Michigan State basketball: 3 key factors and a prediction at Indiana

With Michigan State basketball ending its regular season on Sunday, here are some key factors and a prediction versus Indiana.

Michigan State basketball and Indiana will wrap up the Big Ten regular season on Sunday with their first and only meeting of the season. Indiana will be looking to send their seniors off on a high note in their last game at Assembly Hall. Michigan State will hope to build some momentum ahead of the postseason.

Here’s what to watch for and a prediction of the outcome.

1. The battle in the paint

It’s been a strange season for Indiana. At one point, the Hoosiers lost eight of 10 games in Big Ten play, highlighted by a four-game losing streak in February. Since then, the Hoosiers have won three in a row against Wisconsin, Maryland, and Minnesota. Indiana was an underdog in each game.

Their recent surge has coincided with great play from their big men. Malik Reneau, Kal’el Ware, and Mackenzie Mgbako form a three-headed monster down low that’s been extremely efficient of late. Mgbako, in particular, has been especially dangerous now that he’s starting to shoot the three-ball better, going 9-for-17 over his past three games. Ware is playing his best basketball of the season as well. In games against Wisconsin and Minnesota, Ware went a combined 23-for-28 from the field scoring 27 and 26 points, respectively.

Tom Izzo and his staff have to be concerned with the way Indiana’s big men are playing. The Spartans have faced uncertainty with their frontcourt all season, and Indiana has nowhere else to go with its offense. Similar to last week at Purdue, you can expect to see all four of Michigan State’s centers in this game. The Spartans are going to have to find a matchup that works, and they’ll likely need to use a lot of fouls. Unlike Purdue, Indiana is a dreadful free throw shooting team. So, it’s in Michigan State’s best interest to put the Hoosier big men on the free throw line.

Despite their size, Indiana is not a good rebounding team. Against Michigan State this season, that hasn’t mattered all that much because the Spartans aren’t very good on the glass either. To me, this is where the game will be won and lost. If Indiana can hold their own in the rebounding department, and play through the post, they’ll wear down Michigan State basketball. But if the Spartans can make post touches difficult and clean up Indiana misses, they should have enough of an advantage at guard to win this game.

2. AJ Hoggard and Jaden Akins

While the center position has attracted most of the attention this season from critical fans, the reality is that Michigan State’s backcourt hasn’t been as advertised for most of this season. Tyson Walker has been battling a nagging groin injury. A.J. Hoggard and Jaden Akins have battled inconsistency throughout this season.

For Hoggard, it’s been a stunning inability to finish around the rim. Since a 7-for-12 performance against Michigan on Jan. 30, Hoggard is shooting just 34 percent on two-point attempts. Many of those misses have been layups right at the rim. He’s scored in double figures just twice since then.

For Akins, his game seems to go as his 3-point shot goes. Recently, it hasn’t been going well. Since that same game against Michigan on Jan. 30 where he hit seven of 10 3-pointers, Akins is shooting just 33 percent on 45 attempts.

For Michigan State basketball to win this game on the road, it’s going to have to get more from those two guys.

On paper, this should be a good matchup for Michigan State. Indiana’s guard play has been questionable for most of this season. The Hoosiers are an average defensive team that doesn’t force a ton of turnovers. Point guard Xavier Johnson has returned from injury, but he still may not be 100 percent healthy. It will be interesting to see how Mike Woodson handles his minutes against Michigan State’s backcourt.

In conference play, Indiana’s defense is surrendering the second-worst effective field goal percentage. While a good portion of that is due to the opponent’s 3-point shooting, there should still be plenty of opportunities available in the mid-range for Hoggard, Akins, Walker, and Malik Hall.

A Michigan State run in March is going to be built on strong guard play. Sunday could be the launch point if the Spartans get comfortable.

3. Mike Woodson and Assembly Hall

As you’re probably aware, Indiana basketball has a rabid fanbase. Their rich history from the days of Bob Knight has left behind a high standard in Bloomington. This has been a disappointing season. The Hoosiers are going to have to win the Big Ten Tournament to go dancing. After back-to-back Round of 32 losses in the NCAA Tournament, many fans were ready to move on from coach Mike Woodson. Earlier this week, Indiana announced he would return.

Less than 24 hours later, five-star commit Liam McNeely announced his de-commitment from Indiana. It was curious timing, and many assumed that those two announcements were related. That news only made those voices calling for Woodson’s job even louder.

This game on Sunday is almost secondary for many Indiana fans. They’ve already moved on to next season, which was made even more interesting after McNeely’s de-commitment. Make no mistake, Assembly Hall will be jam-packed and as loud as ever. The Hoosier faithful will want to send their seniors out with a victory.

But I also expect this game to serve as a medium for many Indiana fans to express their feelings about where things are in the big picture. Undoubtedly frustrated by McNeely’s announcement, I’m curious to see if that frustration spills over into this game on Sunday.

Again, Indiana isn’t playing for much on Sunday other than pride.

If things go south, especially early, what does the atmosphere in the building feel like? Conversely, if Indiana starts fast, does the crowd use this game as a temporary reprieve from what’s going on with the roster next season? It’s always important to start fast on the road, but this twist makes it even more important for Michigan State to come out ready.

Prediction

Michigan State is a 3.5-point favorite on Senior Day in Bloomington on Sunday. The total is set at 142.5. Given the season-long metrics for these two teams, I understand why MSU is favored on the road here. At the same time, this feels like a bad time to be catching the Hoosiers. Two weeks ago, this number probably would have been closer to six.

Now, Indiana seems to be playing their best basketball. Michigan State remains an enigma. After playing well enough to win at Mackey Arena last weekend, the Spartans put forth their worst offensive effort of the season and managed to hang on to beat Northwestern. Who knows what version of Michigan State basketball we’ll get on Sunday.

From a numbers standpoint, Michigan State is the better shooting team. They should enjoy advantages on the boards and in the turnover department. The Spartans have also fared well this season against poor three-point shooting teams. The best unit in this game is the Michigan State defense.

But that defense is going to be tested at the spot where they are the most vulnerable. Michigan State hasn’t put together a complete 40 minutes in weeks. To win on the road, you’ve got to be multiple possessions better than your opponent. At this point, I’m not sure how much better MSU is on a neutral court, let alone on the road.

A few weeks ago, I’d have said the Spartans B or B- game would have been enough against this version of the Hoosiers. Now, I’m guessing it will probably take their best. Trusting this group to play their best away from the Breslin Center hasn’t been a wise strategy. I don’t see that changing at Assembly Hall.

Final score: Indiana 68, Michigan State 66