Michigan State football hosts Ohio State on Saturday night hoping to pull off a massive upset. Here are some keys and a prediction.
It’s the last weekend in September, which means non-conference play moves to the rearview mirror. Big Ten season is here. Michigan State football will welcome Ohio State to Spartan Stadium on Saturday for their first conference home game.
With multiple games of data and observations, it finally feels like we have a better idea of who these teams will be this season.
Here are three things to watch for with the Buckeyes and Spartans.
1. Michigan State’s defensive line and linebackers
Another week, and another test for Michigan State’s front seven. The good news is that the assignment doesn’t get tougher than this. The bad news is that this test comes a week after a physical game against Boston College.
After being bullied by Michigan the past three seasons, Ryan Day emphasized becoming a more physical team. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s power run scheme figures to be a perfect fit for that strategy. Ohio State comes into the game averaging over seven yards per carry, good for second in the nation.
The Buckeyes have been lethal on first down this year. Nearly 57 percent of their total rushing yards have come on first down. Ohio State is averaging over eight yards per carry on first down, meaning they rarely find themselves in second or third-and-long.
That’s made life easier for quarterback Will Howard as well. Through three games, the Kansas State transfer has been as good as Ohio State could have hoped, with nearly 800 yards and six touchdowns. With opponents terrified of the running game, it’s no coincidence that Ohio State has been just as successful on early downs with their passing attack.
Ohio State’s rushing stats may be inflated due to their competition. But not by much. This is a monumental test for a Spartan defense that is allowing only 96 yards per game. They have to find a way to stuff their share of run plays – especially on early downs. If they can put Will Howard and this offense in some obvious passing situations, then they should be able to force some stops.
At the same time, Michigan State doesn’t have the talent in the secondary to consistently sit in coverage against Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka. Nobody does. So, that’s where Michigan State football is going to need its linebackers and rush ends to knock Howard off schedule.
To this point, they’ve shown that they can do that. The Spartans rank in the top 10 nationally in sacks and tackles for loss. Howard isn’t particularly mobile, so generating pressure and flushing him from the pocket might be enough to kill some plays.
This is Michigan State’s only path to keeping this close. We’ll touch on MSU’s offense later, but so far this season, they’ve been inconsistent at best. It feels unlikely that they can go score for score with the Buckeyes. If Ohio State has their way on first down, that opens the playbook for Chip Kelly. These Buckeye receivers can shred any secondary in America. Michigan State is no exception. It will be a long night if Michigan State can’t hang in there up front.
2. Nick Marsh’s status
Michigan State football received a good bit of news on Thursday when they gave receiver Jaron Glover the green light to return on Saturday. But the most important piece for this Michigan State offense remains questionable. True freshman receiver Nick Marsh has quickly emerged as Aidan Chiles’ favorite target.
Marsh missed the Boston College game, and Michigan State’s passing game suffered. Quarterback Aidan Chiles completed just 17-of-35 passes, with zero touchdowns and three interceptions. He also missed a couple of throws deep downfield. That’s been the case with every receiver this season except for Nick Marsh. He’s been the one guy that Chiles can’t seem to overthrow. Per Action Network, on throws attempted over 20 yards, Aidan Chiles is 6-for-25 with five turnover-worthy plays.
That’s significant because aside from big passing plays, I don’t see how Michigan State moves the ball against Ohio State. Granted, their schedule has been weak. But Ohio State has allowed two touchdowns in three games. They rank in the top 10 in America in both rush and pass defense.
As expected, this Michigan State offense is a work in progress. It’s an extremely inconsistent group that suffers from too many zero-yard gains in the running game, penalties, protection breakdowns, and turnovers. That last point is key. Through four games, Chiles has eight turnovers by himself.
The book is out on how to frustrate him. Get pressure. Against it, he’s thrown six interceptions. That feels like a problem with a battered offensive line against one of America’s best defensive units.
But as he showed against Maryland, Aidan Chiles is also a home run hitter. He’s shown the willingness to keep chucking it deep. If he can connect on a few, maybe that’s enough offense to keep Michigan State in this game. But he needs Marsh in order to do it. He’s the most explosive player for the Spartan offense. We haven’t seen that connection develop between Chiles and the rest of his receivers.
3. Does Michigan State belong?
It feels like an offensive question to Michigan State and its fans. But when you’ve been outscored 195-42 over the last four meetings, the question is warranted. In 11 years, Michigan State football has gone from the only program in the conference that could beat Ohio State to the one the Buckeyes look forward to playing the most.
The expectation on Saturday is more of the same. Ohio State will come to East Lansing as 24-point favorites. To be fair to MSU, Ohio State may be the best team in America. If that is the case, they’d be heavy favorites against almost everyone. However the disparity between the two programs should not look as large as it has since 2020.
Even some of the worst teams from the Mark Dantonio era were able to make Ohio State work for three quarters. A similar outcome on Saturday would feel like a small victory by itself.
The obvious advantage for Michigan State in this game is their readiness. At home, Ohio State has been at least a 37-point favorite in all three of their wins. Conversely, the Spartans have been tested with road games at Maryland and Boston College. Ohio State’s talent may be overwhelming, but MSU has been in the mud with quality competition this year. They should be ready.
But you can bet that Ryan Day realizes everything that was written above. First conference game. First road game. He’ll look to make a statement early. Can Ohio State land that first punch? If so, how does Michigan State handle it?
There are a lot of new players on the MSU roster getting their first crack at the Buckeyes. There are also plenty of veterans who have experienced the Ohio State avalanche. This is Jonathan Smith’s first test at Michigan State against a top-five opponent. I’m fascinated to see how he mentally prepares this group for their biggest home game of the season.
Prediction
Ohio State is a 23.5-point favorite with a total sitting around 48.5. This number opened around 25 and has come down towards Michigan State across the key number of 24. This spread seems high when you consider the corpse of the 2023 Spartans were also 24-point underdogs at home against the eventual national champions.
Coming home off a crushing loss against Boston College, I do think this is a good spot for Michigan State football. At night, on Mark Dantonio night, I think we’ll get a good effort from the Spartans. Aidan Chiles is the type of high-variance quarterback that you want to back as an underdog because of his big play ability.
The problem is, it’s a bad spot to bet against Ohio State. Ryan Day will use the “unproven” narrative as motivation. As mentioned above, the Buckeyes will be looking to make a statement against their first opponent with a pulse.
I expect Ohio State to start fast. And I expect Michigan State to hang tough. This one won’t get totally out of hand, but the only outcome in doubt will be the spread. MSU sneaks inside the number with a late touchdown to cover.
Final: Ohio State 35, Michigan State 14
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