Michigan State basketball: Scouting report, prediction vs. Washington

Michigan State basketball embarks on its (now) annual west coast trip in conference play. Up first, the Washington Huskies in Seattle. Let’s learn a little more about Washington before we check in on MSU and offer a prediction on this weekend’s proceedings.

Scouting Washington

The Huskies are like a turkey sandwich. Just… fine. You won’t starve eating turkey sandwiches. But at some point, your taste buds will ask for more. With a KenPom rating of 50 and a 10-7 overall record, that’s kind of the feeling surrounding Washington basketball.

The Huskies have two semi-impressive wins this season. Box scores from a road win at USC and a home victory against Ohio State are what coach Danny Sprinkle has pinned on the refrigerators in the locker room.

But as things stand right now, that’s not enough to get Washington into the field of 68 come March. Seven losses, two of which (Colorado and Seattle) are going to age like milk. It’s also worth mentioning that they needed two overtimes to beat Southern (ranked 264^th in KenPom).

I used the turkey sandwich analogy because Washington doesn’t do anything extremely well. They’re exceptionally average on both offense and defense. They take care of the ball offensively but don’t force any turnovers on defense. They are a strong offensive rebounding team and a terrible defensive rebounding team. They guard the three well but shoot it terribly themselves.

In a different year, this is a team that could work its way into the bubble conversation. But it’s a bad year to be an average team in the Big Ten.

IF that is going to change, it might start by getting healthier. Guard Wesley Yates returned earlier this week after missing the previous five games with a wrist injury. Jacob Ognacevic also made his season debut against the Wolverines after suffering a foot injury in training camp.

Perhaps the healthier version of the Huskies we saw against Michigan is closer to the team Danny Sprinkle envisioned. Because even though Michigan dominated the first ten minutes of that game, the last 30 were nearly even.

Michigan State basketball fans may remember Yates from USC last season. He scored 19 against the Spartans in a win in Los Angeles. Coincidentally, USC’s other lead guard from that game, Desmond Claude, is also a Husky this season. Although, Washington will be without his services after he announced on Friday night that he was shutting it down this season due to a nagging ankle injury. That’s not an insignificant loss.

Hannes Steinbach is the other name to watch for Washington. The 6-foot-11 freshmen has scored in double figures in every game he’s played in this season. He’s a strong rebounder, and an efficient scorer in the paint. And while he’s not a great three point shooter, his ability to stretch the floor will be a challenging assignment for MSU’s big men.

Ognacevic is the wild card. The 6’8” forward was a bucket getter at Lipscomb for three seasons. He can shoot the three, score inside, and get to the free throw line. At least, in the Atlantic Sun Conference, he could. It remains to be seen if his skills translate to the Big Ten. And with this only being his second game, it’s fair to question where his conditioning is at.

Michigan State update

At 15-2, Michigan State seems well on its way to a 28th consecutive NCAA tournament appearance. But if they want to defend their Big Ten Championship, these are the types of games they have to win. They already dropped one winnable road game at Nebraska. Two might end up being the difference in the standings.

Michigan State’s offensive metrics are a growing concern. MSU’s offensive efficiency rating is down to 58th on KenPom. That is the lowest mark since 2021, when the Spartans went just 15-13 and barely made the NCAA tournament.

Their recent struggles can be blamed on turnovers. MSU coughed it up 19 times in that road loss to Nebraska. Even in their last three wins, MSU has turned it over 39 times. That’s not a formula for sustained success.

Elsewhere, the Spartans need to be more efficient in the paint. Their 53% effective field goal percentage ranks outside the top 120. That’s crucial, because MSU is not a high volume three-point shooting team. And when you factor in the second chance opportunities created through MSU’s excellent offensive rebounding, it’s imperative that MSU cashes in on their chances inside.

Lastly, MSU could really use a strong outing from Coen Carr. After a strong finish in the non-conference slate, Carr has just 34 points across the last four Big Ten games. And, yes, there’s more ways to impact that game than scoring. Carr’s defense Tuesday against Indiana was tremendous. But MSU can’t get to their goals this season without more from Carr. He’s shown flashes this season. But a strong game Saturday could be the confidence boost he needs.

Prediction

Michigan State is a 3.5-point favorite Saturday in Seattle. I’m curious to see what this crowd looks like, given the fact that the Seahawks home playoff game will be going on at the same time.

This feels like a short line after I spent the majority of this piece trashing the Huskies. Admittedly, Vegas disagreeing with my pregame read makes me incredibly nervous. Perhaps health has been the obstacle standing in the way of Washington this season.

But the best unit on the floor on Saturday, unquestionably, is Michigan State’s defense. The Spartans are all the way up to No. 2 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings. And their biggest strength (rebounding) counteracts Washington’s best attribute offensively (offensive rebounding).

Yes, the Spartan offense has issues. But this Washington defensive unit has holes. I’m not sure they have the chops to really make MSU work for their baskets. And their defensive rebounding is suspect, which should allow MSU to clean up their own misses.

Even with a healthier group of Huskies, I like Michigan State to win. Wesley Yates did not have an impact in his return against Michigan. And Ognacevic only played 16 minutes. It may take some time for him to get back to full strength.

The Huskies are relying on a sophomore point guard and a freshman forward to do their heavy lifting. MSU is going to counter with a pair of seniors and a third-year sophomore. That, and the rebounding, are the difference.

Prediction: Michigan State 70, Washington 63