Michigan State basketball: Preview with a prediction vs. No. 23 Wisconsin

Michigan State basketball opens Big Ten play on Tuesday night with a battle against No. 23 Wisconsin. Will the Spartans win?

Tuesday’s game at the Breslin Center will mark yet another opportunity for Michigan State basketball to pick up a ranked victory. Michigan State is 4-0 against teams that are currently unranked and 0-3 against No. 1 Arizona, No. 18 James Madison, and No. 22 Duke. The newly-ranked Wisconsin Badgers come into town on Tuesday and the fact it is a conference game only adds another layer of pressure. 

Wisconsin is coming off an 11-point victory against top-10 Marquette. Their game against the Spartans will mark only the second time the Badgers will face a true road atmosphere. The only road game they have played was a loss to Providence. 

Meet the Badgers

Wisconsin is coached by Greg Gard. He is in his ninth season in charge of Wisconsin’s program. He is 170-95 in his career. 

In this version of Wisconsin, fans can expect guard AJ Storr to take many of their shots. He leads Wisconsin so far this year at 13.3 points per game but shoots just below 40 percent from the field and is just 6-for-28 when beyond the arc. The Spartans must avoid putting him on the line though, as he is above 90 percent for the year so far. 

Their biggest overall threat is forward Steven Crowl. He is second in scoring at 11.5 points at a very efficient 63 percent with a good jump shot. He can also cause problems for Carson Cooper and Mady Sissoko with just under eight rebounds per game. 

Chucky Hepburn gets the largest share of the minutes for Wisconsin. He scores 10.8 points while dishing out about three assists per game. Hepburn can cause problems when MSU has the ball as well, averaging 1.6 steals per game. 

Tyler Wahl is the last Wisconsin player that averages double digits, at 10.9 points. He is due to grab about 5.5 rebounds per game and a steal per game as well. 

Overall matchup

This game could be a classic, low-scoring, Big Ten slugfest. According to KenPom, Wisconsin has the 19th-ranked offense in the country, but Michigan State’s defense sits at seventh. 

Offense has also been a struggle for Michigan State basketball this year, as KenPom puts it at 64th. Wisconsin’s defense is not as strong as its opponent, with it currently being ranked 24th in the country. 

Neither team has shot 3-pointers well. MSU’s struggles have been well-documented at 26.9%, 333rd in the nation. Wisconsin still only shoots 30.1%, which is still a lowly 276th. The Spartans will also have to avoid a free throw battle, as Wisconsin’s free throw percentage is almost 10 percentage points higher than MSU’s this year. 

The advantage for Michigan State is in the paint. MSU has relied on two-point baskets more than most teams to get their points. Wisconsin is 340th in block percentage, showing they have poor rim protection. That is something Tom Izzo and Co. can exploit. 

Prediction

ESPN currently says that Michigan State is a 4.5-point favorite in this game with a 60.6% chance of victory. KenPom is not quite as optimistic, favoring MSU with a projected score of 67-64 and a 59 percent chance of winning. 

Both of those projections seem fair. I think Wisconsin wins this game on a neutral floor or in Madison. Home-court advantage and a lot of points in the paint make the difference in MSU’s first ranked win of the season. 

Final score: Michigan State 62, Wisconsin 57