Michigan State football opens the season on Friday night against Florida Atlantic. Let’s preview the first four games.
It’s here. It’s finally here. The longest offseason in the history of Michigan State football is finally over. Fall camp is wrapping up, and the first Spartan game week under Jonathan Smith will arrive.
With all of the flux that is this new era of college football, any preview written more than two weeks before a game kicks off becomes outdated as soon as its published (take the news of Rutgers’ star linebacker Mohamed Toure out for the year, for example). Unlike most season previews, I have decided to break Michigan State’s schedule into thirds, delving deeper onto each team (except you Prairie View A&M, sorry), and taking what we’ve learned from the previous four games into how we view the next four games.
Also, Michigan State’s opponents set up perfectly to view it in thirds, even though they are playing a 6-bye-3-bye-3 schedule. I plan to cover the final eight games in the future, but here are the thirds I am breaking this up into.
Part I
Week 1: Florida Atlantic
Week 2: at Maryland
Week 3: Prairie View A&M
Week 4: at Boston College
Part II
Week 5: Ohio State
Week 6: at Oregon (Fri.)
BYE WEEK
Week 8: Iowa
Week 9: at Michigan
Part III
Week 10: Indiana
BYE
Week 11: at Illinois
Week 12: Purdue (Fri.)
Week 13: Rutgers
This preview is dedicated to Part I, but I did want to mention some overarching highlights that I’ve noticed so far headed into the season.
First off, this team is not thought of highly. SP+ and Phil Steele has the Spartans ranked 72nd of 134 teams. The team is projected anywhere from 4-6 wins. Steele has them tied for a last place finish in the new 18-team Big Ten. The Cleveland.com Big Ten preseason poll (the defacto conference poll), has Michigan State football falling 16th. Kelley Ford of KFord Ratings has MSU 70th nationally, with a last-place finish in the Big Ten.
Notice a pattern here?
Historically speaking, the team being capable of competing year in year out for Big Ten titles is long in the rearview. Removing 2020, the team has won 10-plus games seven times over the course of 20 years, and if they are in line with the projections, they’ll miss a bowl game for a seventh time in the same span as well. The past 20 years have shown a seven-win football team able to punch up into the tier of a championship contender while also showing the ability to free-fall into the void.
Michigan State heads into the season with optimism with a new regime headed by Smith. But he has plenty of work cut out for him. There was a photo of Hitler posted on the jumbotron in Spartan Stadium and you could argue it wasn’t in the top three worst moments of the Mel Tucker era. The entire experience went as well as the high school girl rebounding off a breakup with the cool guy on a motorcycle who smokes, when it turns out the guy on the motorcycle was Bobby Petrino.
Much like Petrino, Michigan State football has to repair its national image and standing in the public eye. That starts on Aug. 30.
WEEK 1: FLORIDA ATLANTIC (HOME)
Conference: AAC
2023 Record: 4-8
SP+ Off Rating (Rk): 16.5 (122)
SP+ Def Rating (Rk): 28.7 (71)
Coach: Tom Herman
Game one under Jonathan Smith. This is a moment to set the tone on how the most optimistic fans will speak about this team. Friday night before Labor Day has been a welcomed tradition, giving fans the opportunity to enjoy their long weekend watching the rest of the country open their seasons knowing MSU has already played.
This game will be one of six being played that Friday, a chance for some good exposure on the new look MSU as well. Michigan State is projected to be a 12-point favorite in Smith’s inaugural game at Spartan Stadium. According to Michigan State captain and QB1, Aidan Chiles, hammer that number.
The Owls’ offense lose their top three leading rushers from 2023, with Zuberi Mobley taking over RB1 with only 63 yards on 22 touches last year. The MSU defense will face its first of seven new quarterback starting at their school in Cam Francher, a junior transfer coming from Marshall. FAU added six wide receivers from the portal, only two coming from the Power Four.
With the 122nd ranked offense by SP+, there is not a lot that should worry you here. As mentioned earlier, this game is about dictating what you want to do. Rossi should have every ability to force the Owls’ offense into uncomfortable situations and making things very predictable.
