Michigan State basketball: 5 key factors and a prediction vs. No. 2 Purdue

Michigan State basketball will be in West Lafayette on Saturday night hoping for an upset. Here are the key factors and a prediction.

Before the season, Michigan State basketball at Purdue was the most anticipated game of the Big Ten season. It felt criminal that we wouldn’t get to see this matchup until March. As we fast-forward to the present day, it’s an afterthought on a loaded Saturday in college basketball. Still, this feels like a measuring stick type of game for Michigan State.

This Purdue team with Zach Edey at Mackey Arena is as difficult as it gets in college basketball.

Here are five things to watch for and a prediction.

1. Zach Edey

It’s impossible to talk about Purdue without talking about Zach Edey. If you’ve been living in a barn in the cornfields of Nebraska for the last few years, it won’t take you long to notice Edey on the court. At 7-foot-4 and 300 pounds, he’s impossible to miss. Edey was the National Player of the Year last season. He’s going to win the award again this season.

Edey complements his massive frame with an unnaturally soft touch around the rim. If he had been born 30 years earlier, NBA teams would have lost purposefully for the right to draft him first overall. Instead, Matt Painter and Purdue benefit from the NBA game getting smaller, faster, and less reliant on dominant center play.

Pick any statistic with Edey. It’s incredible. He’s shooting 63 percent from the field on over 350 attempts. He leads the Big Ten in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. He’s the most efficient player in America, per KenPom.

But Edey’s impact is felt the most with his ability to get to the free throw line and stay out of foul trouble himself. Edey is drawing over nine fouls per game while committing just over two. He’s shot 299 free throws this season. For his size, he’s a good shooter at 72 percent. Edey has the ability to stay in the game and dominate offensively while also taking your best frontcourt players out of the game.

We’re not just talking about a great college basketball player within the context of one or two seasons. Zach Edey is the most dominant offensive player I’ve seen in the college game. If he’s not double-teamed in the post, it usually results in a bucket. At worst, it’s a bucket plus a foul. If he doesn’t shoot, he usually kicks it out for an open three. Purdue owns the second-best offense in America, thanks largely to Edey. His number will hang in the rafters at Mackey Arena when he’s done. He’s set to join Bill Walton and Ralph Sampson as the only multi-time winners of the Naismith College Player of the Year Award.

2. Tyson Walker vs. Braden Smith

Alright, enough about Edey. Because while he is Purdue’s best player, his greatness is taken for granted at this point. Purdue’s most important player is Braden Smith. For as good as Edey was last season, Purdue fell short in March because of their guard play. Many believe Purdue is set to go far in March this year because of the progression of their guards; in particular Braden Smith.

For Michigan State basketball, it’ll go as far as Tyson Walker can take it. After a torrid start to the season, Walker has slowed a little bit. He’s battling through a groin injury, and he hasn’t shot the ball as well from three in conference play.

Both coaches know how important it is to get their guy going. As a result, I expect we’ll see Walker on Smith and Smith on Walker. Best against best. The way it should be.

While Smith is a capable scorer, he’s deadly with the ball in his hands distributing to teammates. It helps when you have Edey down low and the third-best three-point shooting team in America around you. Nonetheless, Smith has been outstanding at stuffing the stat sheet and running the offense.

The one area where Smith has been questionable this year is with turnovers. He’s committed a turnover in every game this season and hasn’t committed fewer than two since Dec. 21. That’s a little worrisome going up against a defensive thief like Walker. He has had at least one steal in 12 straight games.

The formula for a Michigan State basketball upset starts right here. Walker needs to win this matchup. The Spartans won’t be able to keep pace with a Purdue offense that’s firing on all cylinders. Making Smith uncomfortable is essential to slowing down the Boilermakers. It’s a tough ask for a guy gutting through an injury. But at his best, he’s capable of doing it. These matchups are why Walker came back to school. Let’s see what he can do.

3. Michigan State centers

On one end of the floor, Purdue has the best center in America. On the other end, Tom Izzo has been playing a game of musical chairs with the position. Carson Cooper, Mady Sissoko, Jaxon Kohler, and Xavier Booker have all spent time trying to lock down a spot. Nobody has emerged. It’s an obvious mismatch in this game, particularly on the glass.

Edey is the main reason Purdue is the best rebounding team in the Big Ten. But they also get solid production from Trey Kaufman-Renn and Mason Gillis. Michigan State, on the other hand, is one of the worst. Tom Izzo is going to have to handle his substitutions with that in mind. The Spartans can’t afford to give an offensive juggernaut like Purdue a bunch of second-chance opportunities.

Because Michigan State’s production at the position has been so unpredictable, Izzo is going to have to ride with the hot hand. Whoever is most active on the glass and engaged defensively needs to continue playing. On paper, MSU’s best option is Carson Cooper. He’s a capable rebounder and he has the length that could theoretically challenge Edey.

However, that’s going to be a lot easier said than done because of Edey’s tendency to draw fouls. In reality, Michigan State might need all five fouls from each player to get through this game. To the disappointment of many Michigan State basketball fans, this doesn’t project as a great matchup for Booker. His lack of strength is going to be exposed against Edey, and Matt Painter is too smart to let Edey guard him on the perimeter defensively.

