Michigan State Basketball: 2025 NCAA Tournament betting guide

Peanut butter and jelly. Movie theaters and popcorn. The NCAA Tournament and gambling. Those are things that just go together. And if you don’t have enough invested emotionally in Michigan State basketball, here’s a quick guide and overview of the Spartans’ futures markets in the gambling sphere.

As always, bet responsibly. Take this advice for what it’s worth. I’m an amateur, offering my opinion. Nothing more. In fact, you’re probably better off fading. Your choice. All odds shown are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Michigan State to make the Sweet 16: -180

After years of being tabbed with plus odds to make the second weekend, Michigan State is a solid favorite to win both games this weekend. We know the opponent on Friday. MSU is currently -2400 on the money line to beat Bryant. This bet (hopefully) comes down to the Round of 32 game against either Marquette or New Mexico. This could be an interesting wager if you like New Mexico in that game because MSU would be a heavier favorite than -180 to win on Sunday.

The Lobos are currently ranked 43rd in KenPom, which is nine spots lower than Oregon, who Michigan State basketball was just favored by 6.5 points against on a neutral court. The more likely opponent, Marquette, aligns much closer with something in the -180 neighborhood. In either case, there’s not enough value here for me to get involved. I’m not comfortable paying for that kind of juice, especially with something as unpredictable as the NCAA Tournament. I wouldn’t be opposed to using this prop in a parlay with another Sweet 16 favorite (say, Duke or Florida).

But on its own, it’s not a bet I’d endorse.

Michigan State to make the Elite Eight: +140

Alright, now we’ve got some plus odds to discuss. And to me, this is where it gets interesting. While we know MSU’s Round of 32 matchup will be against one of two teams, we can expand the possibilities in a potential Sweet 16 game to any of the four teams in the pod above Michigan State.

The biggest threat, on paper, is the 3-seed, Iowa State. At full strength, the Cyclones would be favored over the Spartans. But they aren’t fully healthy, and that opens the door not just for Michigan State basketball, but for any of those three teams this weekend. I’m not bold enough to pick Lipscomb to beat Iowa State. At the same time, it’s a top 85 KenPom team that can really shoot the three. Crazier things have happened.

Ole Miss hails from the vaunted SEC, and it’s possible that league was even better and deeper than we realized. And the Rebels have one of the best coaches in this tournament in Chris Beard. And then there’s North Carolina. How many times have we seen undeserving 11-seeds use Dayton as a springboard for a run? Too many.

The point is, I think there’s a decent chance the chalk breaks in that pod. If (big if) MSU can get there, they won’t be +140 to beat any of those teams. They’d be a small favorite over Iowa State. They’ve already beaten North Carolina this year. And, if lady luck graces us with her presence, a double-digit favorite over Lipscomb.

I think I’m going to end up playing this. Even if the chalk holds, I believe MSU is the best team in the bottom half of the South region. We’re getting plus money for them to prove it. Let’s roll the dice.

Michigan State to reach the Final Four: +500

Michigan State basketball has the second shortest odds to reach San Antonio of all the teams in the South Region. Auburn is the favorite at -140. The Tigers are the anticipated roadblock that could prevent Tom Izzo from reaching his ninth final four.

It’s interesting that even though Duke and Florida are favorites ahead of Auburn for the National Championship, the Tigers’ -140 odds are the best to reach the national semifinals.

Even though that number is indicative of the South Region possessing the greatest potential to implode, I think it matters. There’s clearly a line in the sand between the Tigers and the rest of the teams in this region. And, yes, everything mentioned above with the Elite Eight bets applies here as well. Auburn could go down, and this thing could open beautifully for MSU.

No, Michigan State basketball will not be +500 to beat Auburn if the chalk holds. In that sense, there is value on this number. But the value only exists if the bet cashes. And Auburn is one of a few teams that I don’t think MSU can beat.

And while the Spartans don’t need to beat the Tigers to get to San Antonio, I’m not sure where they would trip up. Maybe Louisville can ride the home-court advantage in Lexington. Maybe Texas A&M can repeat their performance from March 4 where they beat Auburn. Maybe Michigan has found something. Or maybe UC San Diego is even better than the analytics suggest. Who knows.

