Michigan State basketball: Something must change to keep tournament streak alive

Michigan State basketball is off to a horrible start and the tournament streak is in serious jeopardy. Something must change.

Michigan State basketball has not played like a tournament team so far. It is OK to say that. Tom Izzo teams should not start 4-4. This one has. 

Many originally dismissed James Madison as a fluke loss. Regardless, it is always embarrassing to lose the first game of the season to a Sun Belt team as the No. 4 team in the country. Then they lost to Duke. That’s fine, it’s Duke. Then Arizona. No biggie, they’re now the No. 1 team in the country, and MSU was in it until the end. 

Then Wisconsin ran Michigan State off its own court. Fans have already seen as many losses in the Breslin this year as all of last year. It was difficult to ignore the flaws in this team before. Doing so is impossible now. 

The resume

The upcoming games against Nebraska and No. 6 Baylor will set the tone for the rest of the season. Nebraska will be Michigan State’s first true road game all season. They just lost to Minnesota, so it is very winnable, but things will get very bleak if they fall to 4-5 overall and 0-2 against the Big Ten. 

Baylor marks the last chance for the Spartans to gain a truly high-caliber win on their non-conference resume. Putting Duke, Arizona, and Baylor on the non-conference schedule and coming out of it 0-3 and having Butler as the best win on MSU’s resume is not what Tom Izzo had in mind. 

Even then, the Big Ten looks weaker than usual this year. Purdue is the only team in the conference that people consider to be a legitimate contender, and even then the name “Fairleigh Dickinson” is always in the back of many people’s minds when they see them. There won’t be massive opportunities for Michigan State to get a massive boost to their resume for every game in the Big Ten. They only get one shot at Purdue during the regular season, and it is in West Lafayette. Even when they do, they have not proven they are fully capable of winning such games yet.  

Shooting

Michigan State is 326th in the country in 3-point shooting. They were third last year. The complete regression in that department is baffling. Sure, Joey Hauser, who shot 46.1% from three last year, left. Regardless, every single player’s 3-point shooting is worse this season, except Tre Holloman. 

Tyson Walker shot 41.5% from downtown last year. He currently is at 32.4% this year. Jaden Akins was at 42.2%. Now, that has morphed into 27.3%. A.J. Hoggard shot 32.9%; not good, but not terrible. He is now at 21.1%. 

The shooting woes are evident at the free throw line too. The Spartans are 279th in that statistic at 67.1%. In the 2022-23 campaign, they were 38th in the nation at 75.9%. Something is up. Tyson Walker has only made 60 percent of his free throws this year after making just under 80 percent last year.

Simply put, the shooting has to improve. If MSU is no threat to punish a defense from three, it becomes even more difficult to score in the paint. Even when a good look presents itself near the basket, any opponent can make them earn it at the stripe, where another woe has been. Wins and a future tournament bid will not present themselves against teams like Baylor, Purdue, or Wisconsin with that formula. 

Reason for optimism

This one is simple. Michigan State basketball has Tom Izzo. Twenty-five consecutive tournament appearances do not present themselves without overcoming adversity. 

In the COVID season, MSU reached fourth in the AP Poll early on in the season. Then they started 4-9 in Big Ten play. They were pretty much out. Then they beat No. 5 Illinois, then No. 4 Ohio State, and then No. 2 Michigan. Three top-five wins in the final seven games launched MSU into the tournament. As a result, the streak lives on today.

That was the most desperate of circumstances. Even in a somewhat weak Big Ten, there will be plenty of chances to prove themselves as a tournament team. 

Sure, the streak has to end at some point, but Tom Izzo has consistently found ways to keep it alive. The team has a few months to put it together. Tournament slots and championships are won in February and March, not November and December. 

Frankly, the bar for a spot in the tournament might be lower for MSU than a Nebraska or a Northwestern. Izzo teams have performed very well in the tournament over the years. In a situation where the Spartans are on the bubble, it is not out of the question that they would give MSU the nod for a tournament spot over a less prestigious program with a similar, or even slightly better, resume. 

Give this team time. Tom Izzo is not in the business of losing, and he does not plan on starting now.