Michigan State basketball: Scouting report, prediction vs. Iowa

At the moment, for Michigan State basketball fans, life is something that simply exists in between games. Thankfully, MSU is back in action on Thursday against Iowa. With a win, Michigan State can guarantee at least a share of the Big Ten title. It’s an incredible opportunity, because on paper, Iowa is a much different team than Michigan State has gotten used to playing over the last two weeks.

Let’s get to know the Hawkeyes before analyzing the matchup and offering a prediction.

Scouting Iowa

There has been some speculation within the internet circles that this will be coach Fran McCaffery’s final year at Iowa. I really hope that’s not the case and he has since shot that down. Because with an Iowa team coached by McCaffery, you know exactly what you’re going to get.

The Hawkeyes play a beautiful brand of offense. And not a lick of defense.

This year’s team is no different. Iowa comes into Thursday’s game with a top-35 offensive unit, and a defense that ranks outside the top 165 from an efficiency standpoint.

In fairness to Iowa, their defensive metrics took a nosedive after losing Owen Freeman for the season on Jan. 27. Freeman’s absence has left the Hawkeyes without any size or true rim protection. The Hawkeyes rank 345th in America in two-point percentage allowed. In conference play, opponents are shooting over 58 percent in the paint, and over 39 percent from three. Iowa’s 119.0 defensive efficiency rating in Big Ten play is the worst that the league has seen since 2016. WOOF. It’s bad.

Offensively, it’s a completely different team. Iowa is a top-25 team nationally in effective field goal percentage, three-point percentage, and turnover percentage. They play fast, space the floor, and play a positionless brand of basketball to try and create mismatches in the open floor.

The player to focus on in the scouting report is Payton Sandfort. The 6-foot-8 senior is a three-level scorer who averages over 16 points per game. He’s a volume shooter, not afraid to throw up a couple heat checks if he gets going. But he’s also wildly streaky. After scoring 25 and 27 points in consecutive games against Oregon and Washington, respectively, he scored just 16 points total in his last two games.

Josh Dix will be the other guy to watch. The junior wing has good size at 6-foot-6 and has really evolved into a feared 3-point shooter. He, along with Sandfort, are going to be on the floor a ton in this game. Both will need to be efficient scorers for Iowa to pull the upset.

But it’s hard to overstate how much Iowa misses Freeman. The Hawkeyes haven’t been able to replicate the production they were getting from their leading scorer and rebounder. Since his departure, Iowa is just 2-6, with wins over cellar-dwelling Washington and middling Rutgers. It’s also worth noting that without Freeman, against KenPom top-20 teams, Iowa is 0-3, with all three losses coming by at least nine points.

Michigan State update

What’s not to love about Michigan State basketball right now? The Spartans have won five Quad 1 games in a row. They are on their way to winning at least a share of the Big Ten title. And thanks to their recent run, the worst-case scenario for MSU is still probably a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The Spartans are up to ninth in KenPom, with a defensive efficiency rating that has cracked the top five. Michigan State’s identity has transformed into a ferocious, grinding group that swallows opponents in the second half. Over the past five games, Michigan State is +58 in the second half, allowing less than 29 points per game.

This is likely the point in the monologue where MSU detractors are screaming about 3-point shooting variance. While the numbers show a statistical outlier of sorts in MSU’s favor (26.6% in conference play), it’s disingenuous to conclude that the Spartans are getting lucky. What those numbers don’t show are the types of shots opponents are getting. Or when. Or how.

The MSU defense generates some of those misses on its own. Their depth allows the Spartans to rotate fresh defenders all game, making opponents work harder for their shots. MSU has also defended deep into the shot clock, forcing low percentage attempts. And their elite rebounding takes away second chance opportunities, which are widely known to produce the best looks from three.

Right now, that’s what separates this Michigan State basketball team from the rest of the Big Ten. After Sunday’s win against Wisconsin, Michigan State pushed its rebounding advantage to +39 against their last five opponents. It’s a massive advantage because MSU is generating second chance opportunities, while also allowing very few.

Jaxon Kohler has deservedly garnered all the attention with his rebounding. But it’s becoming infectious with the rest of the roster. Jaden Akins had eight rebounds of his own against the Badgers. Jase Richardson matched that total against Maryland.

Tom Izzo built Michigan State basketball on rebounding. It’s no coincidence that the victories have followed this resurgence from the Spartans on the glass.

Prediction

Michigan State is going to be a 7-point favorite in Iowa City on Thursday. The Spartans haven’t been favored like this on the road all season. These are two teams going in the opposite direction.

Yet, this is a disastrous situational spot for the Spartans. Fresh off their five-game gauntlet, with Michigan in the crosshairs on Sunday, this game against Iowa is why the term “trap game” was invented.

If you’re Tom Izzo, the concerning factor in this game is the Iowa offense. That unit, by itself, is capable of playing up to the competition. It would not require any sort of ridiculous chain of events for Iowa to score 85 points in this game. They may give up 90, but that side of the floor is what makes this Iowa team unique relative to their place in the standings.

Because of that, I think Iowa in the first half is an interesting angle if you’re looking to bet on this game. For as good as the Spartans have been over the past few weeks, they haven’t played a crisp first half in quite some time. And this is a spot where Michigan State could come out a little flat.

But once again, I think Michigan State basketball prevails in the second half. The discrepancy in the rebounding department can’t be ignored. Iowa was not a great rebounding team with Freeman. Without him, they are dreadful.

This should be a great opportunity for Jeremy Fears to bounce back. Iowa wants to push the tempo, and we have enough history between these coaches to know that Izzo will oblige. That’s where Jeremy Fears is at his best.

Michigan State, for the sixth time in a row, uses a big second half to pull away from Iowa and claim an outright Big Ten Championship.

Prediction: Michigan State 82, Iowa 73