Michigan State basketball: Preview, prediction for Oregon rematch

Michigan State basketball makes its debut in the 2025 Big Ten Tournament on Friday with a quarterfinal matchup versus Oregon. The Spartans won the first, and only meeting between this season.

Here’s a look at the matchup, followed by a prediction.

The matchup

The first game between these teams will be remembered as a tale of two halves. Michigan State ended up winning the game by 12. But it trailed by 14 at halftime, allowing the Ducks to score 50 points in the first 20 minutes.

That game will forever be remembered for Jase Richardson’s heroics. Filling in for an ill Jeremy Fears, the freshman phenom blitzed the Ducks for 29 points, five rebounds, and three 3-pointers. But Michigan State won that game the way they won so many afterwards: with defense and rebounding.

Michigan State basketball enjoyed a +15 advantage on the glass, and held the Ducks to 24 second-half points. We didn’t know it at the time, but the Spartans were giving us a glimpse of the second-half merchants they would eventually become. On Friday, rebounding will be a point of emphasis for Dana Altman. It’s nearly impossible to beat Michigan State when you lose the rebound battle like they did in round one.

This is a good, but not great Oregon offense. They’re pretty reliant on the 3-point shot. That’s important against Michigan State because the Spartans guard the three at an elite rate. If the Ducks aren’t hitting from deep, and MSU is grabbing the misses, it could be a long afternoon for the Ducks.

Jackson Shelstad is the player to watch for Oregon. He torched MSU in the first half of the first game. But once Jaden Akins was switched over to him in the second half, he was completely out of rhythm. I’d expect Akins to draw that defensive assignment from the start this time around.

For Michigan State, this becomes an interesting game for their NCAA Tournament preparations. While they are fairly locked into their seed position, this Oregon squad should provide an excellent test in a tournament setting.

Altman is widely known as one of the best tournament coaches for his adjustments and game planning. I suspect the Spartans will see a couple different defensive wrinkles, including a zone defense.

That feels like the last big hurdle for Michigan State to clear. Everybody that’s thrown a zone at them this season has given them fits. While they’ve figured it out at times, it hasn’t been preceded by long periods of ineffective offense.

Prediction

On the neutral court in Indianapolis, Michigan State is a 5.5-point favorite. You always wonder what the motivation will be for the top overall seed in these major conference tournaments. I’m sure there’s a part of Tom Izzo that would like to take the weekend off, rest up, and prepare for next week. But I’m not sure this MSU team has an off switch.

The Spartans are rolling right now. And, thanks to Tre Holloman, they’ve developed a certain type of angry swagger. Even though they won this league by three whole games, I get the impression they still feel like they have more to prove.

Regardless, this is a matchup that favors Michigan State basketball.

Oregon is at a disadvantage on the boards, and they don’t have a consistent rebounder outside of Nate Bittle.

Oregon has to hit some threes to win this game, and that’s difficult to do against MSU. The Ducks have also had trouble defending on the interior this year, which is a problem against the Spartans.

The Ducks don’t have great depth, ranking outside the top 250 in bench minutes. Having played yesterday, that puts them at an even further disadvantage against Michigan State.

I could see the Spartans starting slow. Oregon in the first half is worth a look here, because Altman will have a good game plan. Oregon’s zone can bog down this Michigan State offense for stretches. Because of that, I’d also look to bet the under at 143.5.

But I don’t think Oregon has enough scorers to beat this Michigan State defense for the full 40 minutes. MSU has too many bodies, and too big of an advantage on the glass. Give me the Spartans, once again, thanks to a big second half.

Prediction: Michigan State 72, Oregon 64