Michigan State basketball bubble talk: NCAA Tournament case and biggest challenges

Michigan State basketball is squarely on the bubble heading into Selection Sunday. Here’s the case for the Spartans.

After beating Minnesota on Thursday afternoon in the Big Ten Tournament, the Spartans’ NCAA Tournament status felt safe. It would take a chaotic weekend of upsets, bid stealers, and weekend runs from other bubble teams to keep Michigan State basketball out.

Well, that chaos unfolded in the worst way possible on Saturday, making this Selection Sunday particularly sweaty for Michigan State and the rest of the bubble. NC State and Oregon stole bids in the ACC and Pac-12. Duquesne or VCU will steal another one out of the A-10 on Sunday. New Mexico went from a bubble team to a lock after winning the Mountain West Tournament.

Here, we’ll take a further look at Michigan State’s resume and how it compares to other teams they’re expected to compete with. We’ll weigh the pros and cons of each resume to try and get an idea of what to expect heading into the Selection Show. Buckle up.

Michigan State’s resume

Record (conference): 19-14 (11-11)
Quad 1 record: 3-9
Quad 1+2 record: 9-14
NET ranking: 24
Quad 3/4 losses: 0
NET OOC SOS: 44

The Spartans’ resume is far from impressive. Their saving grace could end up being their NET ranking. I’m not intimately familiar with how the formula works, but my guess is that MSU has been able to sustain a positive NET ranking because they’ve blown out bad teams and been competitive in losses. Of their 14 losses, just three came by double-digits, and none have been by more than 15. But their number of losses combined with only three Quad 1 wins is enough to keep them out. Michigan State basketball did take care of business against lesser competition, recording zero losses to Quads 3/4 teams.

Michigan State has also been pretty bad away from home, with a 5-10 record in away and neutral site games. The Spartans also did themselves no favors down the stretch, losing five of eight games to close the season.

According to Bracket Matrix, which aggregates all major bracket projections, the Spartans are in the field in every projection. Most have them as a double-digit seed, likely due to yesterday’s activity. While that guarantees nothing heading into Sunday night, it’s reassuring to see so many have confidence in MSU’s resume.

How does that resume compare to others fighting for an at-large bid? We’ll take a brief look at the profiles of other teams and how they compare to MSU.

Colorado

Record (conference): 24-10 (15-8)
Quad 1 record: 4-5
Quad 1+2 record: 10-15
NET ranking: 25
Quad 3/4 losses: 0
NET OOC SOS: 262

Colorado racked up a nice record due to their terrible non-conference schedule and the Pac-12 having a down year. Still, they present a strong analytics profile and have fared better against Quads 1/2. The Buffaloes probably locked up their bid with their run to the Pac-12 Tournament title game. Bracket Matrix has Colorado in the field in most projections. I struggle to see how their profile is any worse than Michigan State’s.

TCU

Record (conference): 21-12 (10-10)
Quad 1 record: 5-11
Quad 1+2 record: 8-12
NET ranking: 42
Quad 3/4 losses: 0
NET OOC SOS: 328

TCU appears safely in the field according to Bracket Matrix, but that could be biased towards their early-season results. The Horned Frogs lost four of their last six games and left something to be desired with their NET ranking. Their horrendous non-conference schedule could be a reason to leave them out. There are no notable wins outside of Big 12 play and they lost their two biggest tests against Nevada and Clemson. They did win a potential elimination game against Oklahoma on Thursday at the Big 12 Tournament. Wins against Houston and Baylor are their strongest argument for a bid.

Oklahoma

Record (conference): 20-12 (8-11)
Quad 1 record: 4-12
Quad 1+2 record: 9-12
NET ranking: 46
Quad 3/4 Losses: 0
NET OOC SOS: 274

Speaking of Oklahoma, its situation seems to be a lot more tenuous than the teams reviewed so far. The Sooners dropped four of their last five and six of their last eight overall. They didn’t take full advantage of all their Quad 1 opportunities while cleaning up against Quads 2-4. Oklahoma appears in most projections according to Bracket Matrix, but their losing record in conference play and lack of wins outside the Big 12 are reasons to keep them out. Is a home win against Providence and a neutral site win against Iowa (two non-tournament teams) enough to overcome their inconsistencies within conference play? I’m not confident either way.

