Michigan State football: 3 key storylines and a prediction vs. Minnesota

Michigan State football will look to put a miserable October behind it as they travel to Minnesota in search of its first conference win. Here are some storylines, followed by some gambling analysis and a prediction.

1. Picking up the pieces

It’s not as if Michigan State expected to be in the college football playoff hunt this season. But when the Spartans left Bloomington, Indiana with their fourth loss in a row, it became clear that they’d need to look for ways to salvage a disappointing season.

Their best opportunity to do that was last weekend at home against Michigan. Having failed to capitalize on that chance, MSU enters the final third of their schedule looking for motivation. At 3-5, a bowl game is still possible, however unlikely it may feel. Maybe that’s the rallying cry for Jonathan Smith this week. Because outside of that, things feel incredibly bleak.

At this point, it feels inevitable that Jonathan Smith will be dismissed at season’s end. In 2025, that means complete coaching and roster overhaul will follow. The locker room is not immune to outside noise. They understand the situation. That makes it completely fair to question MSU’s focus level heading into this game.

On the other side, Minnesota will be looking to pick themselves up after getting boat raced a week ago against Iowa. A pick six and a special teams touchdown allowed that game to snowball on the Gophers, as they went into halftime trailing 31-0.

At 5-3, though, Minnesota has an opportunity to get to 8 wins and position themselves nicely for a favorable bowl game over the holidays. After MSU, Minnesota travels to Oregon before finishing with winnable games against Northwestern and Wisconsin.

In his ninth season at Minnesota, P.J. Fleck has established a good foundation in Minneapolis. He’s an expert at motivating his team. Concerns of a downward spiral with the Gophers are minimal, considering that Fleck has finished under .500 in the regular season just twice in his nine seasons.

The pressure is on MSU to show up here. Off a blowout loss, Minnesota will be anxious to take out some frustration. It’s up to the Spartans to determine the amount of resistance they want to give.

2. Darius Taylor

Minnesota’s best player is running back Darius Taylor. He’s battled injuries throughout the season and is once again questionable for Saturday. The Gophers have had Taylor’s full services available for three games this season. They won all three of those games, with Taylor averaging over 100 yards per game.

Despite his limited availability, he’s still the leading rusher for Minnesota on the season. If he’s unable to go, Minnesota will be relying on a pair of freshmen in Fame Ijeboi and Grant Washington.

That’s important, because Minnesota’s offense relies heavily on the ground game. Under P.J. Fleck, it’s no secret what Minnesota wants to do. They want to control time of possession, play conservatively, and run the ball.

On paper, they should be able to do that against MSU. The Spartans are now giving up almost 150 yards per game on the ground. And they have some key players uncertain for Saturday’s game. Space eater Ben Roberts was tagged as “doubtful” by Jonathan Smith on Monday. Linebacker Jordan Hall is also questionable after leaving the Michigan game with an injury. He wears the green dot for Joe Rossi’s defense, adding to the challenge.

Taylor carried the ball just once against Iowa. It’s hard to know if the score had anything to do with that or not. But if he is able to go, this is an ideal matchup against a wounded MSU defense that may not want to be there to begin with.

3. Michigan State’s quarterbacks

Jonathan Smith hasn’t given any indication that there will be a change at quarterback. This is more of a personal projection. And I fully expect Aidan Chiles to start for MSU. But I’m not confident he finishes.

Chiles isn’t solely to blame for MSU’s offensive struggles. He’s also not blameless. The offense showed some promise at Indiana, despite only scoring 13 points. In games against Nebraska, UCLA, and Michigan, though, it’s been a tough watch.

Alessio Milivojevic has looked good enough in his limited opportunities to warrant some interest. There were whispers that he would get a series or two against Indiana even with a healthy Chiles. That was scrapped once Chiles settled into a rhythm.

But I’m guessing at this point in the season, given the circumstances, we see him in some capacity in this game. If he plays well, he might play more. This is a Michigan State football team that is desperate for any kind of spark. A QB change, even temporary, could give them something.

Prediction

Believe it or not, Minnesota is only a 3.5-point home favorite this weekend. As usual with Minnesota games, the total is low, at 44.5.

To be honest, this line makes no sense to me. Factoring in home field, Vegas sees these teams as equals on a neutral field. Removing all the context surrounding this game, maybe that’s accurate. But the spreadsheets can’t account for the spot Michigan State finds themselves in.

The Spartans are on “quit watch”. To their credit, they haven’t phoned it in yet. But it feels as if it could happen at any minute. The first quarter of this game should be telling. We know Minnesota will be anxious to get after it after being embarrassed in Iowa City.

Amazingly, Michigan State football is 4-0 against the spread this season as an underdog, and 0-5 against the number as a favorite. Maybe that’s keeping this line tight. Because other than that, there’s not a lot to be excited about for MSU in this spot.

At the same time, I’ve watched this Minnesota offense too many times over the years to be comfortable handing out 3.5 points in any scenario. And the fact that this line is as short as it gives me pause.

Instead, I’ll be looking to play into the game script that coincides with this total. I’m looking at Michigan State under 20.5 points. My thinking is that Michigan State’s defensive injuries will allow Minnesota to run the ball with some consistency. Their tempo, which is painfully slow, will allow them to own time of possession in this game.

As a result, the Spartans could wind up with fewer offensive possessions than normal. That’s troubling for an inconsistent offense that could be rotating quarterbacks. Throw in some unhealthy offensive lineman, along with a Minnesota defense that is well schooled, and I’m sold.

Prediction: Minnesota 27, Michigan State 17