Michigan State football: 3 keys and a prediction vs. Illinois

Michigan State football returns to action for the final quarter of their season this Saturday against Illinois. The Spartans hit the road for the final time in the 2024 season, looking for their second true road win of the season.

Here are the keys to the game, an analysis of the gambling line, and a prediction.

1. Michigan State’s defensive line

Many Michigan State fans are familiar with the statistic. But it bears repeating because it’s almost impossible to believe. Michigan State hasn’t recorded a sack since Sept. 21 against Boston College. In Big Ten play, the Spartans have one. If they can’t get one on Saturday, then it’s probably safe to assume they won’t get one for the rest of the season.

Illinois has surrendered 28 sacks this season, the most in the Big Ten. They also rank last in the conference in tackles for loss allowed with 68. To make matters worse, this is an Illinois offensive line that has started to endure some injuries. This should be a game where Michigan State’s pass rush while uninspiring, can stall some drives.

It’s even more important for MSU to put some pressure on Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer because the Spartans are getting thin in the secondary. After losing Dillon Tatum early in the season, Jonathan Smith said it’s unlikely that MSU will get cornerback Chance Rucker back either. Both Malik Spencer and Charles Brantley were injured against Indiana. Their status remains questionable. If neither are able to go, the Spartans will be down all four of their preseason starters in the secondary.

While nobody will confuse Luke Altmyer with Patrick Mahomes, even he should be capable of picking apart a depleted MSU secondary. The Fighting Illini have a couple of NFL prospects at receiver in Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin. They figure to hold a sizable advantage over the youthful Michigan State football defenders.

But the Spartans can negate that by getting some pressure on Altmyer. As he goes, so does this Illinois offense. And recently, with the injuries up front mounting, Altmyer has been going poorly. During the sackless streak, MSU has played some of the better offensive lines in the conference. This will not be one of them. There is no excuse on Saturday. It’s put up or shut up time for the boys up front.

2. Quarterback play

It was mentioned briefly above, but when Luke Altmyer is on, Illinois’ ceiling is raised drastically. Through six games, Altmyer was completing nearly 70 percent of his passes with 16 touchdowns and just one interception. Those numbers were a huge reason Illinois was able to start 5-1. Since then though, he’s been far less effective. In games against Michigan, Oregon, and Minnesota, Altmyer’s completion percentage has plummeted below 54 percent to go along with seven total turnovers.

For Michigan State, it’s a similar story. When Aidan Chiles isn’t turning the ball over, this offense has shown some promise. Michigan State is currently second in the Big Ten in time of possession. They are also last in red zone scoring percentage. MSU has been able to move the ball and sustain drives. They just can’t finish.

Chiles is exactly the type of player this Illinois defense likes to see. It’s a “bend don’t break” defense for Bret Bielema that thrives off turnovers. In their six wins this season, Illinois is plus nine in turnover margin. In their three losses, it’s minus five.

The numbers suggest that this Illinois defense can be run on. They’ve also been pretty average against the pass. MSU is relatively healthy at the skill positions on offense, so there figure to be opportunities for Chiles in this game. He has to keep that in mind and play for the next play if things break down.

Similarly, against this MSU secondary, Altmyer and Illinois should have a decisive advantage on the outside. But he’s got to be more accurate than he’s been over the past month for Illinois to move the ball consistently.

3. Jack Velling

Can Michigan State football find a way to get this guy going? It’s been a pretty disappointing first season for Velling in East Lansing. He’s yet to eclipse 80 yards in a single game and has not caught a touchdown this season. Off a bye week, I’d expect the Michigan State coaching staff to look harder at ways to get one of their best players involved.

This should be a good matchup for Velling too. Several tight ends have had big days against this Illinois defense. In addition, Illinois will be without a couple of key defenders on Saturday. Linebacker Dylan Rosiek was lost for the season due to injury. Starting safety Miles Scott will miss the first half of this game due to a targeting penalty against Minnesota.

Those defenders are key to Illinois’ defense. They could prove problematic against a difficult matchup like Velling. He’s not a big play threat, with a long of 34 yards on the season. But he should be key on third downs. Illinois boasts one of the worst third-down defenses in the Big Ten.

Off the bye week, without a couple of key defenders, look for Jack Velling to bust out of his slump. He might be worth a look as an anytime touchdown scorer if betting is your thing.

Prediction

Illinois is a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5 points. This line is very telling. Despite the uneven records, the power rankings see these teams as equals. If a couple of bounces go the other way for either team, their records could be about even as well.

Theoretically, this is a good spot for both teams. Illinois and Michigan State football are coming off bye weeks, after a home loss, with favorable November schedules to try and finish the year strong.

Still, I wouldn’t advise anyone to bet Michigan State here. While I do think they’ll be able to run the ball, I have significant concerns about the players they’ll have available on defense. On top of that, Chiles can’t seem to shake the turnover bug. Even if MSU can dominate this game statistically, Chiles is capable of giving it all back with a play or two.

At the same time, I’m not exactly rushing to my phone to bet on Illinois. Bret Bielema has not been good as a favorite at Illinois. Memorial Stadium doesn’t possess a great home-field advantage, and while this is senior day in Champaign, I’m not anticipating a raucous environment. Luke Altmyer has been trending in the wrong direction, and injuries along the offensive line and defensive side of the ball give me pause.

You can run the ball against Illinois. Will Michigan State football be able to? I’m not confident. Theoretically, Illinois should eat against this MSU back seven. Will they? Again, I’m not sure. Will either team be able to protect the ball? Who knows.

There are games throughout the season where you truly don’t have a strong opinion. For me, this is one of them. But this line feels too short. That usually means Vegas knows something. Give me the Spartans.

Final score: Michigan State 24, Illinois 21