Michigan State football: 3 keys to victory and a prediction vs. Michigan

The Paul Bunyan trophy is up for grabs on Saturday in Ann Arbor. Michigan and Michigan State football will meet for the 117th time. This will be the first time since 2008 that neither team is ranked. It will also be the first time since 1928 that both teams will enter the rivalry game with at least three losses.

For Michigan, this is a chance to stop the bleeding and salvage part of a lost season by their standards. For Michigan State, it’s all about opportunity. The opportunity to beat Michigan on the road was a thought that felt preposterous in August.

It’s here now. Let’s get into the keys to the game and a final score prediction.

1. Michigan’s quarterbacks

When discussing your game plan, it’s never good when referring to quarterbacks (plural). It’s the most important position in football. But less is more. As the saying goes “If you have two quarterbacks, you don’t have any quarterbacks”.

In Michigan’s case, they’ve got three. Davis Warren, Alex Orji, and Jack Tuttle have all played extensively this season. They’ve all been abysmal. Combined, they’ve thrown for fewer than 900 yards across seven games. That’s good for 130th in America. The Wolverines rank 133rd with 5.4 yards per pass attempt to go along with nine total interceptions.

It’s downright shocking to see the passing offense from the defending national champions on par with service academies and Louisiana Monroe. But through seven games, this is who they are. If there were a solution on the roster, it would have been discovered by now.

Last weekend’s loss against Illinois felt like the end of the road for Jack Tuttle. The final numbers weren’t bad. But the Wolverines could only muster seven points against an Illinois defense that surrendered 48 to Purdue the week before. Sherrone Moore declined to name a starter this week, perhaps an indication that change is imminent.

Whoever gets the call, Michigan’s problems remain the same. They can’t throw the ball effectively. When opponents don’t have to respect that, they can sell out against the run. You can bet Joe Rossi and this Michigan State football defense will have a similar plan. They got a taste of it last weekend against Iowa and dominated.

Michigan doesn’t need to throw for 300 yards to win this game. But they need to be better than they’ve been. This is a Michigan State run defense that’s proven to be above average. The Wolverines are going to have to find a more balanced attack to win this game. Without it, we’re likely looking at a similar box score as we saw against Illinois.

2. Will Johnson and Brian Lindgren

If you’re unfamiliar with Michigan’s roster, Will Johnson is a name you should know. The defensive back earned All-American honors in 2023 and projects to be a first-round pick in the NFL draft next spring. He’s currently battling an ankle injury that kept him out of the game against Illinois. His status in this game is massive.

Michigan State’s most dynamic receiver is true freshman Nick Marsh. After catching eight passes for 113 yards against Iowa, he’s no longer a secret. Marsh’s emergence has been particularly helpful to quarterback Aidan Chiles. His worst game of the season came against Boston College when Marsh was unable to play. But when Marsh is healthy, as he was against Maryland and Iowa, the difference with the MSU passing attack is noticeable.

If Johnson is able to go, you can bet Michigan defensive coordinator Wink Martindale will find a way to get his best player on Marsh. That leads directly into the conundrum that MSU offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren faces.

If Johnson plays, how is he going to scheme ways to get his best playmaker the ball? Chiles has been particularly good at finding Marsh deep downfield. If Johnson is in coverage, that becomes more difficult. It’s complicated by the fact that this Michigan defensive line is filled with game wreckers. Deep routes mean slower-developing plays, relying heavily on your offensive line to hold up. And we’ve seen what happens when Chiles faces pressure.

If Johnson can’t go, that feels like a huge advantage for Michigan State football. At the same time, Lindgren still has to be mindful of Michigan’s ability to get to the quarterback. With a limited offense on the other side, balancing that aggression with a conservative game plan becomes challenging.

3. Turnovers

It’s a Michigan State football game in 2024 so you know we’re talking about turnovers. In a very rare turn of events, the Spartans are looking down at their opponent in turnover margin. The Wolverines come into the game Saturday with a -7 turnover margin on the year, one worse than Michigan State.

Michigan has turned it over in every game this season. They’ve had more games with three turnovers (3) than one (2).

For Michigan State, the turnovers have gotten better. “Better” is a relative term, considering MSU handed it over to their opponents 10 times over the first four games. They’ve limited their turnovers to one in each of their past two games.

The Chiles interceptions have been a result of poor decision-making, especially against pressure. He’s going to face some from Mason Graham, Josaiah Stewart, and the rest of this Michigan defensive line. How he handles that, and whether he can get out of a couple of sacks will be the key for MSU’s offense.

For Michigan, their turnovers have been correlated to bad quarterback play. Regardless of who starts, the numbers suggest that Michigan State football is going to have a couple of chances in this game to take the ball away. They’ve got to be ready to pounce.

Of course, all turnovers are not created equal. This is not projected to be a high-scoring game. Wasted red zone opportunities or short fields given via turnover are going to be crucial. Both teams will be looking to avoid “the big one”.

Prediction

Michigan is currently a five-point favorite with a total of 39. This line movement has been interesting to watch throughout the week. Michigan State opened around +6.5 and took money all the way down to +3.5 at some spots. Michigan money came in later Thursday, driving the number back up.

I’m not going to overthink this. I trust what my eyes are telling me. Michigan looks broken. Moore sounds like a coach who is feeling the pressure. If Michigan was going to find something, we would have seen it coming out of the bye week. Instead, it was more of the same.

Keep in mind that this is a group of Michigan players who are used to playing for Big Ten titles and College Football Playoff berths. Those dreams died last week.

Michigan State football has the better coach. They have the better quarterback, regardless of who plays for Michigan. They’ve also got belief and momentum. Unlike Michigan, the Spartans have had this game circled. Their championship aspirations died a while ago. After getting taken to the woodshed in the past two meetings, you can bet there are a lot of Spartan players salivating at this opportunity.

For what it’s worth, Jonathan Smith is 16-7 against the spread as a road underdog of three or more. He’s already covered a similar number twice this season in road games at Maryland and Boston College.

I trust MSU’s coaching staff to scheme together a couple of scoring drives a heck of a lot more than Michigan’s. If the Spartans can play from ahead, and put Chiles in conservative spots, they should be able to lean on their rushing defense and special teams to get home.

Final score: Michigan State 16, Michigan 14