Man, what a way to start the weekend on Saturday at high noon in East Lansing, Michigan. Duke vs. Michigan State basketball on national television. These teams have met frequently in the Champions Classic and the NCAA Tournament. But it’s rare that we see these teams tangle on campus.
With the betting line set around a pick ‘em (Michigan State is a one-point favorite), I thought it would be interesting to dissect the most likely path to a victory for either side. We’ll start with the visitors.
Duke Wins Because…
1. Their Length is Elite
When scouting the Blue Devils, the number one concern for Michigan State is how they match up physically. The Blue Devils are built like an NBA team. They don’t play anybody shorter than 6-foot-4. And yet, Patrick Ngongba is their only contributor over 6-foot-8.
That makes Duke extremely versatile from a defensive standpoint. And it’s reflected in their metrics. Currently, the Blue Devils have the best defense in the nation, according to KenPom. That’s fueled by the nation’s best effective field goal percentage defense, with opponents shooting a bone chilling 40.3%.
The other metric that stands out with the Duke defense is their average possession length. The Blue Devils are defending, on average, for 19.1 seconds per possession. That’s among the longest in the country. Meaning, Duke is defending deep into the shot clock, and still not allowing made baskets.
We’ve seen teams with athletic wings and forwards give Michigan State problems before. Just look back to their elite eight loss against Auburn. And to a lesser degree, their win against Ole Miss two days before that. This MSU team is a little better equipped to handle that than last year’s team, thanks to the additions of Trey Fort, Jordan Scott, and Cam Ward (more on him later).
But Michigan State’s most important player (Jeremy Fears Jr.) is going to be at a size disadvantage on Saturday. And this is, without question, the best defensive unit Fears will face as quarterback of this Michigan State team.
2. They Get Hot from Three
Simple game, huh? I hate the “make or miss” game analysis when it comes to basketball. But sometimes, you’ve got to call it like you see it. Duke is going to take a lot of three pointers. At the moment, 47% of their shot attempts are coming from downtown.
If they make 12-to-15, they’re going to be nearly impossible to beat. If not, then this is a game Michigan State basketball can win.
Despite the volume, Duke is not a great three-point shooting team (36%). Isaiah Evans is the name to watch. Through eight games, he’s already chucked up 62 attempts. But even with heavy volume, he’s still a career 39% shooter, and demands respect from the MSU defense.
Caleb Foster (45% this year) is performing well above his career marks as a third-year player. But he’s not nearly the volume shooter that Evans is. Duke also brings a couple options off the bench in Nikolas Khamenia and Darren Harris who will be in the game to knock down threes.
The wild card is Cameron Boozer. He’s a threat from outside, but if you’re MSU, you let him shoot out there all he wants. Because inside, he’s a beast, shooting 65% from the field compared to just 37% from deep. Speaking of Boozer, let’s talk about this guy.
3. They Have Cameron Boozer
Good segway. Cameron Boozer is a problem. It’s disrespectful to him that I’ve waited this long to mention him in depth. Because this is the guy that can single handedly win you these types of games.
Boozer is currently the number one rated player in KenPom’s analytical rankings. He’s averaging close to a double double, with 23.6 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. And as if that weren’t enough, he’s an exceptional passer for his size and position.
The scary thing for MSU is that he may just be getting started. He’s coming off his two best games from a scoring perspective, and it wasn’t against cupcakes. 35 points against Arkansas, followed by 29 against Florida. In those games, he went 18-of-26 in the paint.
Even in this young season, Boozer has shown impressive consistency with his scoring and rebounding. That matches up with the scouting report out of high school that described him as a player with a remarkably high floor.
At 6-foot-9 and 250 pounds, he’s a matchup problem for everybody in college basketball. His ability to score inside and out gives him multiple ways to beat you. And his “magnetic” hands, combined with his size, give him an advantage as a rebounder.
Simply put, these are the guys that set programs like Duke apart from the rest. And nobody knows that better than MSU. Whether it’s Kyrie Irving, Paolo Banchero, or Jahlil Okafor, the Spartans have been beaten in this spot before by Duke teams that have 1.01 NBA talent. Boozer could be that next name.
Michigan State Wins Because…
1. They Dominate the Glass
Michigan State basketball’s biggest advantage is on the boards. Not surprising with a Tom Izzo team. But I don’t see how they get the job done without a significant advantage in rebounding.
While Boozer is a great rebounder on his own, he doesn’t have a ton of help. And that makes some sense, given Duke’s roster construction that is heavy on lengthy wing players.
Per KenPom, MSU holds the advantage in offensive and defensive rebounding metrics. Duke’s defensive rebounding numbers are particularly suspect, ranking near 100th nationally. Michigan State can exploit that.
Whether it’s the size advantage the Spartans will have with Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper, or Coen Carr and Cam Ward flying in from the wing positions. I’m not taking anybody in a rebounding contest over MSU at this point in the season.
And they’re going to need it, too. We talked about Duke’s length on defense, and how deep into possessions they’re able to defend. The Spartans aren’t going to get as many clean looks as they’re used to. And they may put up some ugly attempts to beat the shot clock. That’s okay, as long as they’re able to grab some of those misses to create second chance opportunities.
Conversely, on defense, if MSU can grab Duke’s misses, it should give them the opportunity to get out in transition. ESPECIALLY, if Duke continues to launch three pointers that create long rebounds. That’s important, because the Spartans do not want this to become a half court grinder.
2. Cam Ward Plays… Effectively
It’s hard to believe that a true freshman playing fewer than 20 minutes per game could be so important in this game. But I’m sticking my neck out a bit here by saying that an effective Cam Ward is essential for Michigan State to win.
He missed the Iowa game after suffering a wrist sprain in the win against North Carolina. Indications are that he was close to playing against Iowa. Part of me wonders if Tom Izzo knows how much they’ll need him this weekend.
Physically, Ward is Michigan State’s best answer to Cameron Boozer. He gives up a little in terms of girth, but his length could give Boozer some problems. And like Boozer, Ward is comfortable battling in the paint. I used the word “battling” intentionally there. Ward will understand the challenge and take it personally. His intensity can’t be simulated.
Matchup aside, when Ward has played this season, he’s been important for MSU. Even if he isn’t tasked with guarding Boozer, he’s still an important piece in the rotation. Ward is a high-level rebounder, efficient scorer, and energy booster off the bench. We’ll see how the wrist affects his game. Because MSU likely needs more than just his presence. The Blue Devils need to feel that he’s there.
3. Breslin Center Goes Nuclear
It’s been a hell of a week for Michigan State athletics. Between the Pat Fitzgerald hire, the Greg and Dawn Williams gift, the “This is Sparta” campaign, and the blowout against Iowa, there’s a lot to smile about for Spartans.
Meaning, everyone should be in a jolly mood on Saturday as they file into Breslin Center. Under normal circumstances, this is one of the premier home court advantages in college basketball. But given the circumstances, it should be even rowdier than normal.
That’s noteworthy, because this is Duke’s first road game in a big-time environment. Yes, I know they played at Army. But with all due respect to the fine men and women at West Point, this is a different atmosphere.
Cameron Boozer hasn’t played in an arena like this. And home court advantage is the great equalizer in college basketball. We’ve already seen the Breslin crowd will MSU to one win this season. We’ve seen them do it countless times over the years. If MSU is able to get this done, you can bet the crowd will have something to do with it.
