Michigan State basketball: Scouting report, prediction vs. Ohio State

As hard as it is to believe, Michigan State basketball has just two home games remaining in the 2025-26 season. The penultimate game at the Breslin Center occurs this Sunday.

Jake Diebler’s Ohio State Buckeyes are in town, in search of a season-altering win.

Here, we’ll take a closer look at Ohio State before settling on a prediction in the game.

Scouting Ohio State

The Buckeyes are your classic bubble team. They’ve fluttered in and out of NCAA Tournament projections for the majority of this season. And I wouldn’t expect that to change between now and Selection Sunday.

At 17-9, and 9-6 in the Big Ten, Ohio State would most likely be in if the tournament started today. But… it doesn’t. And in addition to Sunday’s game at MSU, they finish their season with games against Iowa, Purdue, and Indiana. It’s a dazzling opportunity to play themselves into the field of 68. But unless they’re able to win two out of those four games, the Buckeyes will still find themselves right on the cut line.

But even if this Ohio State team makes the NCAA Tournament, it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to do anything memorable. They rank 36th on KenPom, with an offensive efficiency rating outside the top 20 and a defensive rating of 64th.

That favorable offensive rating is due in large part to senior guard Bruce Thornton. A real throwback type player, Thornton has spent his entire career at Ohio State. And even though he’s not the biggest or most athletic player, he’s a grinder. And he’s made himself into one of the best players in the league.

He’s improved as a shooter over his career, hitting almost 40% from three this season. But he’s most dangerous when he’s able to use his lower body strength to get into the lane and score or get to the free throw line. And he almost never comes out of the game. He’s played 91% of available minutes in Big Ten play.

Ohio State surrounds Thornton with wings and big men that do most of their damage in the paint. Their most prolific three-point shooter, John Mobley, has missed the past two games. He’s been labeled as “out indefinitely”. That’s a massive loss, because without him, Ohio State’s spacing on the offensive end becomes clunky.

Against Wisconsin, Devin Royal and Amare Bynum were able to fill the shooting void. But it’s worth noting that both players are sub 32% shooters on the season. For Ohio State to win this game Sunday, they’ll need a similar performance from those two wing men.

Ohio State’s issues have come on the defensive end of the floor. They do everything they can to take away the three. But that has left them vulnerable in the paint. Teams are shooting almost 52% inside, which ranks near 200^th nationally.

They also struggle to prevent offensive rebounds, allowing one on over 30% of opponents misses. That’s a major red flag against the Spartans. The Buckeyes have some decent size at center with seven-footer Christoph Tilly. But if he gets in foul trouble, it’s a big problem. They’ll have to go small, or play an inexperienced option in Ivan Njegovan, and risk getting mauled on the glass.

Ohio State ranks 327th nationally in bench minutes, which likely limits the physicality of defense they’re able to play. And as mentioned, that rotation is going to be even smaller without John Mobley.

Michigan State update

Michigan State basketball got a much needed, feel-good, cruise control win on Tuesday against UCLA. The Spartans shot the ball better than they had all season and really turned up the heat on defense. It’s fair to point out that UCLA looked disinterested and defeated from the jump. But MSU deserves credit for dropping the hammer.

It’s important for the Spartans to bring that same energy into Sunday. With the state of Indiana road trip on deck, and the season finale in Ann Arbor, MSU can’t afford a Minnesota type performance at this point in the season.

Most NCAA Tournament projections have moved Michigan State down to the four line. Given the state of college basketball this season, with some elite teams as projected 1-seeds, it would be ideal to avoid one of those giants as long as possible in the bracket.

The Spartans held UCLA to 59 points, the fewest they’ve allowed since their 91-48 thrashing of Maryland. In the month of January, MSU held six consecutive opponents to 66 points or fewer. That dominance helped them secure the best statistical defense in college basketball. And it’s their clearest avenue to success. That, and rebounding.

But perhaps most of all, MSU finally got off to a good start against the Bruins. The Spartans had trailed by double digits in each of their previous five games. For a team with an inconsistent offense like Michigan State, getting behind in that way only makes things more difficult.

Lost in some of the panic about MSU’s early February slide has been Coen Carr’s offense. He’s scored in double figures in seven of eight games, while shooting 41% from three over that stretch. MSU fans hope that is something that is here to stay. With the injury to Divine Ugochukwu, the Spartans desperately need a secondary scorer behind Jeremy Fears. And teams are going to let Coen Carr shoot from three. He has to make them regret that strategy.

Prediction

KenPom projects Michigan State basketball as a nine-point favorite at home on Sunday. I’d be shocked if this closes under double digits. Ohio State is coming off their best win of the season, a 17-point drubbing of Wisconsin at home. Aside from that, though, the Buckeyes are 0-5 against teams ranked in the KenPom top 30. They also have zero notable wins away from Columbus.

With that said, this is a decent spot for Ohio State. The early tip on Sunday might suppress some of the energy in the building. And this has been a dynamite home schedule for MSU fans. Some fatigue could be setting in, especially against an unranked opponent.

That’s leading me towards a play on Ohio State in the first half. This is a game that would do wonders for the Buckeyes’ tournament resume. And a veteran leader like Bruce Thornton understands that and can set the tone early. Couple that with Michigan State’s knack for slow starts, and I think Ohio State can keep this close for a half. I’d look for anything above six.

But I’m not sure they have the shooting to compete for 40 minutes. The loss of Mobley is hard to overstate. And because they don’t have a deep bench, especially in the front court, MSU can wear them down on the glass.

From there, it just depends on how much margin MSU can create down the stretch to avoid any Bruce Thornton backdoor shenanigans. I’m not willing to find out. But MSU gets the job done with a workmanlike effort.

Prediction: Ohio State 64, Michigan State 75