Michigan State basketball: 3 keys and a prediction for Bryant matchup

The second-to-last game in the Round of 64 will feature Michigan State basketball and Bryant. Tom Izzo’s quest for a ninth Final Four and second national championship gets underway in Cleveland, as part of the South Region. The Spartans will be making their 27th consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament.

Here are three keys, and a prediction for Michigan State’s first-round game against Bryant.

1. Rebounding

Going into Selection Sunday, we figured Michigan State would see a favorable matchup given their projected seed. While that is still true, this is a Bryant team that rebounds the ball better than your typical 15-seed. The Bulldogs rank within the top 55 nationally in offensive rebound percentage.

It’s a roster that has some size to it, with all major contributors standing at least 6-foot-5. The Bulldogs were able to win the America East by using that size to control the glass. It’s not a great shooting team, ranking outside the top 150 in two and 3-point shooting percentages. That makes Bryant even more reliant on the offensive glass for offense.

Michigan State basketball, as we know, wants to own the rebounding department as well. The Spartans got back to their roots this year under Tom Izzo, leading the Big Ten in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. Like Bryant, they also rely on second-chance opportunities to score.

Keyshawn Mitchell is the key player in this game for Bryant. He is the Bulldogs’ tallest player at 6-foot-11, and the only true center on this roster. He is Bryant’s best answer to Michigan State’s Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper, and Szymon Zapala. He has to find a way to stay out of foul trouble, or Bryant will find themselves at a massive size disadvantage.

As a big underdog, Bryant has to do a lot of things well in this game to win. But rebounding is non-negotiable. The metrics say that they can compete. But it’s one thing to rebound well in the America East. It’s another to do it against Michigan State.

2. Earl Timberlake

Bryant coach Phil Martelli Jr. called Timberlake the “greatest player in Bryant history” after the Bulldogs won in the American East final. The America East Player of the Year will be the focus of Michigan State’s scouting report.

At 6-foot-5, 220 pounds, Timberlake is a matchup problem because he’s a three-level scorer. He’s a good rebounder and leads Bryant in assists. He rarely comes off the floor, and it’s hard to see Bryant winning this game without a heroic effort from him.

But he’ll need to be careful as well. Timberlake has picked up at least four fouls in four of his past seven games. And Bryant is not a deep team. They desperately need Timberlake on the floor as much as possible on Friday.

Michigan State basketball will likely guard him with Jaden Akins and Coen Carr. Akins will be at a size disadvantage, but his lateral quickness could prevent Timberlake from creating offense off the dribble. Carr should be able to keep him off the glass.

Bryant always has a lot of shooting on the floor. Rafael Pinzon, Barry Evans, and Connor Withers are all 3-point threats. But Timberlake is the straw that stirs the drink. If MSU can frustrate him, or get him in foul trouble, this Bryant offense will struggle to get good looks at the basket.

3. Tempo

When scouting Bryant, the one thing that jumps out immediately is tempo. The Bulldogs play at the seventh-fastest pace in America. They do this to try and offset their inefficiencies with an increased number of possessions. In America East play, it worked.

I’m not sure Bryant wants to get into a track meet with Michigan State basketball. The Spartans got bogged down a bit in conference play, but this is a team that can be lethal in the open floor. At the same time, if you’re Bryant, this is how you’d prefer to play. A game in the half-court doesn’t suit their strengths.

To me, that leaves Tom Izzo in a bit of a conundrum. Either he gives into Bryant’s style and tries to beat them at their own game. Or he slows it down and takes away one of his own team’s strengths.

Izzo is going to have to put some trust in his point guards. Because while I don’t think MSU will be walking the ball up the court, they have to make an effort to slow this game down. Bryant’s offense isn’t built to work in the half-court. And their defense can be exposed in any setting. And if Michigan State can win the rebounding battle, Bryant’s “shot volume” approach can work against them.

The last thing MSU wants to do is get into a chaotic, high-possession game with the Bulldogs. That’s not the Spartans’ style, and it plays right into Bryant’s preference, which could give them confidence as the game wears on. Bryant has one win this season when they’ve scored fewer than 75 points. The Spartans need to use their guards to keep this game in the half-court, where they can lean on their elite defense to make Bryant’s offense become impatient.

Prediction

Michigan State basketball is a 17.5-point favorite with a total of 152.5. After Middle Tennessee, we’ve all learned to never count wins in the NCAA Tournament before the clock hits zero.

But the Spartans are big favorites for a reason. These teams are separated by 140 spots on KenPom. Bryant’s only game against similar competition this season was a 22-point loss against St. John’s.

The Bulldogs rank 338th in bench minutes, a massive difference from Michigan State’s “strength in numbers” approach. Their margin of error when it comes to fouls and substitution patterns is minuscule. And if there’s a matchup that Michigan State can exploit, Phil Martelli Jr. doesn’t have a lot of options on his bench.

Bryant has capable shooters that you look for in a big underdog in a one-game scenario. Michigan State is due for some negative 3-point regression. But Bryant has to prove that they can execute offense in the half-court. Their efficiency metrics and shooting splits suggest that will be a challenge.

Even so, I could see Bryant hanging around for a half. Michigan State basketball hasn’t been great in the first half this season, and Bryant does defend the paint well. So, if the Spartans aren’t hitting from three, this could be a bit of an offensive slog for the first 20 minutes.

In the end, as is the case in most 2 vs. 15 matchups, the step-up in talent will overwhelm Bryant over the course of 40 minutes. Michigan State should be able to limit Bryant’s effectiveness on the offensive glass, which can create transition opportunities for themselves and eliminate second-chance points for the Bulldogs.

Michigan State is deeper. Michigan State is more talented. And it’ll have a massive advantage with the crowd in this game. The MSU players will get Tom Izzo through Friday. We’ll wait and see if he can get them through Sunday.

Final: Michigan State 82, Bryant 60