but the Spartans have lost their last two outings. Minnesota stands at 3.5-point favorites as it currently stands, with ESPN giving the Gophers over a 60% chance of victory. What does Minnesota need to do to “Row the Boat” to victory on Saturday? What is your prediction for the game?

The Gophers are coming off a dominating loss to their rival, Iowa, last week. The week before that, they efficiently handled Nebraska. I’m very curious to see how Minnesota responds to Michigan State. What gives me hope is that this game is played in Minneapolis, and the Gophers have yet to lose at home this year.

For the Gophers to win, they need to put pressure on Aidan Chiles and make him uncomfortable. The offensive line needs to do enough to let Drake Lindsey make plays, and the running game needs to do something.

If this game was on the road, I would be more nervous. But it’s not.

Give me Minnesota, 27- 20