Play will resume in the South Region of the NCAA Tournament on Friday with Michigan State basketball taking on Ole Miss. Tom Izzo and Chris Beard will meet for the first time since 2019, when Beard’s Texas Tech Red Raiders advanced to the national title game. This time, the stakes are just as high, with the winner advancing to the elite eight, and the loser going home.
Here are five things to watch for, and a prediction of Friday’s events in Atlanta.
1. Rebounding
On paper, this is the biggest mismatch in the game. If Ole Miss is going to win, they’ll have to rebound the ball at a level that they haven’t all season. The Rebels come into the game ranking 226th in defensive rebound percentage and 314th in offensive rebound percentage. Compare that to Michigan State, which ranks in the top 20 in both categories, and this becomes the number one thing to watch.
It’s worth mentioning that the Rebels’ lack of success on the offensive glass is by design. They don’t chase offensive boards, opting instead to get back on defense and prevent transition opportunities. That will be important here, because the Spartans need to get in transition for easy scoring chances. But there’s really no strategy behind the poor defensive rebounding metrics. That is an area Michigan State can exploit.
Ole Miss is a small team. They don’t play anyone over 6-foot-9, and their backcourt features two players who are under 6-foot-2. Chris Beard has also deployed 6-foot-6 wing Dre Davis as his primary option at power forward, which essentially puts four guards on the floor at once. KenPom ranks Ole Miss 327th in the country in average height.
That should be salivating for the Spartans, who have several ways to exploit that advantage with their personnel. Even Michigan State’s smallest lineup, with Coen Carr playing power forward, gives them a height and rebounding advantage. And if they go bigger, with two big men, that advantage becomes more pronounced.
It’s not a matter of if Michigan State basketball wins the rebounding battle. But rather, by how much. There’s a spread that becomes insurmountable for Ole Miss, regardless of what else happens in this game.
2. Malik Dia and Jaxon Kohler
You’re going to hear a lot of people talk about the guard play. Yes, Sean Pedulla, Jaylen Murray, Jaden Akins, and Jace Richardson are important. But this battle, or lack thereof, between Kohler and Dia is more important.
Malik Dia is the Rebels’ biggest player and best rebounder. Any chance Ole Miss has at hanging with Michigan State basketball on the boards starts with a good effort out of him. Kohler is the guy that Izzo would like to put on him, since he is Michigan State’s best rebounder who can match Dia’s size.
But it’s not that simple. There’s a lot of uncertainty here.
Despite the similarities in their size, these two are very different players. Dia is an athletic big, with the ability to play on the perimeter. Kohler can do some of that on offense. But, we just watched a different 6-foot-9 forward with perimeter skills give the Spartans problems. Mustapha Amzil, of New Mexico, torched MSU early on, and forced Izzo to go with a smaller lineup, limiting Kohler to 17 minutes.
If Beard can similarly use Dia, then we’ll likely see more of Frankie Fidler and Coen Carr, as we did against New Mexico. That’s key, because without Kohler, Michigan State’s advantage on the glass is diminished.
But any Ole Miss fans reading this know that’s far easier said than done. Dia has been a tough player to figure out this season. His minutes and his effectiveness fluctuate from game to game. It will be fascinating to see how often these players are matched up against each other, and who has the advantage when they do.
Dia’s athleticism can cause problems for Michigan State basketball. But Jaxon Kohler’s energy is tough to simulate. It could catch Dia by surprise. If you can take your eyes away from the ball, direct them to the low block, and watch these two go at it. I have a feeling the team that can get more out of their guy will win this game.
3. Jase Richardson
Michigan State basketball fans’ worst nightmare came to fruition on Sunday when Jase Richardson had an off night. The star freshman finished with six points, going 1-for-10 from the field. The Spartans were able to survive, thanks to some unexpected contributions from Frankie Fidler and an efficient game from Jaden Akins.
But for MSU to get further in this tournament, they need Richardson to be a bigger force offensively. His play dictates the ceiling for the Spartans. The better he plays, the tougher they are to beat.
Ole Miss is going to defend in a way that puts even more pressure and importance on Richardson. The way to beat a Chris Beard defense is with 3-pointers and isolation scoring. As we know, those are areas of weakness for this Spartan offense.
But the one guy that possesses the ability to do both of those things is Jase Richardson. The Rebels possess an elite transition defense. I wouldn’t be surprised if their interest in offensive rebounding is even less than normal, given how important it is to get back on defense to stop Michigan State’s transition game.
That’s going to emphasize half-court execution. The Spartan offense gets clunky in that setting, and it often comes down to Richardson scoring on his own or creating opportunities for others. He’s been so impressive this season because of his efficiency and patience within the offense. On Friday, he may need to be a little more aggressive and demand the ball more than he’s used to. Michigan State needs him to be a difference-maker.