FAU is the first of nine opponents with a better SP+ defense ranking than their offense, which is interesting consider Herman’s background. The Owls project to have eight starters return, including senior linebacker Jackson Ambush (absolutely incredible name). Ambush led the Owls in tackles (87) and was third in tackles for loss (5.5). Ambush is one of five returning players with a sack and one of four with an interception. The experience and production of this unit guides them to a top five preseason projection in the AAC, but that is only good enough for 71st nationally. They may have enough meddle to make things at least annoying for a newly installed offense under Smith and Lindgren, but this again should be a time where Michigan State proves itself to be a class above its Group of Five opponent.
I am obviously looking for a win here, but more importantly, this has to be a clean game in terms of organization and procedure. This is the first game where in-helmet communication will be used, and while teams have practiced it in camp, there is no simulating the real thing. In installing a new scheme on both sides of the ball, players need to look organized and avoid substitution penalties, delay of game penalties, false starts, etc. This was something the Tucker teams had become synonymous with, and fans will be very quick to point to these problems still being an issue. The cleaner and more convincing a win you can make this, the more you can get people optimistic about taking down a conference counterpart on the road the following week.
WEEK 2: MARYLAND (AWAY)
Conference: Big Ten
2023 Record: 8-5
SP+ Off Rating (Rk): 24.2 (82)
SP+ Def Rating (Rk): 19 (23)
Coach: Mike Locksley
Michigan State’s first road test is the perfect bell-weather game for 2024. With the playoff & Rose Bowl placards still freshly installed, Michigan State and Maryland have been fighting one another in the tier of the “could possibly have” and “have nots”. On program stature alone, if Michigan State wants to be considered a serious team in the conference and nationally, it needs to be seen as a tier above Maryland, and be beating them on a regular basis.
As of today, Maryland has been the better team. Michigan State still leads the series history 10-4 but Maryland has picked up two of those four in the last two years by a combined score of 58-22. SP+ would suggest Maryland is a 10-point home favorite, giving the Spartans a 27.62% chance to win.
If Michigan State football is to send any signal that they’re ahead of schedule, its beating this Maryland team. Much like MSU, Maryland will be starting a sophomore quarterback in MJ Morris, who comes under Gattis and Locksley after shutting his 2023 campaign down at NC State. No, Baby Tua was not granted another year of eligibility, so he’s gone. Morris will have a pair of guys out wide and in the backfield returning with solid production in Tai Felton and Kaden Prather and Roman Hemby and Colby McDonald. Felton and Prather return after the duo combined for 1,389 yards and 11 touchdowns on 90 catches last year. Hemby and McDonald return as RB 1A/1B after going 986 yards with six touchdowns in 2023.
As noted by the SP+ rankings, this Terrapin team will have to rely on its defense to carry them through the season as Morris adjusts to a new home in College Park. The unit is projected to consist of nine upperclassmen in starting roles.
This is the first of six top 25 defenses Michigan State will face this season.
The Terps’ front seven is projected to be the best in the Locksley era, with leading tackler in 2023 linebacker Ruben Hyppolite and leading sack getter Kellan Wyatt returning in effort to minimize the loss of Jaishawn Barham to Michigan. Maryland returns their safety duo with seniors Dante Trader & Glendon Miller and added First Team All-MAC transfer Jalen Huskey at corner. Huskey’s four interceptions in 2023 fits in with a secondary that finished second in the category in 2023 with 17.
Admittedly, I’m looking less at wins and losses in 2024 and more for proof of concept, so while I think this is a gettable game for Michigan State, I am far more interested in how this game looks. Can a team ranked 121st in offensive SP+ show signs that its significantly improved, whether it be due to new scheme or just flatly better production? Can the team lean on the defense for the first time since 2018? Despite the numbers suggesting the stark gap between the two, I think these teams are looking at a mirror in one another. Both teams will need to have their experienced defensive units taking advantage of new quarterbacks adjusting to a new roster while attacking poor offensive lines to lead the other side of the ball to victory.
Bias aside, I like to think the additions of Tanner Miller and Luke Newman to the offensive line will provide enough relief for Chiles and Co. to win a squeaker against the titan that is September Maryland.
