Michigan State basketball: Preview, final score prediction vs. Michigan

Tuesday’s Michigan vs. Michigan State basketball game isn’t exactly highly-anticipated, but it’s a must-win for the Spartans.

An in-state rivalry as old as time is renewed on Tuesday in East Lansing between Michigan and Michigan State basketball. There was a time when this was one of the most anticipated matchups of the Big Ten season. This year, it’s a different story.

Michigan State is middling in the middle of the Big Ten while Michigan sits in last place. Nonetheless, it’s still a rivalry game that should raise the intensity.

Here’s what you need to know about both teams and what to expect with the outcome.

Scouting Michigan

After heavy roster turnover, expectations for Michigan basketball this season were low. The Wolverines lost Hunter Dickinson, Kobe Bufkin, and Jett Howard from a team that didn’t even make the NCAA Tournament. As expected, it’s been a tough season. After upsetting St. John’s on Nov. 13 to improve to 3-0, the Wolverines have gone just 4-13 with losses to Long Beach State, McNeese State, and Penn State.

Michigan’s biggest problem this year has been its defense. The Wolverines rank outside the top 150 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metrics. You can pick any defensive metric. The Wolverines grade out terribly. They are particularly bad at generating turnovers. Opponents have also found success on the offensive glass and the 3-point line. Teams are shooting 36 percent from three against the Wolverines – good for 311th in the nation. The last three opponents Michigan has faced have all scored at least 88 points.

Offensively, it’s been a better story. Michigan is shooting over 37 percent from three while also ranking in the top 60 in effective field goal percentage. However, the splits indicate that those metrics might be inflated by Michigan’s play in the non-conference. During Big Ten play, the Wolverines rank near the bottom of the conference in most offensive categories. That includes three-point shooting (9th) and effective field goal percentage (9th).

Michigan’s offensive struggles are undoubtedly complicated by the situation involving Dug McDaniel. The sophomore point guard is serving a unique suspension that only allows him to play in home games. With Tuesday’s game at the Breslin Center, Michigan will be without his services. McDaniel is pretty clearly Michigan’s best player and biggest threat offensively. His presence is vital for Juwan Howard’s group because he is their only true point guard.

Without him, expect to see Jaelin Llewyellyn and Nimari Burnett share the responsibility. Seniors Olivier Nkamhoua and Terrance Williams are going to shoulder a lot of the load for Michigan offensively without McDaniel. Both are big, bodied wing players that can score inside and out.

The absence of McDaniel will highlight the issues Michigan has with their roster depth. The Wolverines give just 18.5% of their minutes to their bench players – good for the third fewest in the country.

Michigan State basketball update

Tom Izzo will be looking for win No. 700 on his 69th birthday. He’ll be looking to do it against the school that he has always been outspoken about hating.

The Spartans are coming off a revealing loss at Wisconsin where they were soundly beaten by the Badgers for the second time this season. In that game, MSU’s defense and rebounding were particularly disappointing. Wisconsin collected 10 more rebounds than MSU while going 20-for-32 in the paint.

It will be interesting to see if that loss to Wisconsin prompts any sort of change within the rotations in the front court. Jaxon Kohler played the most minutes he had all season. Xavier Booker scored five points in the six minutes he played.

Up until now, Mady Sissoko and Carson Cooper have gotten most of the minutes at center. For Michigan State to get where they want to go, they’ll need more out of that position. At home as a big favorite, this could be the spot for some experimentation.

The Spartans also need to get Tyson Walker going again. After a torrid stretch, he’s been held to 15 points or fewer in three of his last four games. Walker has shot the ball well from the outside but is just 13-for-38 inside the three-point arc during those four games. Without McDaniel, this should be a good matchup for him to take advantage of.

Prediction

Michigan State basketball is an 11.5-point favorite with a total of 145.5. That spread is indicative of the type of game this should be. At home, against a reeling Michigan team without their best player, it’s hard to see how Michigan wins this game.

The Spartans have a significant advantage in the backcourt. While Michigan does have a size advantage, their rebounding numbers are nothing to be afraid of. The Wolverines haven’t been able to stop anyone recently, and at home, Michigan State’s offense is much more effective.

The Izzone should also play a factor here. It’s been a pretty lackluster home schedule up until this point. No matter their record, the students will show up loud for the Michigan game. This is a Michigan team that features a lot of transfers making their debut in this rivalry. They may not fully understand what they’re walking into. Throw in Tom Izzo’s quest for win No. 700 on his 69th birthday, and this one has all the makings of a feel-good night for MSU.

Final score: Michigan State 82, Michigan 66