Michigan State basketball: Scouting report, prediction vs. Minnesota

Michigan State basketball will face Minnesota for a third time this season with an NCAA Tournament berth on the line.

The quest for a 26th consecutive Michigan State basketball NCAA Tournament appearance continues on Thursday in the Big Ten Tournament. The Spartans will need to beat Minnesota in order to stall the bubble talk for another day. A win against Purdue on Friday would surely do it. But first MSU has to take care of business against the Gophers.

Here’s a scouting report on both teams along with a prediction.

Minnesota update

Like the Spartans, the Gophers come into the Big Ten Tournament having lost four of their last five games. While there are no bad losses in that stretch, the way they’ve been losing has been concerning. After giving up 105 points in a road loss against Illinois, Minnesota rallied from a 41-18 deficit to beat Penn State for their only victory since Feb. 22. From there, they were thoroughly outplayed at home against Indiana before losing by 24 against a beat-up Northwestern team.

Minnesota’s nosedive has been a surprising end to an otherwise promising season. Ben Johnson’s program was making national headlines for their performance against the spread, an indication of their ability to exceed expectations.

The biggest problem for Minnesota is its defense. Per KenPom, the Gophers sit outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. While they are elite at limiting 3-point attempts, opponents have found a lot of success in the paint. Minnesota ranks 12th in the Big Ten in effective field goal percentage allowed.

The defensive issues at the rim are a result of Minnesota’s lack of size. It’s a roster full of guards, wings, and stretch big men. Minnesota is also one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the Big Ten. And while they don’t allow a ton of three-point attempts, opponents are converting when they get looks.

Offensively, Minnesota wants to shoot the three. The Gophers rank second in the Big Ten in three-point attempts per field goal attempt. As Michigan State basketball saw firsthand on Feb. 6, Cam Christie is their best shooter at over 40 percent. In that game, he hit five out of his seven attempts. Juniors Mike Mitchell and Elijah Hawkins are also capable shooters.

The Gophers have had problems this season with turnovers. They commit too many and don’t generate enough. Hawkins is their only true point guard, leaving them susceptible to spotty ball handling. In two games against Michigan State this year, Minnesota is -16 in turnover margin.

Michigan State update

The sky feels like it’s falling in East Lansing for Michigan State. The Spartans are close to doing the unthinkable, missing the NCAA Tournament under Tom Izzo. While many experts still project Michigan State to make the field, a loss to Minnesota could be enough to keep them out.

Like Minnesota, it’s much more about the way Michigan State basketball is losing these games. There’s no shame in losing to Purdue at Mackey. But the other three losses have come against teams that are not expected to make the field of 68.

Michigan State’s problems have come at the offensive end of the floor. The Spartans have climbed all the way back up to 10th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings. However, they’ve plummeted all the way to 59th offensively. They aren’t making 3-pointers. They aren’t making free throws. They aren’t finishing at the rim. Anything that involves putting the ball in the basket has been a massive challenge for Michigan State over the past five games.

The Spartans’ offensive struggles are heavily tied to the struggles of Jaden Akins. The junior is having his worst shooting season of his career. Over the past six games, Akins is just 6-for-28 from 3-point range. Despite the struggles, it’s important that he keeps shooting. MSU’s half-court offense is an ugly watch at times. Their best chance often relies on efficient 3-point shooting. For this offense to get rolling again, Akins has to be a part of things with his jump shot.

Prediction

After splitting the season series, Michigan State is a 7-point favorite on the “neutral” court in Minneapolis. It feels insane to say that Michigan State should be favored by that much over anyone in the conference at this point. But even for as bad as Michigan State is playing, Minnesota might be playing worse.

The Spartans allowed Minnesota to hang around in East Lansing thanks to a dreadful night at the free throw line. They were able to straighten that out and win by double digits. MSU was also in complete control in the rematch on Feb. 6 before Tyson Walker aggravated his groin injury. The game immediately turned, and Minnesota overcame a near-double-digit deficit in the second half to win in the closing seconds.

Without that injury to Walker, we’re probably looking at this game much differently. Minnesota’s turnover issues at guard present a tremendous opportunity for Michigan State’s backcourt. The Gophers aren’t a serious threat on the glass, which is where you can expose Michigan State. Minnesota’s trouble defending the three is inviting for a group of Spartans that are due for some shots to fall.

Most of all, this is a bit of a scheduling reprieve for Michigan State. As bad as their recent losses against Iowa, Ohio State, and Indiana look, those teams all have one thing in common: Momentum. Each one of those teams is playing drastically better than they were earlier in the season.

Minnesota, on the other hand, is the opposite. The Gophers are in a tailspin. Michigan State basketball finally gets a chance at a team going in the other direction.

Prediction: Michigan State 74, Minnesota 65