Michigan State basketball: Scouting report, prediction vs. Maryland

Michigan State basketball returns from the West Coast to take on Maryland at the Breslin Center on Saturday. Here’s a look at the two teams, along with a game prediction.

Scouting Maryland

Maryland joined the Big Ten in 2015. This version of the Terrapins is on pace to be the worst team they’ve had during that time. At 8-11, Maryland ranks outside the top 100 in KenPom. They are 1-7 in league play, with their only win coming at home against the 18th place team in the league, Penn State.

After Kevin Willard left for the Villanova job at the conclusion of last season, the Terps were forced to start over. New coach Buzz Williams is enduring all of the first year growing pains that come with a roster that was patched together via the portal.

Many of Maryland’s main contributors are on their third team in four years. And while there are examples of that coming together smoothly, this could be a cautionary tale of what can go wrong. Of course, it doesn’t help that the gaps within this roster are being filled by freshmen.

Maryland is a dreadful shooting team. From three, from two, it doesn’t matter. Their effective field goal percentage currently ranks 295th in the nation. Part of the problem is that they get almost nothing easy in the paint. Only 40.5% of their scoring comes from inside the arc. That’s good for 348th in Division I.

Defensively, it’s a similar story. Maryland is allowing their opponents to shoot over 36 percent from three this season. The don’t force turnovers, and they have almost no defensive presence in the paint.

A lot of Maryland’s issues can be attributed to the fact that they have almost no size on this roster. Their front court only stands 6-foot-7 and 6-foot-8, respectively. And the Terps don’t have any size advantages on the wings to make up for their disadvantage in the front court.

Things have gotten even more difficult for Maryland since the injury to their best player, Pharrel Payne. The 6-foot-9 senior was averaging 17.5 points per game before his injury. He hasn’t played in over a month but has not been ruled out for the season. It feels very unlikely that he goes on Saturday, but with no updates provided on his progress, it’s hard to know for certain.

But we do expect senior guard David Coit to be a full go this weekend. He’s a classic flamethrower, although a streaky one. He’s scored 30+ points four times this season. His nine 3-pointers, and 43 points against Penn State are a season high in the Big Ten. He’ll likely need a similar performance against the Spartans on Saturday if Maryland is going to pull the upset.

Michigan State update

Michigan State finished off a West Coast sweep on Tuesday with a strong final 10 minutes at Oregon. The box score won’t tell the story though, because that was a game Michigan State trailed with about 12 minutes to go. That’s not insignificant, given that Oregon was without their two best players.

Nonetheless, it was a win for Tom Izzo, and he’s been around long enough to know that you’ll take road victories however they come.

After allowing a total of 115 points in their two games out west, Michigan State basketball now owns the most efficient defensive unit in the nation, according to KenPom. The biggest key to that has been rebounding. The Spartans are the best team in college basketball at preventing offensive rebounds. Their length throughout the roster allows them to challenge almost every shot attempt. And by not allowing second chances, the Spartans are able to limit possessions for their opponents.

But this team will only go as far as their offense can carry them. MSU ranks outside the top 50 in offensive efficiency. While there’s still a lot of basketball to play, it’s worth mentioning that nearly every national champion over the last 25 years has possessed at least a top 25 offensive and defensive unit.

MSU can help itself in this regard by taking better care of the ball. After only turning it over five times against Washington, MSU got back to some bad habits against Oregon, coughing it up 12 times. Point guard Jeremy Fears has just four turnovers in his last four games. But he needs some help from the rest of this roster.

Elsewhere, it really comes down to whether or not some of MSU’s shooters can hit shots. Fears, Coen Carr, Trey Fort, and Jordan Scott are all shooting 30 percent or worse from three this season. And while nobody recognizes any of those players as dead-eye shooters, they get open looks within MSU’s offense. The Spartans don’t need them to shoot at a Jaxon Kohler level. They just need a bit more than they’re getting now.

Speaking of Kohler, the West Coast road trip was a down one for him. He missed all seven of his 3-point attempts and scored just nine points across the two games. With Maryland’s size issues well documented, this shapes up as a good bounce back spot for Kohler.

Prediction

Michigan State projects to be a 20-point favorite at home this weekend. That type of spread is almost unheard of in Big Ten play. But it speaks to how bad the bottom of the league is this year.

Maryland did give Michigan all they could handle for a half. But that was back in December, with Payne in the lineup. Since the calendar turned to 2026, the Terps have lost to Indiana by 18, USC by 17, and Illinois by 19.

I’d guess the margin of victory for Michigan State basketball is somewhere in that range as well. MSU should own the glass as usual. And without Payne, I am not sure how Maryland finds consistent offense. And if Coit’s shots aren’t falling, Maryland might not even score 50.

I’ve got no interest in laying this big of a number with MSU, even in a good spot at home. Their offensive inconsistency makes it hard to create the margin needed to cover this number. But I’d look at a Maryland team total under. The Terps aren’t going to be able to get anything on the offensive glass here. And we know they can’t shoot worth a lick. That’s a bad combination.

Final: Maryland 55, Michigan State 75