Michigan State basketball: How Ole Miss got here and how it stop here

Not long from now, Michigan State basketball will tip off against Ole Miss in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. This comes after a 71-63 victory over New Mexico on Sunday evening.

Let’s dive into the upcoming opponent, the Ole Miss Rebels.

How they got here

Ole Miss is in their first NCAA Tournament since the 2019 big dance, in which they lost 95-72 to Oklahoma. That was during the Kermit Davis era, which concluded near the end of the 2022-23 season. The following offseason, Mississippi hired Chris Beard. Although the hire was controversial due to Beard’s departure from the University of Texas, it has significantly improved the Rebels’ basketball program.

Last year, Ole Miss went 20-12 in Beard’s first season at the helm. They peaked at 22nd in the AP Poll, but stumbled in conference play and missed the NCAA Tournament. However, with 20 wins for the first time in five years, it was evident the Rebels were on the rise.

Ole Miss started the 2024-25 campaign out hot. They raced to a 6-0 start before taking an 80-78 loss to Purdue. They followed that up by winning five more in a row, and were ranked as high as #16 in the AP Poll, before losing their last non-conference game to Memphis. Regardless, 11-2 was a successful non-conference slate for the Rebels. They went 3-2 against Quad 1 in that stretch with wins over Colorado State and BYU on neutral courts, and a road win at Louisville.

In conference play, the Rebels keep their momentum rolling. They won their first four games of SEC action, including a road win over No. 4 Alabama in a game in which they were 12-point underdogs. From there, they cooled off a bit. They lost four of their next five and had to regroup. By the end of the year Beard and Co. picked up big wins over Kentucky and Tennessee, finishing conference play with a 10-8 record, placing sixth in the SEC.

After a quarterfinal loss in the SEC tournament to Auburn, all eyes were on the big dance. The committee granted the Rebels a 6-seed, and they were scheduled to play the winner of North Carolina and San Diego State. The Tar Heels won that matchup, setting up an SEC vs. ACC matchup in the Round of 64.

For the first 33 minutes of the contest, Ole Miss dominated. They sported a 63-50 lead with 6:56 to play, and looked as though they would cruise into the second round. Right around that point, Carolina tried to make a desperate push to come back. They cut the lead all the way down to two points, but a Sean Pedulla three with 52 seconds left proved to be the dagger.

The second round opponent for the Rebs was the Cyclones from Iowa State. The 3-seed from the Big 12 was missing their second leading scorer in Keshon Gilbert, and Ole Miss took advantage. As 5.5-point underdogs, the Rebels suffocated the Cyclones. They took a 40-29 lead into halftime and never gave Iowa State even the slightest hope in the second half.

So, for Ole Miss, it is onto the Sweet 16, and it’s onto Michigan State basketball.

Who and what got them here

In terms of personnel, Ole Miss runs fairly deep. Throughout the season, they ran a rotation that had nine players getting over 10 minutes per game. In their two tournament games, that has been trimmed to eight.

Ole Miss has had a very balanced scoring attack all year. They have six guys who average over 10 points per game. Their leader, though, is guard Sean Pedulla. He averaged 15.2 points, along with 3.7 assists, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.9 steals per game. He averages 33 minutes a game, but that number has increased in each of the two tournament contests. Pedulla is a good shooter, holding a 39 percent clip from three, and 82.1% from the stripe. In the two tournament wins, Sean was doing a little bit of everything, totalling 40 points, 13 assists, eight rebounds, and six steals.

Chris Beard utilizes a rare “four-guard” starting lineup, with Malik Dia as the only traditional big at 6-foot-9. Dia averages near 11 points per night and grabs almost six rebounds. Dia is complemented by 6-foot-8 forward Jaemyn Brakefield, who comes off the bench but averages 23.1 minutes. Brakefield puts up similar numbers to Dia 11.1/4.3/1.8, but is a little more efficient, at 51.2% from the field, as opposed to 47.1%.

The three other individuals who make a significant impact are guards Matthew Murrell, Jaylen Murray, and Dre Davis. All three average somewhere between 10 and 11 points. Murray poses the biggest offensive threat of the three, dishing out 3.5 assists a night and shooting 37.1% from three. Murrell and Davis are more active on the glass, grabbing 3.5 and 4.8 boards, respectively.

Moving onto team stats, there are some interesting numbers. According to KenPom, Ole Miss ranks 24th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency. They play a middle-of-the-road tempo at 131st, and got to experience the gauntlet SEC schedule with their sixth-ranked strength of schedule.

As a team, they shoot 34.8% from three, ranking a middling 132nd on sports reference. They get to the line a good bit with 21.4 free throws attempted per game, but again shoot an average 73.6%.

The strength of this team all season long has been their turnover differential. They are elite at taking care of the ball, ranking third in the nation in their turnover rate with only nine per game. On defense, they are almost just as good at forcing turnovers, with a 32nd-ranked turnover rate defense.

A weakness for Ole Miss this season has been rebounding. They have pretty dismal numbers with the 313th ranked rebound offensive rebound rate, and 226th ranked defensive rebound rate according to Torvik. The Rebels also allow their opponent to get to the free throw line quite frequently, at 317th in the country.

How they stop here

Well, if it were up to Vegas, Michigan State basketball moves on. The Spartans are currently 3.5-point favorites on DraftKings.

However, all Michigan State fans know this one will not be easy. Tom Izzo and Co. have to be prepared for a 40-minute battle if they want to move onto the Elite Eight.

Looking statistically, there are a couple of advantages that will be music to the ears of all Spartans. The first? Ole Miss’ difficulty on the glass. Tom Izzo has built this program on his famous “Defend. Rebound. Run.” mentality. The reality of the situation is that the Rebels really struggle to rebound. According to the same metric that ranked Ole Miss’ rebounding at 313/226, the Spartans come in at 19/7. This should be a massive advantage for MSU, and you know that Izzo and his staff emphasized that. Look for big rebound numbers out of guys like Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper, and Coen Carr. Even in limited minutes, it would be a boost for Michigan State basketball if Szymon Zapala could match his five-rebound effort from last Sunday.

Secondly, MSU needs to prioritize getting to the free throw line. Their season-long free throw ranks 43rd in the country. If they can shoot them well like they have all year, 77.5%, it should be a path for easy points on Friday. Look for Jase Richardson, Tre Holloman, and explosive senior Jaden Akins to make a point out of going strong to the rim. Granted, it would be reasonable to assume Jeremy Fears will get to the line as well, as he is quickly becoming known as a “foul merchant” to some.

Finally, win the 3-point line. When the threes are there, take them, and make them. MSU’s 3-point struggles have been well documented this season. A measly 31 percent on the year held this team back at times, but they’ve been shooting it a bit better of late, at 35.9% in the month of March. Ole Miss allows a large number of 3-point attempts each game, 24.4, so taking advantage of these opportunities will be vital. On defense, don’t let them get hot. MSU has played great 3-point defense all season long, and the Rebels have been very average shooters. However, in their last two games, Ole Miss has shot it at a whopping 48.7% rate. Preventing a number anywhere near this will be key in slowing their offensive attack down.

So, those are three ways that Michigan State basketball can get this thing done. This team has been special all year, and if they can capitalize on those three aspects, chances are they’ll be in the Spartans’ first Elite Eight since 2019.

Speaking of 2019, we all know how that ended. Chris Beard’s Texas Tech team broke the hearts of Izzo and MSU in a Final Four contest that ended 61-51. Let’s see Izzo go out and get revenge for ending that special 2019 season, by continuing this special 2025 season.

Go Green.