Michigan State basketball: 5 keys and a prediction vs. Michigan

This is why we watch sports. Michigan and Michigan State basketball renew a classic rivalry with first place in the Big Ten on the line. After the past few years of juiceless games between these programs, this one needs no introduction.

Given the stakes, this is arguably the biggest game between the Mitten State schools since 2019. There will be no “soft launch” for Michigan first-year head coach Dusty May. He’ll get to experience the most intense atmosphere that this game has to offer. For Tom Izzo, it’s another chance to beat the school he so famously “doesn’t like anything about”.

Here are five of the biggest factors in this game, followed by a prediction.

1. Michigan’s big men

The twin tower tandem of Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin have anchored Michigan’s surprising run to the front of the Big Ten. The pair of 7-footers form an unusual tandem that has proved extremely difficult for opposing defenses to solve. Wolf is uncharacteristically mobile for his size and essentially acts as a giant point guard for the Michigan offense. Goldin serves as his counterpart, rolling off screens, rim running, and crashing the boards. That size has helped Michigan shoot over 59 percent from two this season, which is top five nationally.

As the game has gotten smaller, with an emphasis on shooting and spacing, most teams aren’t comfortable playing two big men at the same time. But to avoid getting worked on the glass, you almost have to against Michigan. This unorthodox style gives the Wolverines an advantage because it’s just not something you can easily prepare for.

Michigan State’s decisions with how they want to defend this are the most fascinating aspect of the game. The Spartans are good, but not great in the front court. It’s an area that Michigan can expose, especially if Izzo elects to play two of his big men at the same time.

To me, the more interesting options are with Michigan State’s wing players, Coen Carr and Frankie Fidler. Because even though Wolf is a threat off the dribble, nobody is confusing him with Kevin Durant. There is a clumsiness with his game that shows up against more athletic players. If the Spartans can bother him with smaller, more agile defenders, then he will turn the ball over, which will lead to fast break chances for Michigan State basketball. And on the other end of the floor, MSU should use the two big men strategy against Dusty May with players that can win off the dribble.

It’s much easier said than done. But matching Michigan’s size plays right into what they want. The Spartans have the depth. They should use it to their advantage and find combinations that throw Michigan off from what they want to do.

2. Michigan State’s guards

For as hungry as May is to take advantage of MSU’s front court, Izzo is sharing the same appetite for his guard play. Because the Wolverines aren’t here because of their back court. Nor do they have a ton of depth at the position.

Dusty May has four players for three spots. Tre Donaldson, Rubin Jones, Roddy Gayle, and Nimari Burnett will be rotating throughout the night. Donaldson and Burnett are great shooters, but Gayle and Jones have been erratic for most of the year. But most importantly, when things get hairy, the Wolverines don’t have that steady force that can right the ship.

We know that Jaden Akins is going to make life difficult for whoever he is guarding. Unexpectedly, Tre Holloman has emerged as MSU’s best option at point guard. Jase Richardson is one of the most efficient offensive players in the conference. And Jeremy Fears will continue to push the tempo to get Michigan State transition buckets.

The Spartans’ depth at the position is overwhelming. It’s a crafty group of players that can get to the rim and get to the free throw line. But their court vision, and willingness to play unselfishly is what makes this MSU offense hum. Michigan State leads the Big Ten in assists to field goals made, which is a sign that they get good shots.

3. Turnovers

It’s not a matter of if, but rather, when Michigan turns the ball over. Nobody in the Big Ten does it more than the Wolverines. In fact, they rank 331st in America in turnover percentage. We saw how this can play to Michigan State’s advantage against Purdue.

When the Boilermakers were careless with the ball, Michigan State basketball seized the chance to get out in transition. The Spartans are one of the best transition offenses in America. And if Michigan provides the fuel to start that fire, it’s going to be a problem.

Michigan plays at one of the quickest offensive tempos in the country. That, combined with their high turnover rate, creates some chaotic sequences. We’ve seen opponents like Indiana and UCLA stifle this MSU offense in the half court. The Spartans would prefer an up and down game.

If Michigan’s turnover woes continue, there are going to be easy baskets for MSU at the other end. That’s key, because Michigan is a solid group defending in the half court. But their defensive effectiveness in this game will only be as strong as their turnovers allow them to be.

4. Three-point shooting

It’s not worth going through Michigan State’s shooting woes. You’re very familiar with it at this point. Twenty-six games into the season, it feels unlikely that it will get any better. In this game, on the road, anything above 33 percent from three for Michigan State is found money.

The more interesting topic is the Michigan shooting. At 36 percent, the Wolverines are a top-65 shooting team nationally. In conference play, they are relying on 32 percent of their total points to come from deep. On paper, that figures to be a disadvantage against MSU’s top ranked 3-point defense.

But with MSU opponents shooting only 28 percent in Big Ten play, I fear there may be some regression coming towards the Spartans. Think about how poor MSU has been at shooting the three. Now, consider the fact that MSU has held conference opponents below their own pathetic percentage.

At home, role players always shoot better. Burnett, Donaldson, and Will Tschetter are the guys that fit that bill for Michigan. And at the end of the day, three is worth more than two. Even with turnovers and fast break points, Michigan can win this game by outscoring MSU at the 3-point line. Michigan State hasn’t had a game this year where their opponent just goes nuclear from deep. Friday presents that possibility.

5. Close game?

It would be mildly surprising if either team won this game by more than two possessions. That matters, because one team is used to playing close games. The other is not.

Michigan hasn’t won a game by more than four points since Jan. 12. Seven wins in a row, all by four points or fewer.

Michigan State basketball, meanwhile, has two wins all season by fewer than four points. Furthermore, the Spartans haven’t really found themselves in many close games at all. The loss against UCLA is really the only game that featured multiple “tie or take the lead” type possessions over the final minutes.

“Finding ways to win” is a cliché, but it does matter. Valuing possessions. Executing out of bounds plays. Making free throws. These are all things that become amplified late in close games. Michigan has been able to find the answers in conference play. Michigan State is relatively untested.

Prediction

Michigan is favored by 3.5 at home in Crisler Arena. If this game were in East Lansing, I’d expect MSU to be favored by about the same number. These teams are quite even. In the standings, analytically, and everywhere in between.

I love this game because I think both sides feel like there is an advantage that they can expose. Michigan in the frontcourt, and Michigan State with their transition offense. That means this is going to come down to coaching. Which side can find the best counter to their own deficiencies? It’s going to be awesome to watch.

To me, the difference in this game has nothing to do with basketball. It’s between the ears. On the Michigan side, Tschetter and Burnett are the only guys that have played in this game. And with all due respect to May, you can’t simulate what this game means to Izzo and Michigan State basketball until you’ve experienced it.

From a basketball perspective, I do think MSU is the better team. They have options to throw at Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin. The data suggests that Michigan is going to turn the ball over, and that’s a death sentence against MSU’s transition game. Michigan also wants to play fast, which plays right into the Spartans’ strength.

The Wolverines have been running hot, winning six in a row. But their record in close games is unsustainable. Michigan State’s guard play prevails, and the Spartans leave Ann Arbor with a share of the lead in the Big Ten race.

Prediction: Michigan State 75, Michigan 73