Michigan State basketball: Game preview, prediction vs. USC

Tom Izzo hopes to make history on Saturday by tying Bob Knight with 353 all-time Big Ten victories. To do so, his Spartans will need to win their 14th game in a row. Michigan State basketball will take its streak to the West Coast to take on USC on Saturday.

Let’s learn more about the Trojans and get an update on the Spartans before discussing the gambling line.

Scouting USC

Under first-year coach Eric Musselman, the Trojans are developing into a team you don’t want to see on your schedule. Perhaps that should be expected, as this is a brand-new team from a season ago. The coaching change fueled massive roster turnover, with nine players acquired via the transfer portal.

After falling as low as 110th in KenPom in early December, the Trojans are back up to 66th. During that time, they’ve notched impressive road wins against Illinois and Nebraska. But after an extremely weak showing in the non-conference, USC may have left themselves with too much work to do to be an NCAA Tournament team.

The strength of this USC team is on the offensive end of the floor. They like to push the tempo, with hopes of generating easy looks in transition. In conference play, they’ve been successful at doing that, shooting almost 56 percent inside the 3-point arc. No team in the Big Ten gets more of their points in the paint than USC. This up-tempo style has led to some chaos, as USC ranks 118th in America in turnover percentage.

The Trojans are a curious shooting team. As a group, they are making about 35 percent of their attempts, which is above average. But they don’t shoot many, ranking 310th in America in 3-point attempt percentage.

Defensively, it’s been a struggle. USC has defended the three well, but they’ve been pitiful at defending the rim, allowing 58 percent of attempts to go in during league play. Opponents are making quick work against this Trojan defense, needing only 16.7 seconds on average per possession.

When you look at the roster, the struggles defending the rim begin to make sense. While the Trojans possess outstanding length at guard and wing, they don’t have a dependable Center. USC’s starting front court goes 6-foot-7 and 6-foot-8. Because of that, they’ve essentially given up on going after offensive rebounds, ranking 276th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. The size mismatch on the interior has also prevented USC from defending without fouling, resulting in a lot of free throws for their opponents.

The name to know for USC is Desmond Claude. The Xavier transfer stands 6-foot-6… and plays point guard. He’s a ball-dominant guard who does his damage at the rim and at the free throw line. He does not and cannot shoot the three. For USC to win this game, Claude has to be an efficient scorer and, more importantly, take care of the basketball. He’s committed at least three turnovers in eight straight games.

While Claude is the primary scorer, he’ll be looking for help from sharp shooting senior Chibuzo Agbo and improving freshman Wesley Yates. Over his past seven games, Yates is averaging over 18 points per game. Down low, get familiar with Saint Thomas. The senior transfer from Northern Colorado leads the team in minutes and is the Trojans’ best rebounder.

Michigan State update

For the first time in the Tom Izzo era, Michigan State basketball went undefeated in December and January. But even after winning 13 games in a row, there’s a hesitancy from the college basketball media to accept the Spartans as a true Final Four contender.

Critics have pointed to their strength of schedule. When you disprove that argument by pointing out that good teams have lost to those same opponents, they point to injuries that hampered Penn State and Rutgers. When you counter that with a margin of victory argument, they blame the officiating against Illinois that took Kasparas Jakucionis out of the game. It’s exhausting.

What if multiple things could be true? Michigan State is very good. They’ve also benefited from a weak conference schedule to date. But there is something to be said for beating the teams you’re supposed to (cough, Illinois).

The Spartans have been able to do that because fundamentally, they are sound. They rebound the ball at both ends of the floor. They play a deep rotation that features multiple guys that can beat you. They make their free throws. And they’re well-coached.

Tuesday’s win against Minnesota was a great example of what makes the Spartans so tough. Offensively, they played one of their worst games in weeks as they struggled to get the transition game going against Minnesota’s slogging pace. They countered that challenge by turning in a defensive effort that left Tom Izzo gushing after the game. Minnesota scored just 16 points in the first half and finished the game with 0.84 points per possession.

Nine players played at least 15 minutes in that game. Of those nine, nobody scored fewer than six points, with their leading scorer only tallying 12. MSU destroyed Minnesota on the glass, 40-22, on their way to an easy, yet ho-hum 22-point victory.

In this matchup against USC, the obvious advantage is on the interior. Jaxon Kohler should be fed in the post until he burps. The rest of Michigan State’s frontcourt should present a challenge to this USC offense that likes to attack the rim.

But this game will be won and lost with guard play. Jeremy Fears, Tre Holloman, and Jase Richardson are smaller guards, and they haven’t seen a group of lengthy defenders like they will on Saturday. It will be interesting to see how the offense operates against this unorthodox USC lineup. Defensively, does USC have the ball handling to get into their own offense against this stingy Spartan defense? Styles make fights, and this one should be fascinating to watch.

Prediction

To my surprise, Michigan State basketball opened as a 5.5-point road favorite in Los Angeles. That’s right in line with the KenPom projection of five. With the way these home underdogs have been taxed, I figured we’d see something closer to 3.5. Of course, we could still get there, but that opener is interesting.

It’s a pretty strong signal that Michigan State will win this game. USC has been a home underdog of five or more points twice this season. They failed to cover in either game, losing by eight to Oregon and by 11 against Michigan.

Still, my gut says this is a great spot for USC. Coming off a loss to UCLA, this is a game they have to win to make the climb back to the NCAA Tournament bubble. Even though USC’s defense has been a mess this season, I think their length in the backcourt could give MSU some problems in the half-court. And despite their lack of size down low, the Trojans are an excellent defensive rebounding team, which is key against the Spartans.

The whistle is going to be an important factor in this game. A tightly called game favors the Spartans because of their depth and foul shooting. USC ranks 279th in bench minutes, and Michigan State basketball is the third-best free throw shooting team in the country.

To me, that is the difference in the game. Not only is MSU an elite free throw shooting team, but they’re quite crafty when it comes to drawing fouls. If Claude, Yates, or Thomas have to sit, the Spartans can expose this USC bench.

And until proven otherwise, I’m not picking against this Michigan State basketball team against an inferior opponent.

Prediction: Michigan State 79, USC 71