Florida Atlantic

Record (conference): 25-8 (15-5)
Quad 1 record: 2-2
Quad 1+2 record: 10-5
NET ranking: 39
Quad 3/4 losses: 3
NET OOC SOS: 51

FAU may be the committee’s most difficult case. While they measure comparably to most teams in terms of Quad 1/2 victories, NET ranking, and non-conference schedule, other glaring holes have to give the committee pause. No other team in the field has wins over Arizona and Texas A&M with losses to Bryant and Florida Gulf Coast. The Owls also played in a far inferior league compared to these other bubble teams. Most of their Quad 2 victories came in conference play. Their cache from their tournament run last year made them an early lock that feels far less certain now that they weren’t able to win the AAC Tournament.

St. John’s

Record (conference): 20-12 (12-10)
Quad 1 record: 4-10
Quad 1+2 record: 10-12
NET ranking: 32
Quad 3/4 losses: 1
NET OOC SOS: 173

The Red Storm are right on the cut line in most projections. If they miss the field, it will undoubtedly be because of a bid stealer. You can expect to see them in the last four in or first four out. There just isn’t anything particularly outstanding about this profile. St. John’s lost eight of 10 games at one point in Big East play before a late-season charge. That surge at the end of the season was fueled by their schedule, which saw them play conference doormats Georgetown and DePaul twice. Their best wins this season are at home against Creighton and on the road against Villanova. Their best non-conference win is probably against another non-tournament team in Utah at a neutral site. I don’t see it with St. John’s. If the Red Storm are in, so are the Spartans.

Virginia

Record (conference): 23-10 (14-8)
Quad 1 record: 2-7
Quad 1+2 record: 10-10
NET ranking: 54
Quad 3/4 Losses: 0
NET OOC SOS: 157

Nobody has had an impact on the bubble this season quite like Virginia. Tony Bennett’s decision not to foul up three against NC State allowed the Wolfpack to tie the game at the buzzer in the ACC semifinals. Virginia went on to lose in overtime, and NC State may have stolen their bid the following day. Virginia’s analytical profile should keep them out. Their two Quad 1 wins this year came against Florida in the second game of the season and against Clemson by a point. Their NET ranking is uncompetitive because they’ve gotten drilled several times this season, losing five games by 20+ points. It’s also worth noting that Virginia ranks 68th in KenPom. Nobody outside of Charlottesville wants to see Virginia in the field. Their poor analytical profile combined with a weak ACC should keep them out.

Indiana State

Record (conference): 28-6 (19-4)
Quad 1 record: 1-4
Quad 1+2 record: 5-5
NET ranking: 29
Quad 3/4 losses: 1
NET OOC SOS: 187

America’s darling is likely on the outside looking in after Saturday’s development. There’s almost no precedent for an at-large team with a single Quad 1 victory. Even with that blemish, Indiana State’s metrics are strong enough to warrant consideration. They likely cost themselves a chance with losses to Illinois State and Southern Illinois in mid-February. They are worth mentioning here relative to Michigan State because the Spartans do own a head-to-head victory against the Sycamores. The committee would be breaking a lot of trends by putting the Sycamores in the dance. While it’s possible, it’s hard to see a scenario where Indiana State is in and Michigan State basketball is not.

Bottom line

This is truly an eye of the beholder situation. The bubble has never been smaller, and the committee can use any number of different arguments to support or tear apart certain teams. There will undoubtedly be some quality teams left out of the field. Because of this, I don’t think it’s fair to say “a team with metric x has never been left out”. We’ve never seen this type of bid stealing. We can expect to see some firsts on Sunday evening related to at-large bids.

That’s where I’m concerned for Michigan State basketball. While its NET rating (along with other rating formulas) suggests they are an absolute, the field is too competitive to cite historical trends. It all comes down to the people in the room. If they value quad one and road/neutral site wins, that’s bad news for MSU. If they cite the NET (which they invented), then that’s probably enough to get the Spartans a reservation in Dayton early next week.

In any case, it’s hard to be sympathetic to a Big Ten team with 14 losses. The Spartans played two-thirds of their schedule against Quad 1/2 teams and finished with a losing record in those games. The Spartans were also comfortably in the field as late as mid-February. They’ve played themselves into this situation by losing five of their last eight games.

So, what I’m not going to do on Sunday is complain. One way or the other, Michigan State’s fate is deserved and justified. The Spartans didn’t win enough to have an argument one way or the other. Even as late as Friday, MSU had a chance to play their way into this field. They didn’t do it. Sure, it’s a tough ask to beat Purdue on a neutral floor. But Mississippi State locked up their bid by beating Tennessee. Texas A&M made a compelling case by beating Kentucky. New Mexico erased all doubt by winning the Mountain West Tournament.

Michigan State basketball made this bed. Now, it has to lie in it. You don’t get to 25 straight NCAA Tournaments without catching a couple of breaks. They caught breaks in 2011 and 2021. They’ll need another one on Sunday to get the streak to 26.