Michigan State basketball: Game preview, prediction vs. Minnesota

Michigan State basketball will try and keep its Big Ten record perfect when they welcome Minnesota to the Breslin Center on Tuesday. The Spartans won the first matchup between these teams in December, 90-72.

Let’s get an update on both teams before analyzing the point spread and offering a prediction.

Scouting Minnesota

What was shaping up to be a disastrous season for Minnesota has unexpectedly taken a turn. Through Jan. 13, the Gophers had just one victory all season over a team ranked in the KenPom top 100. They were 0-6 in Big Ten play, with four losses coming by double figures.

But on Jan. 16, as 10-point underdogs, Dawson Garcia’s desperation heave from half court went in, and the Gophers defeated Michigan in overtime. Minnesota followed that victory with impressive wins over Iowa and Oregon.

The Gophers are playing their best basketball of the season, and that’s largely because of the contributions from Garcia. During this win streak, he’s averaging 26 points and eight rebounds per game. Ben Johnson has leaned on Garcia a lot this season, but he’s been far more efficient during this time, shooting almost 40 percent from three and over 50 percent inside the arc.

Elsewhere, the Gophers have really stepped up their efforts defensively. In regulation, they have not allowed more than 71 points since their Jan. 13 loss to Maryland. They’ve made the most of their efforts defensively by taking care of the basketball, turning it over just 27 times across the three-game win streak.

While their recent surge is impressive, the rest of their body of work can’t be ignored. Minnesota’s greatest challenges earlier this season came on the offensive end. They play extremely slow, particularly on offense. They are a dreadful shooting team and rely heavily on points in the paint. And at 64.5%, they are the worst free throw shooting team in the Big Ten.

In conference play, though, it’s been the defense that has let them down. Only Iowa has a worse adjusted defensive efficiency rating than Minnesota in Big Ten play. The Gophers aren’t generating turnovers, they are fouling too frequently, and their 67.2% assist rate on made field goals indicates they are allowing too many easy looks.

When you’re playing Minnesota, it’s all about stopping Garcia. In his fifth season, he’s a crafty, yet skilled veteran that can beat you inside and out. But he is a high-volume shooter. His 20 points won’t mean as much if it takes him 15 shot attempts to get there. If Garcia is out of rhythm, the onerous falls to three-point specialist Mike Mitchell and point guard Lu’Cye Patterson.

Michigan State update

In East Lansing, it feels like old times again. Michigan State basketball is 8-0 in the Big Ten and haven’t lost a game since Nov. 26. They are up to No. 7 in the AP Poll after winning 12 in a row.

The Spartans as a team are greater than the sum of their parts. They’ve become particularly annoying to play against because they won’t beat themselves. They crash the boards, they share the basketball, and they make their free throws.

They’ve become a particularly difficult opponent to prepare for because of their depth. Tom Izzo’s rotation consists of 10 guys, with varying minutes and roles on a game-to-game basis. To emphasize how balanced Michigan State’s attack has been, look at their KenPom profile. The Spartans don’t have a player categorized as a “go to guy” or “major contributor”. That means that nobody on this MSU roster is being utilized on more than 24 percent of offensive possessions. Arizona is the only other team in the KenPom top 20 with that characteristic.

The December victory over Minnesota was an offensive masterpiece for MSU. Michigan State was able to live in transition, and the result generated 90 points and 1.41 points per possession. The Spartans had an assist on 25 of their 29 made field goals, and crushed Minnesota on the glass, 39-27.

That game serves as a reminder of what the ceiling could look like for this Michigan State offense. Because in that game, Michigan State basketball knocked down 11 of 22 three-pointers. After another disheartening shooting effort on Saturday against Rutgers, Michigan State is down to 28.7% from deep on the season. That’s good for 347th in America.

At this point, that’s the obvious missing piece for this group of Spartans. To win the Big Ten, and become a serious contender in March, Michigan State is going to have to shoot better than that.

The good news is that there is reason to believe they will. Michigan State’s four best 3-point shooters from last season are all woefully underperforming this season.

The numbers would indicate that there is some positive shooting progression heading Michigan State’s way. While the players highlighted above may not get back to the levels they shot the ball at last year, there’s no question that they are better shooters than what they’ve shown so far.

Prediction

Michigan State basketball is a 12.5-point favorite over Minnesota on Tuesday with a total of 139.5. You’re not going to get rich laying big numbers like this in college basketball, especially in conference play.

With Minnesota’s recent results, and Michigan State’s west coast trip on deck, I can’t get behind the Spartans from a spread perspective. We know Ben Johnson is going to try and slow the tempo in this game, and Michigan State’s defense is a tough matchup for an inconsistent Minnesota offense. Both factors point to a lower scoring game, which typically favors the underdog.

Instead, I like Michigan State to go over their team total of 76.5 in this game. At home, the Spartans haven’t scored fewer than 80 points all season. Even though Minnesota has won a couple of games, their defensive metrics within league play are hard to ignore. The Gophers are horrendous on the glass, and they don’t force turnovers, which should generate some extra possessions for the Spartans. And if Michigan State basketball can finally get some shooting improvement, the Spartans should get to 80 once again.

Prediction: Michigan State 81, Minnesota 68