WEEK 3: PRAIRIE VIEW A&M (HOME)
Conference: SWAC (FCS)
2023 Record: 6-6
Only a few notes on this one. Needs to be a win and a convincing one at that regardless of the result at Maryland. Prairie View A&M is projected to finish second in its division in the SWAC and has one player on the preseason All-SWAC team in defensive lineman CJ Pressley. Based on very rough research, this is the first time Michigan State plays an HBCU, which is a very cool but interesting dynamic given Michigan State’s history in helping integrate college football.
Also, HBCU bands are incredible and I hope they perform at Spartan Stadium.
WEEK 4: BOSTON COLLEGE (AWAY)
Conference: ACC
2023 Record: 7-6
SP+ Off Rating (Rk): 26 (72)
SP+ Def Rating (Rk): 28.4 (69)
Coach: Bill O’Brien
Spartans travel to Beantown to match up against well known, but first year head coach Bill O’Brien. In an ideal world the Spartans are undefeated headed into this trip, but for projections sake, they will likely be looking to get halfway to bowl eligibility with a win. On a neutral site this game would be considered a pick ’em, but Boston College gets a slight nod as a 2.5 point favorite according to SP+ for being at home.
The Spartans have a 44.15% chance to win.
This is a BC team that is returning 17 total starters, nine of which on offense. Thomas Castellanos is going to be what the entire plane is made out of on this Boston College offense. The junior quarterback ran for 1,113 yards with 13 touchdowns while also throwing for 2,248 and 15 touchdowns last fall. The silver lining here is that Castellanos also threw 14 interceptions and took 20 sacks in 2023. He said at media days this summer he played the final five games with a sprained AC joint. In the final five games, Castellanos logged seven of his 14 interceptions while only accounting for eight total touchdowns. Castellanos will pose a great opportunity to see how a Michigan State defense handles a dual threat quarterback.
While the dual threat element has concerned the defense in the past, Castellanos only posted a QBR of 65.3, good for 48th in the country last year. Boston College brought in a number of transfers, including running back Treshaun Ward from Kansas State and receivers Jayden McGowan (Vandy), Jerand Bradley (Texas Tech), along with tight end Kamari Morales (UNC).
While this would be considered the best offense Michigan State football would face to date, they are in no way the daunting tasks that lay ahead later on in the schedule. Despite O’Brien’s pedigree with passing offenses, Michigan State will be facing an Eagles team that will be more run heavy than you would expect. This wouldn’t necessarily be a huge concern any other year, but losing Derrick Harmon and Simeon Barrow to the portal really puts a dent in the interior defense that may raise cause for alarm.
Although Boston College projects to return eight starters on defense, they are really putting to test the notion that is considered a good thing. The Eagles finished 129th in Defensive EPA/play in 2023. The top two tacklers and leading tackles-for-loss-getter are no longer on the roster, as is Elijah Brown, who accounted for five of Boston College’s nine interceptions. Each position group is in the bottom three in the ACC projections show. The kicker to all of this is that new defensive coordinator, Tim Lewis, has not coached college football since 1994. Lewis has not coached in the NFL since 2015.
I personally do not see why this game has a slight edge to Boston College. The atmosphere will not be tough. Sure the offense is led by the human equivalent of sticking your hand in the garbage disposal, someone may turn it on thinking its the light switch and your weekend is ruined but that probably won’t happen if you’re on top of what you need to do. In my opinion, unless Michigan State football does something to actively lose this game, they will fly back to East Lansing with a victory. Castellanos is an absolute wildcard in this matchup, but coming off matchups on the road against Florida State and Mizzou, there is potential he could be pretty beat up already coming into this matchup.
To wrap up Part I, the bare minimum here is two wins. Anything less than that, even for year one, is a concern. Beating Maryland but turning and losing to Boston College would be very annoying, but in the grand scheme of the conference pecking order, I would take it. For a shot a bowl game to be seriously considered, this should be a 4-0 start for the Spartans. There are two absolute wins on this schedule plus two very gettable games before you hit a daunting stretch of games that will make for a very long month, but that is for Part II.
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