Michigan State basketball: 3 potential “X-factors” for a postseason run

As of Wednesday, I am wheels down in Indianapolis, and since Michigan State basketball does not play until Friday, let’s look at who the “X-factors” for a Spartan post-season run are. Now, I want to preface it with this: you will not see a Jaden Akins, Tre Holloman, or Jase Richardson on this list. Those three are well-known players that are necessary for a tournament run. When I speak about an X-factor, I refer to a player that their contributions add on to what the ‘Holy Trinity’ bring on any given night.

Additionally, Jason Kandel of Spartan Avenue has just made an article calling Jeremy Fears Jr. the X-factor of this Spartan postseason, so I will not write on Fears.

1. Coen Carr

Last year, when Coen Carr made his postseason debut, the then-freshman was known as a raw prospect. He was a human highlight reel on dunks, but that was the extent of his contributions. His defense was good, but he would be a quarter-step too late so that the shots always landed over his arm.

While he is still improving, he has already begun to make that leap. Carr’s defense and timing has improved by that quarter step, and now, most teams have to rely on tear-drop shots over his outstretched arms. He has become a true threat at the forward slot when Jaxon Kohler and the rotation of fives need a break. Recently, MSU has even tested him in small-ball at the five.

Coen Carr’s dunking has not diminished any, either. He recently broke the unofficial record for dunks in a season by a Spartan, recording his 50th against Iowa. Tom Izzo stated that “at points, Coen’s dunks account for six points” in terms of momentum.

He has also extended his range, becoming a threat for layups. Add in his trio of made threes this year, and Coen Carr is starting to become dangerous on the court at all times. Unlike last season, you cannot foul him, either. Carr has rebounded from his free throw slump at the start of the year and is vastly improved.

The problem for Carr is that he is an undersized player for the forward skillset, and that leads to him being picked on. Also, while improved, his range is not there quite yet. In the loss to USC, the Trojans dared Carr at extended range. That was one of many reasons things came undone for MSU.

Why can he become the X-factor, you might ask? Simple. Momentum shifts. Carr can dunk the ball from the free throw line, and seemingly jump as high as the shot clock. On defense, he can easily send the ball to the third row of fans on a block. When you add up his dunks and his layups, Carr can be the player putting together a quiet 8-to-12-point night that leads to a Spartan victory. In the Round of 64, I firmly believe Carr can put up around 15 points and give himself and the team momentum and confidence that they can carry for a deep postseason run.

2. Frankie Fidler

Frankie Fidler is a senior who has not had the type of year anyone thought when he arrived from Omaha via the transfer portal. The three-point ace and leading scorer has had a quiet year, barring an 18-point outing against Penn State. However, that exact game is why I have confidence in Fidler.

Fidler has been completely out of sorts from beyond the arc this year, shooting an atrocious 18 percent. His confidence is gone. It has led to Fidler being the ninth man in a 10-man rotation. However, he is crucial for a March run. I will tell you why.

Against Penn State, Fidler was the man that survived the Nittany Lions upset hopes, leading the way for MSU when no one else could step up. He was a player “having a moment” as opposed to “doing a great job,” per Tom Izzo. However, when teams inevitably turn to zone defense against the Spartans, Fidler is by far the most experienced player when it comes to playing the zone.

Recently, Jaden Akins has started turning around his luck from beyond the arc, as has the whole team. Who is to say that Fidler will not get hot? Confidence in contagious, and this team ended the year with Holloman, Richardson, and Akins combining for 15 made 3-pointers in the last two games of the year.

When teams play zone, it will be Fidler’s time to shine. At the beginning of the tournament, Fidler will be seeing teams with competition levels he is used to. At the end of the tournament, the teams he sees likely have not seen much of 2023-or-earlier Fidler, and that can be his advantage. No one will remember Fidler’s down season if he catches fire and becomes the X-factor during the postseason run.

3. Jaxon Kohler

While the “Kohler bear” has been by far the best big for the Spartans this year, he is the biggest threat to be an X-factor. Jaxon Kohler is a unit on the boards, and has had stretches where his hook shot is lethal. Combined with stretches of good threes, and he can put everything together for the Spartans.

It speaks to Kohler that in the opening stretch of the game, he is the leading rebounder by the under-16. Multiple times, he will be out-rebounding the entire opposing team by his lonesome.

Kohler is among the team leaders in +/-, the leader in rebounds, and among the top scorers on this team. If he can unlock another level, not many teams stand a chance. He is a nightly threat for a double-double against Big Ten competition, and those teams and coaches see Kohler much more often than an ACC or Big 12 squad does.

He had a period where he struggled with fouls, but the junior has seemingly shaken that issue in the last few games. The next of my concerns for Kohler are his mercurial streaks from the arc. He will have times where nothing lands, but then the “wow” play that a big should not have shot, but Kohler hit in rhythm. Look at the Illinois game: 23 points, four made threes? At 6-foot-9? Good luck.

Wanna foul Kohler? Go ahead. The junior shoots 83 percent from the stripe. Kohler has only had one game all season with more than one miss from the charity line.

If Kohler goes off and averages a double-double in the post-season, the Spartans will be cutting the nets in April. That is how confident I am. Even if he does not quite average that, add in an Illinois-esque game and the Spartans advance a game that might have been an early end to their hopes.

Kohler has been the best big all year, and if he can find that next level with the games being one-and-done, he is the X-factor.

This is the most hopeful I have been about a Spartan run in March in quite some time, and I am eager for this postseason to begin. No matter which player winds up being the X-factor in the Big Ten Tournament, I’ll be trying my best to capture the magic. This team can win it all. They have a championship coach, no ego, and arguably the freshman on the biggest hot streak in the country. Add in any of these players breaking a slump or finding a new level, and it is over for the competition.