Michigan State basketball: Analysis and a prediction vs. Rutgers

Michigan State basketball will look to stay undefeated in Big Ten play this weekend as they travel to Madison Square Garden to play Rutgers. Here, we’ll dive deeper into MSU’s opponent before providing an update on the Spartans. From there, we’ll analyze the gambling line and offer a prediction.

Let’s get to it.

Scouting Rutgers

It’s hard to give the “most disappointing team” award to anyone in the Big Ten other than Indiana. But if there were a silver medalist, Rutgers would get my vote. The Scarlet Knights made headlines by nabbing two premier high school recruits in this freshman class. Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper were both consensus five-star, top-five prospects in this recruiting cycle. Both players are projected to be high lottery picks in next summer’s NBA draft.

At Rutgers, Steve Pikiell has transformed the perennial doormat into a respected program by doing more with less. With this kind of talent, the natural thought was for Rutgers to take the next step forward. So far, that hasn’t happened. A step backward is probably a nice way to put it.

At 10-9, Rutgers is nowhere near the NCAA Tournament bubble, with losses to Kennesaw State and Princeton. They sit 82nd in KenPom and are projected to finish below .500 for the second season in a row.

From afar, the problems appear obvious. A program that has built its reputation on the defensive end of the floor isn’t getting the job done. In Pikell’s nine seasons in Piscataway, his Rutgers teams have never rated lower than 70th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The 2025 version of his squad ranks outside the top 100.

While nothing glaring sticks out in the defensive profile, Rutgers is just plain bad in several areas. They rank outside the top 200 in effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, and offensive rebound percentage. A program that traditionally played games in the 60s and low 70s now needs to score 80 to win this season. Rutgers has one win this year when they scored fewer than 70 points.

One of the unintended consequences of NIL within college sports is that teams at the high major level have become a lot older, with players in their fourth or fifth year collecting big paychecks. That has created a steeper jump from high school basketball to college. For Rutgers, that appears to be part of the problem. Aside from Harper and Bailey, the Knights are relying on two other freshmen to contribute major minutes. Their highest usage lineup over the past five games features all four freshmen at once. That youth could be blamed for part of the struggles defensively.

The Rutgers offense is better than its defense, but it still falls into the “middling” category. Their most redeeming quality is that they take care of the basketball, and they play with tempo. Truthfully, you don’t need to dive too far into the numbers to realize that the Scarlet Knight offense will go as far as Bailey and Harper can take them. Both players average over 19 points per game. Nobody else scores more than eight.

Bailey and Harper have attempted 275 and 250 shots this season, respectively. Jeremiah Williams is a distant third with 109. It’s a two-man offense. And Rutgers likely needs a minimum of 40-45 points from that duo to win on any given night.

Michigan State basketball update

On the completely other end of the spectrum, Michigan State comes in as the most surprising team in the conference. The Spartans came into the season around +900 to win the Big Ten. At 7-0, they are currently the favorites.

And unlike this Rutgers team that is built around two players, the Spartans roll deep. Tom Izzo comfortably plays 10 guys, with only one player (Jaden Akins) averaging more than 10 points per game.

As usual under Izzo, the Spartans defend at a high level, possessing a top-20 defense nationally. Per KenPom, MSU is the best defensive team in the Big Ten, leading the league in effective field goal percentage defense, three-point defense, and blocks.

But the most interesting aspect of this Michigan State basketball team is their offensive efficiency. Despite being one of the worst outside shooting teams in the country, the Spartans are currently the best offensive team in the Big Ten. It’s highly unusual to grade out this well analytically without a high level of three-point efficiency. The Spartans are a bit of an outlier. So, how have they done it?

Pace. Offensive rebounding. Free throw shooting.

The Spartans are playing as fast as they ever have under Tom Izzo. Only the 2020 team played with more tempo. They’ve also gotten back to crashing the glass on the offensive end. MSU leads the Big Ten and ranks 21st in America in offensive rebound percentage. Finally, the Spartans are converting at the free throw line at an elite level. At 81.4%, they are currently the best free throw shooting team of the Tom Izzo era.

As mentioned, the Spartans have been difficult to prepare for because of their balanced attack. Every night, it seems like somebody new emerges as the top offensive option. Against Illinois, it was Tre Holloman. Against Penn State, it was Frankie Fidler. Jaden Akins against Washington. Szymon Zapala against Ohio State.

While points are fun, and get most of the attention, the obvious difference maker is point guard Jeremy Fears. He is the catalyst for this relentless Spartan transition game, ranking second in the country in assist rate. He sees the floor in a way that Tom Izzo loves, and he’s been an annoyance to opponents with his ability to draw fouls.             

The flaw with Michigan State for the past six weeks has been their strength of schedule. Against Illinois on Sunday, Michigan State basketball silenced a lot of those doubters. With some unexpected losses from other Big Ten contenders, the Spartans have a real opportunity over the next two weeks to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the league.

Gambling line and a prediction

KenPom projects Michigan State basketball as a six-point favorite. If you’ve been paying attention to college basketball point spreads, you’ve noticed that the sportsbooks have placed heavy taxes on home underdogs.

Even though this is a neutral site game, I’d expect Rutgers to get the same type of home court tax in this situation. Rutgers’ power rating and market perception has been suppressed by an illness that kept Dylan Harper extremely ineffective for a few games in early January. Conversely, sharp bettors will likely be looking to sell high on the Spartans after winning 11 games in a row.

It’s a tricky spot for Michigan State. Despite Rutgers’ record and analytical profile, they will still have the two most talented players on the floor. Harper and Bailey are a threat to combine for 60-plus points any time they lace up their shoes. Madison Square Garden has also been a house of horror for Michigan State through the years.

Still, MSU holds nearly every advantage in this game. Rutgers has been horrible at the rim, and the transition game should thrive against a Rutgers team that has no interest in slowing the game down. The Spartans also hold a decisive advantage on the offensive glass against the smaller Scarlet Knights. And even though the Spartans have been woeful at shooting the three, Rutgers is allowing opponents to shoot nearly 36 percent in league play.

Jaden Akins will likely draw the defensive assignment against Dylan Harper. That should be fascinating to watch, as Akins is one of the best perimeter defenders in the conference. At 6-foot-10, Ace Bailey is a difficult matchup with his length. But at just 200 pounds, MSU might try to bully him with a shorter, stronger defender like Coen Carr. Seeing as they are near mirror images of each other physically, I’d expect Xavier Booker to take his turn as well.

This likely comes down to how far this freshman duo can carry Rutgers. I’d like Rutgers a lot more if this were a three-on-three game. But it’s not. The New York crowd will help keep this a close game. But down the stretch, Michigan State’s defense and free throw shooting are the difference.

Prediction: Michigan State 82, Rutgers 78