Sadly, this is a pass for me. It’s not that I don’t think Michigan State basketball can do it. It certainly can. But I’d like to see something longer than 5-to-1. Forget the elite eight games. MSU still has to win three games to have the opportunity to cash this. Remember, they are already plus money to do that. To win one more game, against the number one overall seed, I’d need more than +500.

Michigan State to reach the National Championship: +1500

I won’t spend too much time on this one, because I don’t know why you’d bet this. Actually, I guess, I do. If you love this Michigan State team but fear Duke, or Houston for that matter, then I guess this makes sense. MSU can cash this bet without facing either since they are on the opposite side of the bracket.

At the same time, if the Spartans are coming off consecutive wins against one or two seeds, I’m not sure why you’d be afraid of anyone else. In any case, we could play hypotheticals for days. This is far too deep into the tournament to think we know what the matchups will be. Pass.

Michigan State basketball to win the National Championship: +2500

Twenty-five to one on the 25th anniversary of Tom Izzo’s lone national championship? Damn. Sounds perfect.

This would be a play if I could get confirmation that they’ll wear the 2000 throwbacks for all six games. Kidding. Speaking of, how do we get a green version of those? Long overdue.

Anyway, I get the allure here. If you want to throw some lunch money on this as proof that you believe in this team and Izzo, that’s fine. I’ll probably end up doing the same just for fun.

But I have zero expectations for this to cash. The Spartans just miss the cutoff for the typical qualifiers that are common amongst national champions. They have an elite defense, but their offense falls outside of that top 20 threshold that most champions possess.

Beyond that, I fear there are better teams, that are bad matchups for the Spartans. Auburn, Duke, and Houston are the obvious ones. We love this MSU team because it feels like they’ve maximized the potential that they have relative to their talent. With those three teams, there appears to be another gear that I’m not sure the Spartans have in them. And it’s hard for me to see Michigan State basketball cutting down the nets without needing to beat at least one, if not two of those teams. It’s a pass for me.

Team to advance further: Houston (-250) vs Michigan State (+190)

This is a fun one. Houston, understandably, as the one seed, is the favorite to go further. But their potential opponent in the round of 32 at least makes this worth a conversation.

Gonzaga enters the tournament as the ninth-rated team on KenPom. The last time we had a matchup of teams rated this favorably in the second round was in 2021 when eight-seed Loyola Chicago ousted top-seeded Illinois. Could we see that happen again?

For as stellar as Houston has been in the regular season, we have seen their offense dry up in the tournament. But this year’s version of the Cougars is different in the sense that they can really shoot the three. And their physicality is going to be a lot for Gonzaga to handle, especially since the Bulldogs have been beating up on lowly WCC opponents for three months.

This isn’t a bet for me because there are a lot of moving pieces. But if you’re down on Houston, I’d just play one of their opponents on the money line and remove Michigan State from the equation entirely. The odds should be similar, if not better.

Team to advance further: Tennessee (-165) vs Michigan State (+130)

Another fun one. This time, the odds are more even, as you’d expect from both two seeds. It’s going to be hard for me to not bet on Michigan State basketball with this prop.

This is more of a bet against Tennessee than it is on Michigan State. The Vols play so, so slow. And that defensive, low-possession style puts you in close games. Close games often come down to coaching. And if you’re unfamiliar with Rick Barnes’ track record in this tournament, I’ll save you some time. It’s awful.

Beyond the “Izzo vs. Barnes” angle though, I don’t like this Tennessee team. Their offense is inconsistent, and Chaz Lanier is not Dalton Knecht. And when you look at the potential Round of 32 opponents for MSU and Tennessee, I think UCLA is by far the scariest. That’s a team that we’ve seen beat Michigan State. It’s also one that is very, very comfortable playing a defensive, half-court grinding game with Tennessee.

Further in the bracket, they could see a Kentucky team that’s beaten them twice. They could also see Illinois, who I (stupidly) can’t quit. But this is a straightforward handicap for me. With all things equal, Rick Barnes should not be favored over Tom Izzo in this tournament.