Michigan State basketball: Preview and a prediction vs. Iowa

Michigan State basketball will be playing host to a high-scoring Iowa team on Tuesday night. Here’s what you need to know.

Michigan State basketball will look to keep the positive momentum going on Tuesday night at home against Iowa. It’s the first and only meeting of the year between these two teams.

Let’s get to know Iowa a little better before offering up a prediction for the game.

Scouting Iowa

At 15-11, the Hawkeyes find themselves on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament picture. Iowa has been a middling team for most of the season with lots of wins over bad teams and lots of losses to good ones. Like the rest of the conference, Iowa has been much better at home than they have on the road. In fact, the Hawkeyes have just two true road victories this season.

Iowa’s team profile is right in line for what we’ve come to expect with Fran McCaffery teams. The Hawkeyes play fast, score in bunches, and don’t guard anyone. Iowa teams in the recent past have had higher ceilings with players like Luka Garza and Keegan Murray. The 2024 Hawkeyes don’t have that type of threat.

Nonetheless, this is still a very talented offensive team. Iowa has a top-15 efficiency rating on offense and rarely turns the ball over. They are outstanding at getting to the rim and converting at the free throw line. Payton Sandfort and Owen Freeman are both shooting over 60 percent in the paint this season. Iowa plays at the fastest tempo in the Big Ten.

Iowa’s offensive profile is even more impressive when you consider the fact that they aren’t a good 3-point shooting team. They are converting at just 33.6% on the season while generating just 23 percent of their points from the 3-point line. Payton Sandfort is Iowa’s only real shooting threat at 37 percent on the year.

Iowa’s downfall this season has been its defense. After games this weekend, Iowa now owns the worst defensive unit in the Big Ten, per KenPom. While their season-long metrics rank 173rd in America, their conference-only rating of 114.6 is in line with the worst defensive teams in college basketball.

There are almost no redeeming qualities with this Iowa defense. The Hawkeyes rank outside the top 200 nationally in a number of defensive categories. Big Ten teams are shooting almost 55 percent in the paint. Opponents are grabbing offensive rebounds on 34 percent of their missed shots. Perhaps most baffling is Iowa’s inability to keep teams off the free throw line.

Despite having good size throughout the roster, Iowa is a bad rebounding team. They don’t turn their opponents over. Minnesota and Penn State each eclipsed 85 points against Iowa. Even Maryland – the second-worst offense in the conference– scored 78 against the Hawkeyes a week ago.

Michigan State update

Under Tom Izzo, the Spartans have been known to play some of their best basketball at the end of the season. This season is shaping up to be the next chapter in that book. The Spartans have won eight of their last 10 games, and three in a row. While nobody is going to wax poetically about their wins against Penn State and Michigan last week, it was encouraging to see MSU win on the road.

Now, the Spartans return home for an extended period of time. After Tuesday’s game against Iowa, Michigan State plays just once until their showdown with Purdue on March 2. This could be exactly the type of break Michigan State basketball needs as Tyson Walker continues to nurse a nagging groin injury.

An added layer to this schedule break is the opponent. Michigan State is projected to be double-digit favorites in both games at home against Iowa and Ohio State. This could give Tom Izzo an opportunity to get an extended look at some younger players that will need to grow late this season for MSU to make a tournament run. Coen Carr is coming off his most impactful game as a Spartan Saturday at Michigan where he scored eight points and threw down two massive dunks. Xavier Booker played sparingly against Penn State and Michigan. But if MSU is able to build a lead in either game, he’s going to play more.

Despite their struggles early in the season, Michigan State is all the way up to 15th in KenPom. A bubble team as little as 10 days ago, the Spartans find themselves as high as a six-seed in some bracket projections. It appears as if the NCAA Tournament streak will be extended at least one more season.

For Michigan State, this game against Iowa will be a test of their focus. They’re undoubtedly feeling good about themselves after a strong week and a clean sweep over rival Michigan. But Iowa presents a unique challenge with their offense. They’re going to play fast, run a lot of action, and continue to put pressure on MSU’s attention to detail.

We’ve seen this MSU defense fall asleep at times this year. When that happens, their offense isn’t consistent enough to survive a lackluster night defensively. Games against Nebraska, Northwestern, and Wisconsin are good examples.

Prediction

Michigan State is a 10-point favorite in East Lansing with a total set at 154. With Big Ten home teams winning over 80 percent of their games this season, that spread isn’t surprising.

This should be a good matchup for Michigan State basketball. Iowa is limited athletically, with some serious depth concerns at guard. Tony Perkins is a seasoned Big Ten guard, but behind him, Iowa is relying on a lot of young players. That’s not usually a recipe for success on the road.

Most notably, Michigan State has feasted on poor shooting teams this season – particularly at home. The Spartans are allowing a whopping 43 percent of their total shot attempts to come from three. That’s well above the national average of 37 percent. In other words, MSU is daring bad shooting teams to beat them. Penn State, Michigan, Maryland, and Rutgers boast similar shooting profiles to this Iowa team. Combined, those teams shot 26 percent from three at the Breslin Center in losing efforts.

On paper, this should be a runaway victory for Michigan State. The one concern I would have is the start. If MSU comes out sleepy, Iowa is just good enough to really hurt them with their offense. It’s also a game where even with a big lead, the Spartans can’t feel comfortable. Iowa is going to push the tempo all night, and their offensive prowess makes the Hawkeyes hard to put away. We all remember what happened last year in Iowa City.

For Iowa to win though, it probably takes a heroic effort from Payton Sandfort. But even if he hits six or seven threes, he’s going to need help from someone else. On the road, I just don’t see who else that might be for Iowa. MSU survives a slow start defensively to pull away in a high-scoring contest.

Prediction: Michigan State 88, Iowa 76