Michigan State basketball: 5 keys and a prediction vs. Mississippi State

Michigan State basketball is gearing up to face Mississippi State on Thursday afternoon. Here’s how the Spartans win.

Michigan State basketball will kick off the Round of 64 in the 2024 NCAA Tournament on Thursday against Mississippi State. These are the 8/9-seeds in the West Region, respectively. The winner (presumably) gets North Carolina on Saturday.

Here, we’ll take a deep dive into both teams to try and identify the five most important things to watch. From there, I’ll offer a prediction on the winner.

Let’s get to it.

1. Guard play

We’ll spend a lot of time here breaking down multiple aspects of this game, but the entire handicap may simply be “the better backcourt wins”. The headliners here are Tyson Walker for Michigan State and Josh Hubbard for Mississippi State. Both players are off-ball guards that are high-usage, high-volume shooters and scorers.

While they profile as similar players, their games are quite different in terms of where their points come from. Walker has gotten much more of his scoring in the paint and from the mid-range. Hubbard is content to bomb away from 3-point range. He’s shooting 36 percent this season on a jaw-dropping 293 attempts. For reference, Walker leads MSU in 3-point attempts with 158. But he has attempted 344 shots from two compared to just 167 for Hubbard.

Michigan State is going to complement Walker with a backcourt trio of A.J. Hoggard, Jaden Akins, and Tre Holloman. For Mississippi State, it’s just a two-man rotation with Dashawn Davis and Shakeel Moore. The Spartans should have an advantage here with their balance. Davis and Moore are pretty good shooters, but neither has shown the ability to carry the Bulldogs offensively.

Conversely, with MSU, we’ve seen Hoggard take over games with his ability to get to the rim. We’ve also seen Akins ignite from three. Davis and Moore are true role players who are going to defer to Hubbard and big man Tolu Smith.

The Spartans also enjoy a nice size advantage in the backcourt. Hubbard, Davis, and Moore are all 6-foot-2 or shorter. That depth and size could present real challenges for Hubbard. Tom Izzo should be able to throw longer, fresher bodies at him all afternoon. And the one thing that is very apparent with Hubbard is that he will not stop shooting. He shot 18 (!!) threes in a game earlier this year against Texas A&M. He’s a classic volume shooter that can win games with heroic performances or completely shoot his team out of them.

2. Tolu Smith

Tolu Smith was briefly mentioned above, but he deserves his own highlight in this preview because he is Mississippi State’s most impactful player. He also plays the position where Michigan State basketball has the most problems. After missing the first part of the season due to injury, the 6-foot-11 senior has returned to average 15 points and eight rebounds. When he’s right, Smith is an efficient scorer in the low post and a very strong rebounder.

His play feels particularly important to this matchup because this is where Mississippi State should have a clear advantage. Michigan State has been searching for answers at center all season long. The situation got a little cloudier on Wednesday when Carson Cooper was seen practicing with a mask after taking an elbow to the face against Purdue. Cooper has emerged as Michigan State’s best defensive option at the position, and he has the size to go up against Smith. Will there be an adjustment to playing with the mask and are his minutes impacted by it?

Ironically, this could be a situation where Michigan State’s uncertainty at the position plays to their advantage. Smith is a horrendous foul shooter, at just 56 percent on the season. It’s in the Spartans’ best interest to use their fouls and put him on the line. That’s going to force them to use all of their big men. The fact that neither is substantially better than the other allows them to be physical and force Smith to beat them from the free throw line.

Where it hurts them is on the other end. A big man with offensive prowess could force Smith into foul trouble. He’s picked up at least four personal fouls in seven games this season. The Bulldogs are just 2-5 in those games. This is a Mississippi State offense that can go through droughts. That becomes even more pronounced when Smith isn’t on the floor. His availability and impact on this game are crucial.

3. 3-point shooting

Mississippi State’s most impressive statistic is their three-point defense. The Bulldogs are allowing opponents to shoot 29.4% against them, good for sixth in America. It’s even more impressive when you factor in opponents taking over 41 percent of their total attempts from three. This is a defense that allows a lot of attempts, and very few conversions.

Interestingly, the Spartans aren’t very reliant on the three, accumulating only 26 percent of their points from there. This is a game where Michigan State’s mid-range offense may be effective. The Bulldogs may be content to give up mid-range looks at the expense of 3-pointers. At the very least, Michigan State is prepared to operate an offense that isn’t centered around making three-pointers.