4. Three-point shooting
Basketball is a funny game. You can spend as much time as you want analyzing a game. But sometimes, one team gets hot from three and nothing else matters. Threes are important on Friday because Ole Miss is running hot right now. The Rebels shot 19-for-39 in their two games last weekend, including an 11-for-19 effort in their win over Iowa State.
That volcanic pace will be put to the ultimate test against the top-rated 3-point defense in America. For the season, the Spartans are now allowing opponents to shoot just 27.8% from deep. And while there may be some luck involved, the sample size is large enough at this point. Michigan State’s defense has more to do with this than anything.
The Rebels’ shooting last weekend was fairly surprising because this isn’t known as a great shooting team. If they are to stay hot, it’s likely because of Sean Pedulla (39%), Jaylen Murray (37%), and Jaemyn Brakefield (35%).
We know Michigan State basketball can’t shoot, making only 31 percent of its attempts on the season. But I think the missed three-pointers are just as important as the made ones in this game.
Missed outside shots usually generate long rebounds. That gives the defensive rebounding team a jump start on their fast break. Part of Michigan State’s advantage in fast break points comes from the fact that they defend the three extremely well, and start a high percentage of possessions in transition off of those misses.
We know Ole Miss has no interest in offensive rebounding. If MSU can force the Rebels into contested looks, grab the misses, and push the tempo, they might be able to steal some transition opportunities. On the other end, we know Chris Beard’s “no middle defense” is going to generate looks from three. Again, the Spartans’ advantage on the offensive glass comes into play.
Missed threes can create second-chance opportunities at the rim. But they can also generate wide-open looks from three. MSU’s best offense in this game might come after their first missed shot attempt.
If Ole Miss cools from three, and Michigan State can grab enough of their misses, they should enjoy a sizable possession advantage in this game.
5. The whistle
There’s nothing we, as fans, love more than officials making a big game about themselves. This is your warning. Friday’s game has the potential to turn into an officiating mess.
Chris Beard’s defensive style is successful because it’s extremely aggressive. But that comes with a cost. The Rebels foul a ton. They’re willing to live with foul trouble and a free throw deficit to enforce their will on the defensive end.
On the other hand, you have a Michigan State basketball team that has become very good at generating fouls. Jeremy Fears Jr. changed the game against New Mexico by getting to the free throw line and putting the Lobos in foul trouble.
That makes officiating a massive factor in this game. A tightly called game favors Michigan State. Not only are they better at getting to the free throw line. But they are better at converting when they get there, shooting almost 78 percent on the season.
And while Chris Beard will be comfortable giving away some fouls, Michigan State is not a team that you want to get into a “battle of the benches” with. Ole Miss ranks outside the top 200 in bench minutes, compared to a Michigan State basketball team that will play nine guys.
But there is a world where this becomes a street fight. The officiating in college basketball is wildly unpredictable. You can guarantee that Ole Miss picked up on the way Jeremy Fears Jr. drew some of those fouls and will communicate that relentlessly to this officiating crew.
Prediction
Michigan State opened as a 2.5-point favorite in Atlanta on Friday night. That has since moved to Michigan State -3.5. The total is currently at 143.5. Of all eight games in the Sweet 16, this one currently has the tightest spread.
Even though Ole Miss is the second-lowest seed remaining in this tournament, their analytical profile is much closer to a 4 or 5-seed. The Rebels currently rank 21st in KenPom, one spot behind Michigan. So, this line makes a lot of sense.
The one thing I’m certain of is that Ole Miss will not be intimidated. This is the third most experienced team in all of college basketball. They went through the SEC gauntlet this year and have seen the best teams that the sport has to offer.
They won’t be surprised by Michigan State’s physicality or speed. And because of that, it’s paramount that Michigan State basketball gets off to a good start. The Spartans have made a habit out of starting slow. And if they play the first half that they did in both games last weekend, it won’t matter how well they play in the second.
But in a game that projects to be this close, I have to default to what I see as the biggest mismatch on the floor, which is Michigan State’s rebounding advantage. The Spartans can own the possession battle and generate more scoring chances off their misses. If the Rebels are willing to concede offensive rebounds of their own in favor of transition defense, I’m not sure they can beat this Michigan State defense taking one shot per possession.
Most of Ole Miss’s wins against high-quality competition this season have come at home. And for all the talk about Chris Beard besting Tom Izzo in the 2019 Final Four, it’s worth pointing out how dominant that Texas Tech team was defensively (number one in KenPom). Ole Miss will give MSU problems throughout this game. But let’s not compare those two teams.
The impartial dissector in me sees the advantage for Michigan State. But the fan in me knows this will be a very stressful evening. Michigan State uses the free throw line and the glass to advance in an ugly, grinding game that will feature few memorable highlights.
Prediction: Michigan State, 68, Ole Miss 66
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