Michigan State basketball: Dream scenario for NCAA Tournament draw

Michigan State basketball will likely head to its 26th straight NCAA Tournament and here’s the dream draw for the Spartans.

The Big Ten Tournament run for Michigan State basketball came to an end on Friday after their 67-62 loss to Purdue. However, the Spartans shouldn’t have anything to worry about when it comes to the NCAA Tournament.

Most in the country agree that MSU’s win over Minnesota on Thursday is enough to earn them their 26th straight NCAA Tournament appearance.

So let’s assume the Spartans do make the tournament, what would the dream draw look like?

Best seed for MSU

It’s more than likely that Michigan State will get either a nine or 10-seed on Selection Sunday. Both seeds are very high and not what we were hoping for at the start of the season, so does it really matter which one MSU gets?

When looking at who their first opponent could be, no it really doesn’t matter. Playing a 7 or an 8-seed in the first round really is no different. But the second round opponent is where this matters. Would you rather have a potential second round matchup against a No. 1 or 2 seed?

I think the obvious answer here is the two seed. So it may sound strange, but the best seed for Michigan State to get would actually be a 10-seed, that way they can avoid playing a one seed in the second round.

Best first round opponent

So let’s assume Michigan State gets the 10-seed, so who would be the best option as their first round opponent? According to Bracket Matrix, the four most likely seven seeds are Nevada, Washington State, Gonzaga, and Dayton. To be honest, none of these teams scare me all that much, so it probably doesn’t matter who MSU gets matched up with. But I think I would prefer Gonzaga.

Gonzaga just hasn’t impressed me frankly at all this season. They played a decent non-conference schedule, but lost to most of the good teams they played. They also play in the worst conference of these four teams, so they haven’t faced many quality opponents the last few months. Gonzaga was also on the outside looking in for most of the season while the other teams were always comfortably in.

I also think the selection committee would probably pair MSU with Gonzaga as well. They say they don’t care about storylines with their matchups, but it’d be hard to not pair these two storied programs together. So out of these teams, I think the best draw is Gonzaga, even though none really scare me.

Region and top two seeds

The third thing that would give Michigan State basketball a dream draw would be getting into the Midwest Region. This would be huge for no other reason than where they could play during the tournament. If MSU happened to make it to the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, those two games would take place in Detroit. Those games then would well feel just like a home game for Michigan State basketball.

Now let’s look at the top two seeds. Obviously who the 2-seed is in MSU’s region is extremely important because that’s who their second round opponent would be. Looking again at Bracket Matrix, I think the best options are Marquette and Arizona. I haven’t been sold on Marquette all year and think MSU could beat them again like last year. I also think the Spartans would fair extremely well in a rematch against Arizona as well.

Lastly is the 1-seed. There are some potential one seeds I would want no part of in MSU’s region. That would be UConn and Houston. I think Michigan State matches up horribly with both and Houston is my pick to win it all, so I hope they stay out of their region. That leaves Michigan State with North Carolina or Purdue. Again, I think the answer is obvious in that we would want Purdue as the one see in MSU’s region. Sure they’ve beat MSU twice, but the Spartans were close to winning both. They are also an opponent the Spartans would be very familiar with. The Boilermakers also historically struggle in the NCAA Tournament, so maybe they’d lose before Michigan State would even face them.

I’m just happy Michigan State is (likely) in the Big Dance

So there you have it. My dream NCAA tournament draw would have Michigan State earn a 10-seed in the Midwest region, get matched up in the first round with Gonzaga and have Marquette/Arizona and Purdue as the top two seeds in the region. Is it likely for all of this to happen? Absolutely not. But at the end of the day, I’m just happy MSU’s playing in the NCAA tournament, something we all weren’t convinced of a few days ago.