Michigan State football: 3 storylines and a prediction vs. Penn State

Michigan State football hosts Penn State on Senior Day with a first Big Ten win on the line. Here’s what to watch for.

The Land Grant Trophy is on the line Saturday in East Lansing. Penn State and Michigan State football will renew an old rivalry that has seen more interesting matchups. But, hey, at least the winner on Saturday will get a trophy for finally winning a game in Big Ten play.

Here’s what to watch for.

1. Michigan State’s quarterbacks

We don’t know who will get the start for the Spartans, but it feels like we’ll see MSU use two quarterbacks regardless. Alessio Milivojevic played well enough two weeks ago against Minnesota to warrant a second look.

The redshirt freshman hung in under poor circumstances, completing 20-of-28 passes for 311 yards and a touchdown. And while he wasn’t perfect, MSU’s passing game showed some juice for the first time in weeks

And while Michigan State can point to officiating as a key reason they lost that game, the red zone struggles were equally as frustrating. For that reason, I think we’ll see Aidan Chiles in certain packages. His running ability has been MSU’s best offense at points this season. And it’s been effective in the red zone.

The trick for Jonathan Smith is managing that rotation. He has to substitute without making the offensive intentions obvious. He also can’t be afraid to change his mind, depending on how the game goes.

It’s amazing to say it about a 3-6 team on a six game losing streak. But MSU likely has two signal callers that they feel comfortable riding with at any point this weekend

2. Penn State’s motivation

What does Penn State have left in the tank? This is a team that had national championship aspirations as recently as two months ago. Their coach has been fired. They have no marquee games left. And the atmosphere in Spartan Stadium isn’t exactly going to get the juices flowing.

On top of that, the Nittany Lions are coming off three extremely physical games against three of the best teams in the league. Their last two, Ohio State and Indiana in consecutive weeks, might be the two best teams in America.

Those games, against superior opponents, take a toll physically and mentally. And last week’s loss to Indiana was as crushing as you’ll ever see. There’s a nonzero chance the Hoosiers beat Penn State again this week.

The Nittany Lions are saying all the right things. And their results suggest that they’re still battling. But interim coaches are like backup quarterbacks in the NFL. There’s an initial bump that looks promising. But in most cases, the more you see of them, the worse it gets.

3. Michigan State’s health

Nobody is in the mood to make excuses for Jonathan Smith. But it’s hard to ignore the fact that Michigan State football has been one of the most injured teams in the country for most of the season.

We’ll see if the bye week helped with any healing, because there are a number of starters that could be back.

Jonathan Smith indicated that starting RB Mathis Frazier and slot receiver Chrishon McCray were trending in the right direction. Defensive tackle Ru’Quan Buckley should also return.

We’ll see about offensive lineman Stanton Ramil and Kristian Phillips. Both missed the Minnesota game, but were also not tagged with season ending injuries.

Linebacker Jordan Hall is also a name to watch. He was clearly playing through an injury against Minnesota. We know he’ll go if he’s able to. But as the green dot on defense, his status is worth monitoring

Space eating defensive tackle Ben Roberts is also an important piece for Joe Rossi’s defense. He’s a key run defender, and his impact would be massive against Penn State’s ground game.

Prediction

Michigan State is a 7-point underdog in this battle of 3-6 foes. The total is 50.5.

If the only Penn State game you watched this season was last week against Indiana, you’d probably feel like betting your mortgage on the Nittany Lions to win by at least a touchdown.

And they still might. But it feels like a trap.

The Spartans are playing better on defense since Joe Rossi’s move to the sidelines. And the recent QB change appears to have worked. Now, off a bye, back home, I think we’ll get a good effort from MSU. This is, after all, the final game in Spartan Stadium for the Michigan State football seniors.

Yes, Penn State has played up to better competition of late. But don’t forget, they also played way down to it earlier this year.

And why would you want to bet against Jonathan Smith as an underdog? Despite being 0-5 outright as an underdog, Smith has covered the number in all five losses this season.

I’m getting the feels I had with the Iowa game from last year. With two weeks to prepare, and two QBs at their disposal, I’m betting on Smith and Co. to put together a solid game plan. Penn State’s interim coach bump wears off. MSU brings the energy to a lifeless Spartan Stadium. And they take back the Land Grant Trophy. Spartans. Outright, for a change.

Prediction: Penn State 24, Michigan State 27