Michigan State football: 3 keys and a prediction vs. Purdue

Well, folks, the good news is that Michigan State football will be playing on Friday night at Spartan Stadium. The bad news? I can’t guarantee it will be particularly thrilling. The Spartans and Boilermakers will fight for superiority in the basement of the Big Ten on a cold, dark, November evening in East Lansing.

Here’s what to watch for as Michigan State continues its quest for a bowl game.

1. Purdue’s defense

Awful. Terrible. Horrendous. Those are words that come to mind when describing this Purdue defense. You can pick any stat you’d like, and you’ll find Purdue last, or near last, in the Big Ten. Scoring defense, rushing defense, total defense, interceptions, fumble recoveries, and opponent red zone conversions are all categories where Purdue ranks dead freaking last in the conference.

Only Utah State, Ball State, and Kent State allow more points per game (38.9) than Purdue. In seven games against FBS opponents, Purdue has only held their opponents under 30 twice while allowing five opponents to score at least 40.

They cannot stop the run – allowing over 200 yards per game. They can’t get off the field on third down, allowing over 48 percent of attempts to be converted. They’ve given up the most plays that gain at least 10 and 20 yards in the conference. And they are dead last in the Big Ten in time of possession, meaning this unit is on the field a ton.

For as critical as people have been with this Michigan State football offense, they haven’t faced a unit at the FBS level like this all season. Aidan Chiles and the offense should be salivating at the opportunity to take a turn against Ryan Walters’ defense. If there was ever a spot for this offense to “get right”, it’s right here.

At the same time, that also comes with some pressure. If Michigan State can’t move the ball against this sieve of a unit, things will get uncomfortable inside Spartan Stadium. But if I’m Brian Lindgren and Jonathan Smith, I’m lining up under center and running it at Purdue until they prove they can stop it. They haven’t all season. In game No. 11, it’s unlikely they find what they’ve been missing.

2. Michigan State’s secondary

If there’s an area where Purdue has an advantage Friday, it’s with their passing offense. Quarterback Hudson Card is an experienced passer who has flashed some promise in the past. He may look the best he has all season on Friday against a depleted Michigan State secondary.

Jonathan Smith confirmed after the Illinois game that cornerback Charles Brantley and safety Malik Spencer are finished for the season. That means Michigan State’s entire starting secondary from the preseason is on the shelf.

The Spartans will be relying on reserves and inexperienced players again this week. The trial run against Illinois did not go well. Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin had their way last weekend, and Michigan State was only able to get their hands on one Luke Altmyer pass. While Purdue doesn’t have those kinds of weapons at receiver, they do have a good tight end in Max Klare.

While this is an air raid attack for Purdue, they’ve found more success running the ball, averaging over 4.5 yards per carry. Michigan State has been decent against the run, so I’d be surprised if this isn’t a pass-heavy game plan from the Boilermakers.

You know the stat by now. It’s been six games since Michigan State football recorded a sack. That means Card should have time to sit back and let routes develop. If he’s able to get into a rhythm, we could be in for a bit of a shootout. But if MSU can hang tough in coverage, they should come up with enough stops. After all, this is still the worst offense from a scoring perspective in the conference at just 17 points per game.

3. Motivation

This was alluded to in the open, but this game on Friday is as “off the radar” as you can get with Big Ten football. At 1-9, without a win against an FBS team, Purdue is playing for pride, and perhaps their head coach’s job. How much does that matter to them? We’ll find out.

Michigan State, in theory, is the one with something more to play for. They can become bowl-eligible with wins against Purdue and Rutgers to close their season. Do they care about that? Do bowl games mean what they used to? Again, we’ll find out.

At this point in the season, “showing up” is not as much of a given as it was in September and October.

To make matters worse, Spartan Stadium isn’t going to provide much juice. The state of both teams, combined with the cold weather and the ridiculously late start time, is going to keep a lot of MSU fans at home.

Sometimes you’re the lamp, other times you’re the generator. On Friday night, these teams might have to find more self-motivation than normal. That’s where leadership can be key. I’ll be curious to see if this is a spot where Chiles’ captaincy is validated. It’s been a tough season, but this game represents a rare opportunity for this offense to find some swagger. We should find out a lot about the character of this MSU football team on Friday night.

Prediction

Michigan State is a two-touchdown favorite at home. The total is sitting at 48.5. Here is some free, unsolicited financial advice. Do not bet on this game. Take the money and donate it to the MSU NIL fund. Or your local animal shelter. Better yet – buy someone important in your life a nice gift.

Because while this line is telling of how bad this Purdue team is, Michigan State football shouldn’t be trusted with your money. Off a bye week, they weren’t impressive in any phase of the game in a 22-point loss to Illinois. And don’t forget, these teams feel the same way about each other. MSU looks at Purdue as an opportunity to take out some frustrations. But Purdue is looking at the Spartans as their last chance to get a Big Ten victory.

Because of that, nothing would surprise me. The atmosphere and feelings surrounding this game are rather sad. Both fan bases expected better this season.

Michigan State hasn’t been favored since their game against Prairie View A&M. They shouldn’t be giving two touchdowns to anybody. Their tendency to commit penalties and turn the ball over makes them liable to lose to anybody.

Still, Michigan State has Nick Marsh, Nate Carter, and Montorie Foster to throw at a bad Purdue defense. As long as Aidan Chiles doesn’t lose the turnover battle, MSU should be able to score. Outside of an outlier performance against Illinois, this Purdue offense has been as lifeless as their defense. Even with a wounded MSU secondary, I’m not sure Hudson Card has the receivers to take advantage. It won’t be a work of art, but Michigan State keeps their bowl hopes alive.

Final score: Purdue 17, Michigan State 31