Michigan State football: 3 storylines and a prediction vs. Boston College

Michigan State football gets their first true test of the season when hosting Boston College. What are the storylines and a prediction?

It’s time for Week 2 action. After a thorough beating of Western Michigan, Michigan State football will look to keep the momentum going in East Lansing against Boston College. These two teams met a year ago in Chestnut Hill, with Boston College winning 23-19.

Here are three storylines, a wager, and a prediction for Saturday’s proceedings.

1. Will the real MSU offense please stand up?

Last week’s opener against Western Michigan felt like two completely different games for the Spartan offense. Michigan State football came out of the gates storming, with two touchdowns on their first two possessions. The MSU offensive line got a push that we haven’t seen in years, and it looked like the Spartans would be able to name the score.

But, after building a 21-0 lead at halftime, MSU’s offense came out of the locker room disjointed and clunky. The Spartans’ only points after the break came via safety.

Optimists would point to the fact that with a large lead, and a formidable opponent on deck, MSU didn’t need to show anything more from their offense. And while that may be true, it’s also true that there were enough mistakes to make you question if what you saw in the first half was legitimate.

So, that’s the big question heading into Saturday. Which MSU offense is closer to the truth? Although we didn’t learn much about Boston College during their blowout win against Fordham, it feels safe to assume their defense is a step up in class.

Michigan State football killed themselves in this game a year ago with the same types of mistakes in execution that we saw in the second half against the Broncos. If they’re sloppy again, I’m not confident this roster has enough room for error to win.

Snap counts from Week 1 show that MSU’s coaching staff is still trying to find their five best offensive linemen. If you can pull your attention away from the ball on Saturday night, that’s something to keep an eye on. We know Jonathan Smith and Brian Lindgren want to run the ball. We saw how much easier things look for this offense when they’re able to do it.

2. Will Boston College find some balance?

Again, it’s always hard to find definitive takeaways when an FBS team takes an FCS team to the woodshed. But if we’re going to nitpick, the Eagles’ inability to run the ball last week is noteworthy.

Starting quarterback Dylan Lonergan threw for 268 yards and four touchdowns. Backup Grayson James tacked on an additional 190 yards.

However, on 39 attempts, Boston College was only able to generate 97 rushing yards. In the words of Mad Men’s Peter Campbell, 2.5 yards per carry against Fordham is “not great, Bob!”

Boston College’s longest carry from a running back was only eight yards. That’s concerning, because Michigan State was excellent against the run in Week 1, holding Western Michigan to 1.21 yards per attempt.

Now, it’s fair to point out that the Eagles were explosive through the air. Wide receiver Lewis Bond, who caught the go ahead score against MSU last year, is going to be a problem for the Spartan secondary. Dylan Lonergan is an Alabama transfer and former four star recruit out of high school.

But life on offense might not be as easy against Michigan State if the Eagles’ offense remains this one-dimensional. Michigan State played a ton of different guys on defense last week. The FS1 broadcast insinuated that it was part of defensive coordinator Joe Rossi’s plan. Mix personnel, provide different looks, and try to confuse the opposing quarterback.

This will be Lonergan’s first road start. Spartan Stadium should be loud for the late kickoff. An effective run game is a young quarterback’s best friend in that scenario. If BC can’t establish that, that puts a lot on Lonergan’s plate. You have to like MSU’s chances in that scenario.

3. Special teams and coaching

Michigan State’s injuries at kicker remain an ongoing problem. Reports on Friday morning indicated that redshirt freshman Martin Connington is expected back. Blake Sislo handled extra points in Week 1. Nobody knows what this might look like on Saturday. Starting punter Ryan Eckley attempted MSU’s only field goal against Western Michigan. He had plenty of distance from 46 yards out, but it missed well left.

The Spartans built up a big enough lead for the kicking game to remain a non-factor. But in a game that figures to be much closer, it’s a huge component to monitor. Keep in mind, with the betting total of set at 45.5, points figure to be at a premium. How much does Jonathan Smith trust his kicking game?

To make matters worse, it feels like the pressure in this game is squarely on Michigan State. This is a fan base that is ready to see progress, especially against a team they feel they should have beaten a year ago. This is not a “win or you’re fired” game for Smith by any means. But it is extremely important from a “vibes” standpoint.

Michigan State football’s next home game against an FBS opponent isn’t until Oct. 11. With two tough road games between now and then, MSU could be looking at 2-3 if they’re not able to win this game. At that point, it’d be an uphill climb to get to a bowl game. And people’s attention would likely turn towards the basketball team.

Does that play a role here? Does Smith feel the pressure? Because if it does, there’s a good coach on the other sideline that’s able to take advantage of it. While it’s not a widely known fact yet, it is worth pointing out that Michigan State football has been outscored in the second half in 10 straight games.

That’s coaching. It’s a small sample size. And some of that should be expected given last year’s roster. But until proven otherwise, the coaching advantage in this game belongs to Bill O’Brien and Boston College.

Prediction

Michigan State opened as a three-point favorite at Spartan Stadium. The Spartans have taken some money, with the line now sitting at MSU -4.5. The total keeps falling and currently sits at 45.5.

Conveniently, these teams played 12 months ago. Michigan State won the box score but lost the game. Remember, Nick Marsh did not play.

Boston College lost a lot from the 2024 team. A couple of their offensive linemen are now in the NFL. Edge rusher Donovan Ezeiruaku was drafted in the second round. And we saw how good quarterback Thomas Castellanos can be last Saturday against Alabama.

On top of that, I do think this Michigan State team is better than they were a year ago. How much better is still to be determined. But they are deeper along the offensive line. Omari Kelly looks like a quality Big Ten receiver. And I think Joe Rossi can put together a game plan against Lonergan, who is not the mobile threat that Castellanos was.

With all that said, I’ve got no interest in laying more than a field goal with this MSU team. Western Michigan found some success throwing downfield. It is worth noting MSU will be without starting safety Nikai Martinez. That’s certainly a concern against this BC aerial attack.

I initially thought I’d end up playing the under in this game. But it’s come down enough for me to change my stance. This game finished 23-19 last year in a driving rainstorm. I was there. And it was miserable. That game also featured a goal line stand from MSU, and a limited offensive game plan without Nick Marsh. Well, Marsh is back. I think the Spartan offense has improved. Boston College wants to throw it. And Saturday’s weather looks beautiful.

I trust Jonathan Smith here. I think he understands the importance of this game. Under the lights, at home, I am confident the Spartans will be ready to go. Give me points. And give me the Spartans.

Prediction: Boston College 24, Michigan State 28