In a game that projects to be slow and low scoring, all three-pointers are going to feel like game-changing daggers. In that regard, the big advantage goes to Michigan State. The Spartans are a good shooting team, ranking 65th in America at 36 percent from three. Mississippi State, meanwhile, sits at 247th (32.5%).

Those numbers make Michigan State’s defensive philosophy against Tolu Smith very interesting. To me, it’s clear that the Spartans should double team him every chance they get. Smith’s assist numbers aren’t anything impressive, and he has a tendency to turn the ball over. Make him navigate a double team and make the Mississippi State shooters prove that they can burn you from downtown.

And while I’m a believer in Mississippi State’s 3-point defense, it’s always impossible to tell if that metric implies excellent defense or good old fashioned luck. It’s worth noting that out of 31 conferences, the SEC graded out 24th in 3-point shooting percentage (33.5%). That’s with the nation’s leader, Kentucky, pacing the league at 41 percent.

What is crystal clear is that Mississippi State’s defense is going to give up looks from deep. They will play to their strength and prove that you can beat them from there. For Michigan State basketball to win, it’ll have to show that it can do it.

4. Turnovers

Let’s flip to the other end of the spectrum, where Mississippi State’s metrics are impressively poor. It’s turnovers. Nobody in the SEC turned the ball over more than the Bulldogs. They turn the ball over on almost 19 percent of their possessions, good for 290th in America.

The issues are all over the place, as they grade poorly in both steal and non-steel turnover percentages. That’s a problem against Michigan State. While the Spartans’ defensive philosophy isn’t built on generating turnovers, they’ve been solid at coming up with them all season. Their quickness at guard with Tyson Walker and Jaden Akins is the main reason.

For as good as the Spartans are at taking the ball away, they are even better at protecting it. They have three strong ball-handlers, along with big men who aren’t asked to put the ball on the floor.

In an up-tempo game, taking care of the ball isn’t as important because the number of possessions is greater. In this type of slugfest though, it’s crucial to value possessions. If Michigan State can win the turnover battle and steal a couple possessions or easy baskets in transition, that might be the difference.

5. Rebounding and free throws

Mississippi State will look to even out the possessions in this game by getting after it on the offensive glass. Per KenPom, Mississippi State is a top-20 team nationally in offensive rebounding. We know that’s an area where Michigan State basketball can get sloppy.

While Tolu Smith gets all the attention, the Bulldogs have great length on the wings with a pair of 6-foot-7 forwards in Cameron Matthews and D.J. Jeffries. Blocking out those guys becomes vitally important for Malik Hall and the MSU guards that aren’t defending Hubbard.

With Mississippi State’s shooting difficulties well documented, you can expect them to look to score after grabbing a miss. This is where Michigan State must remember the scouting report. They have to foul. The Bulldogs shoot 67 percent as a team from the free-throw line, good for 324th in the nation. Josh Hubbard shoots it at 85 percent. But the rest of the main contributors shoot near or below 70 percent.

While that is comforting for Michigan State, they’ve had their own issues at the line this year. MSU shoots it slightly better at 71 percent, but that’s nothing to brag about. Neither team is overly reliant on the free throw line to score. But it’s something to keep in mind late in this game if things get tight.

Prediction

Michigan State basketball is a one-point favorite over Mississippi State. The total has been set at 130.5. Vegas is predicting a 66-65 win for Michigan State, or something close to that. To me, that’s spot on. These teams are near mirror images of each other with the way they play and the way they profile.

Both teams are content leaning on their defense in a low scoring grinder. Both coaches are going to trust their lead guards to get enough buckets offensively. Neither team has enough punch to pull away. I’d be stunned if either team won this game by more than five points.

That’s exactly the way it should be in these eight vs. nine-seed games.

I’m giving the slightest edge to Michigan State in this game because of their depth at guard. While I’m not sure if MSU can completely shut down Josh Hubbard, their ability to confidently throw multiple defenders at him should at least slow him down. The freshman hasn’t always shown the ability to let the game come to him, and he may try and do too much on the big stage.

Beyond that, I do think Michigan State does the little things better. They are better in the turnover department. They are the better 3-point and free throw shooting team. And despite their rebounding issues, they’ve been better as of late. Mississippi State’s fortunes are tied to two players. That leaves them with a slim margin for error. The Spartans can beat you with a number of different combinations. It will be close. It will be nerve-wracking. It will certainly be ugly. But I do think Michigan State basketball advances.

Final score: Michigan State 68, Mississippi State 67