Michigan State football: 3 key storylines and a prediction vs. Nebraska

Michigan State football returns to action after a bye week for another conference road game. The Spartans will be traveling to Lincoln, Neb., for the first time since 2018. Both teams lost their conference opener, and both had a bye week to lick their wounds. The loser of this game will be 0-2 in the Big Ten and is essentially eliminated from conference championship contention.

Here are three storylines to watch, along with a gambling angle, and a prediction.

1. The line of scrimmage

The biggest weakness with Nebraska is their play in the trenches. The Huskers rank outside the top 100 in rushing defense, allowing almost 174 yards per game. That’s with two dominant victories against Akron and Houston Christian. Both Cincinnati and Michigan averaged over 6.5 yards per carry while rushing for over 200 yards.

Nebraska has also been very average at running the ball themselves, ranking 87th in the country in yards per game. But, again, against Cincinnati and Michigan, Nebraska ran the ball 67 times for just 153 yards (2.3 yards per carry).

The burning question is whether or not Michigan State football will be able to take advantage of those weaknesses. The Spartans have been a decent running team, with over 100 yards in all four games, and eight rushing scores on the season. Their rush defense was gashed two weeks ago at USC but has been stout in their other three games.

Both teams are more comfortable leaning on their quarterbacks to move the ball. But the team that’s able to find some balance with a running game will be more difficult to defend. The preference to throw the ball will be complicated by the weather. Heavy winds are expected on Saturday in Lincoln, potentially making the running game even more important.

But as dreadful as Nebraska has been defending the run this year, Michigan State can match their futility with their pass rush. The Spartans have six sacks in four games, and zero against power four opponents. Dylan Raiola isn’t a finished product. But he has improved from a year ago. And if MSU allows him to get comfortable in the pocket, he’s more than capable of winning this game without the help of a ground attack.

2. Quarterback rollercoasters

Speaking of Raiola, he deserves more of the spotlight in this preview. Heading into this week, only Texas Tech is averaging more passing yards per game than Nebraska. That’s largely due to Raiola. He’s been phenomenal to start this season. His accuracy has improved, as he’s completing almost 76 percent of his passes. And after tossing 11 interceptions a year ago, he’s only thrown one so far in 2025.

But Michigan State has a pretty good quarterback of their own. In his second season as a full-time starter, Aidan Chiles is playing just as well. He also owns an impressive 9-1 touchdown to interception ratio. Improved receiver play and a steady running game has helped his development. And Michigan State’s offense has been rolling as a result.

With neither team expected to dominate in the run game, this likely comes down to quarterback play. Which guy can make the most plays. And, more importantly, who can avoid the big mistake.

Raiola has the obvious advantage because Michigan State’s pass defense has issues. The Spartans rank outside the top 100 in passing yardage allowed and have made both power four quarterbacks they’ve played look extremely comfortable.

On the other side, Aidan Chiles will have to navigate the airwaves against what is currently the best passing defense in the country. Now, it’s worth pointing out that Nebraska’s most formidable opponents this season are heavy run-oriented offenses. And the Huskers’ issues in the run game haven’t forced the opposition into passing.

Nonetheless, Nebraska hasn’t allowed more than 105 yards in any game this season while surrendering just one passing touchdown.

But the advantage that Chiles has over Raiola is his mobility. Bryce Underwood (Michigan) and Brendan Sorsby (Cincinnati) gave this Huskers defense fits with their scrambling ability. Raiola is the complete opposite. Perhaps that makes life a little easier for MSU’s pass rush. But it should be fascinating to watch these gunslingers duel.

3. Big plays

Only James Madison has allowed fewer plays of 20-plus yards than Nebraska. The Huskers have surrendered six such plays in four games. And while Michigan State football isn’t as reliant on big plays as they were a year ago, they’re going to have to hit some to win on Saturday.

The Spartans will undoubtedly look to use talented receivers Nick Marsh and Omari Kelly to test this Nebraska secondary. We’ll find out if those gaudy pass defense statistics are legitimate or not.

But don’t sleep on the Spartan ground game, either. MSU is a top 50 team when it comes to creating rushing plays of 10 yards or longer. Against this Nebraska front, we could see MSU bust a big run or two.

Defensively, Michigan State has given up 18 explosive plays in their four games. For reference, that’s slightly above the national average. But that’s important here because Nebraska has not been a good red zone team. The Huskers rank 90th in the country in touchdown percentage, with 14 on 24 trips.

It feels obvious to say that Nebraska is going to have success moving the ball. But the key for Joe Rossi and MSU might be preventing “the big ones”. If the Spartans can limit explosives, and force Nebraska to execute in the red zone, they might be able to do enough for MSU’s offense to keep pace.

Prediction

Nebraska is an 11.5-point home favorite against Michigan State football. Concerns with the wind have forced this total down to 48.5.

On the surface, this line feels way too high. I’m not sure what Nebraska has done this season to be priced as a two-score favorite in this spot. They were fortunate to beat Cincinnati in their opener and were thoroughly beaten by a one-dimensional Michigan team two weeks ago.

At the same time, Michigan State’s results haven’t aged well, either. MSU needed two overtimes to beat a Boston College team that does not have a win against an FBS opponent. And after getting gashed by USC, the Trojans lost to Illinois as a touchdown favorite the following week.

So, what does Vegas know? Because this line feels telling. Either Nebraska is much better than they’ve shown, or Michigan State is truly a bottom five team in the Big Ten.

Sometimes, they don’t know anything. And I’m leaning towards that thought process here. It might be a trap. But I also said that about the total in MSU’s game against USC. That hit with ease. I’ll take my chances again.

Off the bye week in 2024, Michigan State put together their most complete game of the year in an upset over Iowa. I think the bye week came at a good time again this year. The Spartans should be relatively healthy, and it sounds like Nick Marsh is closer to 100% than he was against USC.

And maybe it’s the fan inside of me, but I do believe this is a hungry group that has a sour taste in their mouth after not finishing well against USC.

We’ll get Michigan State’s best effort here. And Jonathan Smith continues to start games off well with scripted drives. Keep an eye on this Huskers passing attack early, too. Time off is generally not good for passing oriented offenses, as it disrupts their timing and rhythm.

Those factors are leading me to play Michigan State +6.5 in the first half. The full game spread scares me because I’m not confident MSU’s defense can play 60 minutes of mistake free football. And Jonathan Smith has too many second half duds for me to trust it in a tough road environment.

Michigan State football puts together 45, maybe even 50 minutes of good football. But they’ll need 60.

Prediction: Michigan State 20, Nebraska 31