Michigan State football: 3 key storylines and a prediction vs. USC

Saturday night’s USC vs. Michigan State football game isn’t expected to be close, but the Spartans are looking to make a statement.

Coffee. Red Bull. Celsius. Whatever your preference is when it comes to caffeinated beverages, make sure you’re stocked up for this weekend. Because you’re going to need it if you want to stay up and watch Michigan State football play USC at the Coliseum in Los Angeles.

Beyond the absurd kickoff time, here are three things to watch for on Sunday morning (lol).

1. Michigan State’s injuries       

The No. 1 storyline in this game is the health of the Spartans. MSU went one for two in accomplishing their goals last week against Youngstown State. They won the game. But they did not avoid the injury bug.

We know for certain MSU will be without starting offensive lineman Luka Vincic. Jonathan Smith confirmed that would be a “long-term” injury. The same can be said for kick returner Alante Brown.

But the questions lie with starting running back Makhi Frazier and phenom wide receiver Nick Marsh. ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported on Friday afternoon that both are expected to play.

That’s huge news for Michigan State football, if true. It’s hard to overstate how important Nick Marsh is to MSU’s offense. Difference maker. Game-wrecker. Whatever cliché you want to use for Marsh, it applies. He leads the Spartans with 16 receptions and is the only wide receiver to catch a touchdown this season. His status is even more critical for the Spartans because this is going to be a game with a lot of scoring.

Through three games, even adjusting for weak opponents, this USC offense is sizzling. Our concerns with MSU’s defense in the preseason appear to be valid. Michigan State’s best chance to win this game involves scoring. A lot.

Marsh’s status will draw all the attention. But Frazier could be just as important. He’s separated himself as both a ball carrier and a pass protector. Backup Brandon Tullis has missed two blocks in three games, both resulting in sacks. Elijah Tau-Tolliver hasn’t been efficient with his carries, but it’s fair to point out that he hasn’t had many opportunities.

With the way USC is going offensively, I’m skeptical that a fully healthy MSU offense could keep pace with the Trojans. Shorthanded, the task becomes even more difficult. Even with MSU’s two key playmakers trending in the right direction, it’s impossible to know how effective they’ll be or how much they’ll be used.

2. What is Joe Rossi’s plan on defense?

It’s amazing how much the perception of Michigan State’s defense has changed because of one subpar game against Youngstown State. Yes, the Penguins moved the ball. Yes, they scored 24 points. Yes, that’s concerning. Does that make Michigan State’s defense atrocious? Maybe. Maybe not.

At the very least, they’re in trouble this weekend. Because USC is that good. This Trojan offense can hang 40 on any defense in college football. USC leads the nation in yards per game with a whopping 604 per contest. They are averaging 55 points per game. Quarterback Jayden Maiava has thrown for 989 yards without an interception. Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane are dynamic receivers. And just for fun, USC’s top two running backs are averaging over seven yards per carry.

Under Rossi, this MSU defense has really struggled to get to the quarterback. It was a glaring issue last season. And it doesn’t appear to be much better this year. As a result, the Spartans typically play it safe, opting for a “bend don’t break” style that keeps plays in front of them, forcing the opponent to sustain drives.

If Rossi thinks that will work against USC, I have some beachfront property in Idaho I’d like to sell him. He’s got to take some chances in this game. USC is too talented and has too many weapons to sit back in coverage and rally to the ball.

Now, one area where the Spartans have been good is against the run. Everybody associates Lincoln Riley coached teams with an aerial assault. And while that is true, they still need a reliable running game to get rolling. If MSU can hang tough in the running game, they’ll give themselves a chance to get off the field on third downs.

But listen, it’s USC. It’s Lincoln Riley. They’re going to score. The question is how much, and how efficiently. By hook or by crook, MSU needs to create negative plays and turnovers – yes, multiple – to have a chance in this football game.

3. Is USC vulnerable on defense?

Michigan State’s defensive questions have dominated the storylines this week. But USC may have some problems of their own. The Trojans allowed over 300 yards passing last week at Purdue. And through three games against bad competition, USC has allowed 10 passes of 20+ yards.

That’s an area MSU is capable of exploiting. Mind you, Aidan Chiles will be the best quarterback D’Anton Lynn and the USC defense has faced. Even with a questionable Nick Marsh, MSU has capable receivers in Omari Kelly and Chrishon McCray to test the Trojan secondary.

But this could all be a moot point if USC is able to get to the quarterback. The strength of their defense is their defensive line. USC leads the nation with 14 sacks. And Michigan State has given up eight, good for 113th in America.

But again, it’s fair to point out who that sack production has come against. MSU’s offensive line should provide a little more resistance than Missouri State and Georgia Southern. And if those same teams found success against the USC secondary, you would think there’s a path for Michigan State to score.

It further emphasizes the importance of Nick Marsh. If he can go without limitation, this game becomes a lot more interesting because the USC defensive backfield is vulnerable. If, and it’s a big if, Chiles has time to throw, and #6 is out there, the Spartans have a puncher’s chance against almost anybody.

Prediction

USC opened around a 15-point favorite at home in Los Angeles. People have been betting the Trojans like they know the final score, as the line is all the way out to 18.5. The total in this game is set at 54.5.

That type of line movement is typically bad news for the team being bet against. Serious money makes lines move like that. And serious money typically knows something.

But you don’t have to be a Vegas shark to see that this is a horrendous matchup for Michigan State. The Spartans weaknesses play right into USC’s strengths, on both sides of the ball.

Through three games, we’ve seen some cracks in the foundation of this Michigan State team. And for as much discussion as USC’s schedule has generated, it’s not as if MSU has played elite competition either.

Until proven otherwise, I wouldn’t back Jonathan Smith’s Spartans as a big underdog. They were rolled in similar situations last season against Oregon and Ohio State. And even though USC isn’t on par with those teams yet, I fear the Spartans are running into USC at the begging of their ascent.

But I’ve got no interest in laying a big number here either. There’s too much backdoor potential with Chiles and the USC secondary. And the Trojans are entering a murderous stretch of their schedule. Lincoln Riley will get his starters out at the first opportunity.

It feels obvious. And it might be a trap. But I’m walking into it anyway. But if Nick Marsh is playing, then give me the over in this game. I’m not sure how many stops Michigan State can get. And at 54.5, USC might get 80 percent of this by themselves. It’s a homecoming for Aidan Chiles, so I’d expect him to play deep into this game even if it becomes lopsided. MSU’s offense can chip in enough to push this over. But it could be a long flight home for Joe Rossi and the Spartan defense.

Prediction: Michigan State 24, USC 42