Instead, I suspect MSU will go with a rotation of Sissoko and Cooper for as long as the officiating crew allows them to. The Spartans can’t be worried about getting offensive production out of the position. Rebounding is the top priority. If there is a weakness with this Purdue team, it shows up in the turnover department. If MSU can take care of the ball, they may be able to steal a couple of possessions. If they rebound well, they may be able to steal a few more.

4. Officiating

Like it or not, officiating plays a huge part in every Purdue game because of, you guessed it, Edey. He’s an impossible player to officiate. Because of his size, he swings his elbows into the heads of most defenders. The only way to defend him is to keep him out of the paint. To do that, you have to be physical. There’s no way to lightly try and knock a 300-pound human off position.

The end result is a lot of free throws for Purdue and not many for their opponent. Edey has gotten very good at playing defense without fouling. His length can cover up for his lack of quickness. It also allows him to recover quickly if he’s beaten.

I wasn’t joking when I mentioned that Michigan State may need all 20 fouls from their big men. That’s the way you have to play against Edey. You have to be physical. Make him work for every post touch, foul him hard, and make him earn it at the free throw line. After all, he is human. He gets frustrated. He gets tired.

Again, this is all easier said than done. A lot of that physicality that’s needed to play against Edey is dependent on how much the officials allow. A physical game favors Michigan State basketball. A whistle fest favors Purdue. It’s almost a certainty that Michigan State will be outshot at the free throw line by Purdue. That comes with the nature of each team’s offense. But it’s not necessarily about the fouls that are called. It’s about what won’t be called. MSU needs a rugby game down low to beat Edey and Purdue.

5. Mackey Arena

Michigan State hasn’t won at Mackey Arena since February 20, 2014. The Spartans are 0-7 at Mackey Arena since then with an NCAA Tournament loss to cap their struggles. There’s no shame in losing to Purdue in West Lafayette. Matt Painter has the program rolling and it’s an extremely loud venue.

The problem for Michigan State basketball is that it hasn’t been competitive. After losing by one point in overtime in 2016, the Spartans haven’t been able to keep it any closer than 10 in their other five defeats.

Living in the Chicago area, I’ve gotten to know some Purdue fans. The Michigan State game is a big game for them every year. It’s undoubtedly fueled by some of the epic games they’ve played over the years. But they don’t like how Izzo has taken some high-profile recruits out of Indiana. They also feel like Michigan State is a premiere program in college basketball. Beating the Spartans means something. My guess is they’re also a little bit jealous of the success the Spartans have had in March compared to their own. The point is, they’ll be revved up even beyond their usual level on a Saturday night with MSU in town.

That will be particularly noticeable at the start. This Michigan State team isn’t built to come from behind. Their offense is too inconsistent to put together scoring runs. Their rebounding isn’t good enough to shut the water off defensively. MSU has to find a way to survive the first eight minutes of this game. While it’s not his style, Tom Izzo will need to be aggressive with his timeout usage. If Purdue can extend this out to double-digits, it’s really hard to see Michigan State clawing back in given all its disadvantages.

Prediction

Purdue comes in favored by 10.5 points with a total of 145. Michigan State basketball hasn’t been that big of an underdog all season. When you look at where both of these teams are at, with the advantage that Mackey Arena provides, the line makes sense.

Truthfully, I think Zach Edey could name his stat line in this game. He dominated Michigan State in both matchups last year. In two games, Edey averaged 35 points and 15 rebounds. I haven’t seen anything from Michigan State’s interior defense to suggest that they can slow him down. They don’t have the strength, length, athleticism, or savvy in any of their defensive options.

Even if Edey has an off night, Purdue is a lethal 3-point shooting team. The Boilermakers are shooting over 40 percent from deep, with four players clearing that mark with their season averages. It’s also worth noting that an “off night” for Edey is still probably good for 18 points and 10 rebounds. Purdue enjoys other huge advantages in rebounding and fouls drawn.

But this has been a long week for Tom Izzo and Michigan State. After two straight losses people have called him “washed”. They’ve labeled this team “soft”. Nobody on earth is giving Michigan State a chance to win this game. This hopeless feeling is typically followed by something completely unexpected.

Michigan State has nothing to lose in this game. As a true underdog for the first time in months, I think we’ll get Michigan State’s best effort. Oftentimes in these night-time home games on a Saturday, the buildup actually works against the home team. I’m banking on some of that happening here. For what it’s worth, aside from a 30-point drubbing of Rutgers, Purdue has looked a little vulnerable of late. Minnesota took the Boilermakers deep into the second half before their loss to Ohio State. Last weekend, they let an awful Michigan team hang around way too long.

This is without a doubt the dumbest prediction I’ve ever made. I hope Old Takes Exposed is reading. I’m psychotic. But these two weeks’ worth of pain feels like the remedy needed to exorcize the demons of Mackey Arena. Michigan State competes on the glass, takes care of the ball, and gets an epic game from their backcourt. Edey may go for 45, but MSU doesn’t let any of the other Boilermakers beat them from three.

Prediction: Michigan State 74, Purdue 72