Michigan State basketball: Preview, prediction for Michigan rematch

Michigan and Michigan State basketball will meet again on Saturday night as the Spartans look for the season sweep.

Spartans. Wolverines. Saturday night on FOX. Normally, that gets the blood pumping. This year, one team has much more to play for than the other. Nonetheless, Juwan Howard and the Wolverines would love to play spoiler and put a dent in the Michigan State basketball NCAA Tournament resume.

Michigan State won the first matchup this season 81-62 in East Lansing on Jan. 30. Both of these teams are pretty similar to who they were two and a half weeks ago. But here’s an update on both with a prediction.

Michigan update

Since leaving East Lansing in late January, Michigan has lost three of four. They were impressive in defeating Wisconsin at home on Feb. 7. But outside of that, things have gone from horrendous to, well, horrendous for the Wolverines.

In consecutive road games against Nebraska and Illinois, Michigan was outscored 176-127. Neither are particularly easy places to play, but not being able to stay within 20 points of either team is telling. Michigan continues to struggle on the defensive end. Per KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings, the Wolverines now rank 180th in America and dead last in the Big Ten.

They don’t generate turnovers and continue to allow teams to get to the rim. Michigan has some size with Tarris Reed, Terrance Williams, and Olivier Nkamhoua, but they are just an average defensive rebounding team. Even with that size on the wing and in the post, Michigan doesn’t block shots and is allowing opponents to shoot almost 53 percent from two in conference play.

Michigan’s prospects will be improved with the addition of starting point guard Dug McDaniel. He is ineligible to play in road games due to a suspension. But this game is in Ann Arbor, so he’ll be good to go. McDaniel is key because he is Michigan’s only true point guard. He’s a capable scorer and decent shooter that can carry Michigan through tough offensive stretches.

While Michigan is a better team with McDaniel in the lineup, his presence hasn’t exactly been a saving grace. Yes, Michigan’s only two wins since Dec. 16 have come at home with him in the lineup. But the Wolverines have also dropped home games to McNeese State, Minnesota, Iowa, and Rutgers. Three of those four losses came by double digits.

For Michigan to win this game, they’re going to have to take care of the basketball, knock down some shots, and win on the offensive glass. The Wolverines are turning the ball over on almost 18% of their offensive possessions. When you don’t force any on defense, you’re immediately at a severe possessions disadvantage with those metrics. It’s hard to score without the basketball.

Michigan ranks 11th in the conference in both two and three-point shooting percentage. Opponents are shooting over 36 percent against them from three. That’s a little high. They could be due for some positive shooting regression in their favor.

The other path to victory for Michigan involves offensive rebounds. While they are poor at defensive rebounding, Michigan does rank inside the top-100 nationally in offensive rebounding. We know Michigan State can be taken advantage of on the offensive glass. That has to be a point of emphasis for Juwan Howard.

Michigan State basketball update

For Michigan State, things are going quite well. MSU secured a much-needed win at home against Illinois last weekend before easily dusting Penn State earlier this week. The past two games have shown what this group is capable of. They’ve been able to compliment their stingy defense with an explosive offense that’s been incredibly balanced.

The most impressive part about Michigan State’s recent run is that they haven’t been overly reliant on Tyson Walker. Part of that is Walker playing through some injuries. But the majority of it has been Malik Hall and A.J. Hoggard stepping up.

Hall, in particular, has been phenomenal. He scored a career-high 29 points against Penn State after putting up 22 against Illinois. He’s been aggressive in the paint, not afraid of contact or the free throw line. His production is a breath of fresh air for a team that gets next to nothing offensively out of the rest of their forwards.

For Hoggard, it’s been a similar story with his aggression. But his impact isn’t as easy to see on the stat sheet. Hoggard has been in command of the offense, pushing the tempo when necessary and getting others involved. Most importantly, he’s taken care of the basketball. Hoggard has just one turnover in his past two games while dishing out ten assists. Against Illinois, he was also 12-for-13 from the free throw line. For a player that struggles with his jump shot, it’s imperative that Hoggard cashes in on those opportunities.

After a dreadful start to the season shooting the three, Michigan State is all the way up to 41 percent in conference play. I remain skeptical that MSU can continue to rip threes at that clip. But it’s hard to say they rely on it. MSU gets just 29 percent of its points from downtown. The Spartans are making the threes they take without living from there. It’s the perfect place to live.

Michigan State basketball also now leads the Big Ten in steal percentage, coming up with one on almost six percent of possessions. That’s something to monitor against a Michigan team that coughs it up regularly. Furthermore, I was surprised to see that the Spartans now play at the slowest pace in the conference. Some of that is undoubtedly weighed towards the opponents they’ve played. But that’s another thing to keep an eye on. The Spartans want to limit possessions to make them more valuable. That’s bad news for Michigan that has shown a reluctance to treat them with care this season.

Prediction

Michigan State opened as a 6.5-point road favorite at Crisler Center. That’s a lot of points for a road favorite in this year’s version of the Big Ten. It’s also an indication of just how bad this Michigan team is. The Wolverines have lost 12-of-14 overall and have now slipped to last place in the Big Ten in the KenPom efficiency ratings.

With that said, this feels like a “best effort” night for the Wolverines. They know they won’t have a postseason after the Big Ten Tournament. At this point in the season, players are looking for games to treat as their postseason. At home, on a Saturday night, with McDaniel in the lineup feels like one of those spots. It’s easy to forget now, but Michigan actually led at halftime in the first matchup.

While Michigan State looked great on the road against Penn State, I wouldn’t put much stock into that. Penn State is bad and presents almost no home court advantage. MSU’s only other road win this season came at Maryland in a game they tried to give away. Michigan handled a tough Wisconsin team at home earlier this month. They’re plenty capable of pulling this upset.

To me, the biggest mismatch in this game is on the sidelines. Michigan has been notoriously terrible in the second half this season. In many ways, I see this game playing out very similar to the game on Jan. 30. Michigan should start strong with the crowd behind them, but as the game wears on, their warts are exposed.

Nobody on Michigan State’s roster has won a game at Crisler Center. For the seniors on this team, this is their last shot. You can bet they’ve been reminded of that all week.

This one won’t get out of hand like the first game. It should be tight into the second half. But in the closing minutes, I’m guessing Michigan’s turnover woes show up and Michigan State’s experience at guard makes the difference.

Prediction: Michigan State 72, Michigan 67