Michigan State basketball: Game preview, prediction vs. UCLA

Michigan State basketball will try to salvage one game from their West Coast road trip after falling at USC on Saturday. On Tuesday, the Spartans will take a trip across town to take on UCLA.

Let’s recap the season for both teams and offer a prediction for the game on Tuesday at Pauley Pavilion.

Scouting UCLA

The Bruins are hot. After losing four straight Big Ten games to start the new year, it looked like things could go sideways for Mick Cronin. Since then, though, UCLA has rattled off five straight wins. At 16-6, with several marquee wins, UCLA easily projects as an NCAA Tournament team. And while their losing streak earlier in the year most likely doomed their Big Ten title hopes, they are still in play for a top-four seed in the conference tournament due to a favorable February schedule.

As is customary with Cronin teams, the Bruins play stifling defense. Per KenPom, they are a top-20 team in defensive efficiency. UCLA has been elite at generating turnovers, ranking fifth in college basketball with 24 percent of possessions resulting in a takeaway.

They play at an extremely slow pace (17th in the Big Ten), which puts even more pressure on opposing offenses to value possessions. That strategy can backfire, especially if UCLA’s offense isn’t scoring. The Bruins allowed fewer than a point per possession in losses this year against Nebraska and New Mexico.

The thing that jumps out immediately about UCLA’s defense is the number of three-point attempts they are allowing. Almost 45 percent of all field goal attempts have been from three. But opponents are hitting fewer than 33 percent. UCLA is content to play the percentages and make bad shooters beat them.

UCLA has also been a mess when it comes to fouling. In Big Ten play, the Bruins rank 17th in free throw attempt percentage. They have four players in their rotation who are committing over four fouls per 40 minutes of play.

Offensively, this is not a great team. Although in conference play, UCLA has been a top-five offense from an efficiency standpoint. They like to slow the game down even more on offense, averaging 19 seconds per possession. The Bruins, like Michigan State, are a balanced team. They don’t have that classic “go-to” scorer. They play as many as 10 in their rotation, with three players averaging at least 10 points per game.

When the Bruins are going well, some combination of Tyler Bilodeau, Eric Dailey, Sebastian Mack, and Dylan Andrews are carrying them. Bilodeau and Dailey are the best shooters of that group, at nearly 40 percent from three on the season. Andrews and Mack have split time at point guard, but the former is the better facilitator. Mack will come off the bench to provide a spark.

But perhaps UCLA’s recent surge can be attributed to the increased role that Aday Mara has played at the center position. The 7-foot-3 sophomore from Spain has averaged 13 points and 6.5 rebounds over his past four games. In all four games, he played at least 20 minutes after playing no more than 18 in any of UCLA’s first 18 games.

Michigan State update

Michigan State basketball suffered their first loss in conference play on Saturday against USC. Fortunately, they won’t have much time to dwell on it with the quick turnaround. Even though Michigan State started 9-0 in the Big Ten, they’ll need to beat the Bruins to maintain their one-game lead and avoid going 0-2 on this West Coast road trip.

On Saturday, the Spartans made the mistakes they haven’t been making most of this season. They went just 11-of-19 from the free throw line. They were essentially even with USC in rebounding. They committed 13 turnovers. And they got off to a terrible start, trailing 22-7 at the 13-minute mark in the first half.

All afternoon, they struggled to recover from that. The Spartans were unable to get stops when they needed them. They missed open shots on possessions when they needed scores. And with just 0.94 points per possession, this was one of their least efficient offensive efforts of the season.

On Tuesday, it won’t get any easier against this UCLA defense. The Bruins are going to slow this game down and prevent Michigan State from getting into transition. The half-court execution will have to be much cleaner than it was over the weekend.

That starts with making some shots. As a team, Michigan State basketball is down to 29 percent from three as a team. I continue to harp on it, but I maintain that Jaden Akins (29 percent), Xavier Booker (20 percent), and Frankie Fidler (19 percent) are much better shooters than the current numbers would indicate.

The scouting report says that UCLA will dare them to shoot. It goes against the way the Spartans have preferred to play offense. But if Izzo trusts his shooters, he has to encourage them to let it fly. Against this UCLA defense, there will be possessions where the three from a low-percentage shooter is the best look you’ll get.

This also becomes a big game for Michigan State’s frontcourt. After USC’s undersized lineup gave them problems on Saturday, they’ll see the opposite end of the height spectrum from UCLA’s Aday Mara. As mentioned, he’s turned into a beast over UCLA’s last four games. He’s part of the scouting report now. And Michigan State’s big men have to remember that he’s a terrible free throw shooter, so fouls aren’t bad. And even though he’s been an eraser at the rim, he’s still a young player and can get into foul trouble himself.

Prediction

UCLA is a 2.5-point home favorite on Tuesday. Michigan State basketball will be an underdog for just the fourth time this season. To make matters worse, even as a top-10 team, they find themselves in the dreaded “unranked favorite vs. a ranked team” spot that is often telling of the outcome.

There’s no way around it. This is a massive game for Michigan State, both for their 1-seed and Big Ten Championship hopes. They likely won’t be able to win the league outright without a win at Pauley Pavilion on Tuesday.

Michigan State responded beautifully to a “backs against the wall” moment earlier this season against North Carolina in Maui.

They’ll need a similar effort against UCLA. But as we’ve learned since the Bruins are going to be a stiffer test than the Tar Heels. UCLA is going to slow the pace and make Michigan State operate in the half-court. They’ll also make MSU prove that they can beat them with threes. MSU has shooters, but they’ve got to find some confidence. Most importantly, MSU has to value possessions and take care of the ball.

But the difference between Michigan State basketball and the opponents UCLA has beaten during their win streak is defense. When you broaden that view to the entire season, Maryland is really the only comparable defensive team that UCLA has played. In that game, UCLA scored 61 points, turned the ball over 21 times, and lost by 18.

This should be an ugly game to watch. Don’t expect a ton of points. I expect Michigan State to put the clamps on an already limited UCLA offense. And if they can hit some shots, get to the free throw line, and limit turnovers, I think they can score enough to steal a win.

In the recent past, this type of game, in this spot, was almost always a loss. This team has changed the way we feel about this program. That feeling continues again late Tuesday night.

Prediction:Michigan State 66, UCLA 65