Michigan State basketball: Scouting report and a prediction vs. Wisconsin

Michigan State basketball will look to cap an improbable five-game stretch with a win at home against Wisconsin. It won’t be easy, but for the first time in almost two weeks, the Spartans will have the Breslin Center crowd behind them.

From an analytical standpoint, Wisconsin will be the best team the Spartans have faced all year.

Let’s get to know these Badgers better before dissecting the matchup and offering a prediction.

Scouting Wisconsin

When you think of Wisconsin basketball, you typically think of a slow, offensively challenged group that wins with an ugly brand of hoops. Not this year, though. Wisconsin features one of the best offenses in the country, scoring with remarkable efficiency. The Badgers feature a top-10 offense, anchored by the best free throw shooting team in America.

Wisconsin leads the Big Ten in 3-point shooting percentage, effective field goal percentage, and overall offensive efficiency. And unlike most high-scoring teams in today’s game, the Badgers don’t push the tempo to do it. This is still a very patient offense that’s willing to work defenses for however long it takes to get the best shot.

Last spring, Greg Gard was left out in the cold when A.J. Storr and Chucky Hepburn left the program over NIL concerns. With few options, Gard turned to the transfer portal, where he convinced John Tonje to come to Madison. It’s been the most successful pairing of the off-season cycle.

Tonje enters Sunday’s game as the fifth-most efficient player in college basketball. His shooting splits (38 percent from three, 57 percent from two, 91 percent from the free throw line) are remarkable. At 6-foot-5, he’s able to do a little bit of everything, averaging 19.5 points and five rebounds per game. Tonje can catch fire at any moment, but he becomes lethal when he’s able to get to the free throw line. He’s attempted at least 10 free throws six different times this season, all Wisconsin victories. That also makes him extremely important at the end of games if Wisconsin has a lead.

While Tonje is the featured star for Gard, he has plenty of help. John Blackwell has been a Robin to Tonje’s Batman for most of this season. The sophomore guard is not as effective as a shooter, but he’s an exceptional rebounder from the guard position.

Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter anchor the interior for Wisconsin. Standing at 7-foot and 6-foot-11, respectively, both players present difficult matchups because of their shooting capability. Both are shooting the three at better than 36 percent, and neither is afraid to let it fly. In their only game against Michigan State basketball last season, Winter and Crowl combined to hit three of four from deep.

But if Wisconsin can’t make a deep run in the NCAA tournament, it will likely be because of their defense. It’s still a top 40 unit nationally, but the Badgers have been able to mask some of their issues by outscoring teams. We saw this on display last weekend against Oregon. Wisconsin went cold down the stretch, and they weren’t able to string together enough stops to hold off the Ducks.

The Badgers don’t force turnovers. They are just OK at defending the rim, and they are vulnerable against a team that can knock down 3-pointers. This is a roster that has good size, but limited athleticism. Crowl and Winter are big, lumbering forwards that are slow to recover, as evidenced by Wisconsin’s almost non-existent block percentage.

One name to watch on Sunday is Max Klesmit. The senior guard has been battling an injury since early January and played just five minutes in Tuesday’s win against Washington. Even though he is in the midst of a bad offensive season, the Badgers don’t have a lot of backcourt depth. If Klesmit is limited or unavailable, his minutes will likely fall to true freshman Jack Janicki, who has only played sparingly this season.

Michigan State update

Tre Holloman’s half-court heave that beat Maryland on Wednesday made Michigan State basketball the story of the sport. While the shot was incredible, the bigger story is the four-game winning streak MSU has put together.

Wins at Illinois, Michigan, and Maryland, with a home win against Purdue, have vaulted the Spartans up to a 2-seed in most NCAA tournament projections. It has also put MSU in the driver’s seat as far as a Big Ten title is concerned.

Now, it’s time to get greedy.

Even though nobody could have anticipated a 5-0 record during this stretch, a loss at home to Wisconsin after getting the first four would feel deflating. Not to mention, Michigan keeps finding ways to win, staying tied atop the Big Ten standings with Michigan State basketball.

The identity of this MSU team is slowly shifting from one built off transition offense and alley-oops to one that drowns you defensively. The Spartans always play tough defense under Tom Izzo, but this year’s team takes a certain pride in it that we haven’t seen in quite some time.

The Spartans are up to sixth in defensive efficiency. That would be their highest ranking, according to KenPom, since 2012. MSU’s 97.4 rating in conference is far and away the best. And the gap between them and the second best is greater than the gap that separates teams ranked 2-7.

Michigan State basketball has also continued to feast on the glass. The Spartans are second in the Big Ten in both offensive and defensive rebounding, with almost 40 per game. It’s no coincidence that their best work has come during this four-game win streak, where Michigan State holds a 143-115 rebounding advantage over their opponents.

The Achilles heel for the Spartans continues to be outside shooting. While MSU is over 32 percent from three in Big Ten play, it’s still the final piece that is preventing this offense from taking off. But the Spartans have been able to survive these shooting woes because they’ve been better at defending the three than they have at making them.

That will be a fascinating matchup to watch on Sunday. Wisconsin, the conference’s best 3-point shooting team, against Michigan State’s top-ranked 3-point defense. We know Michigan State basketball is used to winning games with little help from beyond the arc. Wisconsin is not. And while I’ve been predicting some positive regression for Michigan State’s opponents for a few games now, it hasn’t come. But if there was ever a time for it, Wisconsin is the team that can do it. The Badgers hit 12 out of 30 attempts in a road win at Purdue on Feb. 15.

Prediction

Michigan State is a 4.5-point favorite in East Lansing on Sunday afternoon. Vegas, along with most analytical rankings, sees these teams as near equals.

Michigan State’s home crowd provided a sizable advantage in victories against Oregon and Purdue. With the momentum the Spartans have created, I’d expect more of the same on Sunday given the magnitude of this game.

Wisconsin has been solid on the road. But outside of their win at Mackey Arena, the Badgers haven’t beaten a top-50 opponent away from home.

As far as the matchup goes, once again, I think it favors Michigan State. The Spartans have options when it comes to defending Tonje. Jaden Akins will draw the assignment early, but I’m sure we’ll see Coen Carr take a shift as well. Right now, if you’re Tom Izzo, you feel good about those two guarding anyone not named Cooper Flagg or Johni Broome.

The best-case scenario for Wisconsin is an active, but limited Max Klesmit. That means a lot of minutes for Kamari McGee, John Blackwell, and Tonje. That’s bad news against the Spartans. They’ll rotate guards all afternoon and wear them down. Michigan State has held three of their last four opponents without a field goal for the final four minutes of the game.

Defensively, I’m getting Purdue vibes when it comes to the Badgers. Their metrics are shaky, and likely inflated by domination against the bottom of the league. Facing an MSU offense with a confident Jase Richardson and Tre Holloman could expose some warts.

And while Michigan State basketball may not be able to hold the Wisconsin sharpshooters to 28 percent for the game, they will find life more difficult on the road against MSU’s defense. I’m not at all confident that Wisconsin can win a game where they don’t shoot it well.

But most of all, I can’t bet against this Michigan State team right now. They have that look about them. And being able to cap this murderous stretch with an exclamation point is a tremendous motivator. At home, Michigan State gets the job done. And once again, it’s with defense.

Prediction: Michigan State 72, Wisconsin 66